2. Venezuela: The revolution at the point of no return¶
Core Argument¶
This chapter argues that Venezuela’s revolutionary process under Hugo Chávez had reached a decisive turning point by late 2002, where the only viable path forward was the socialist overthrow of capitalism. The core narrative thrust is that the failed April 2002 coup—defeated by a spontaneous mass uprising from Caracas’ poorest districts—demonstrated both the revolutionary potential of the working class and the fatal weakness of Chávez’s reformist leadership. The author contends that Chávez squandered a historic opportunity by refusing to call on the masses to seize power, instead attempting to conciliate the counter-revolutionaries. As a result, the balance of forces shifted: the bourgeoisie regrouped, using the judicial apparatus to prepare a “legal” coup.
Key evidence includes the Supreme Court’s August 11 acquittal of four senior military officers who led the April coup, a decision the chapter interprets as a deliberate move to delegitimise Chávez and lay groundwork for his impeachment. The text notes that Chávez’s MVR party retained only a small parliamentary majority, while cracks opened within the government itself. The economic crisis is presented as the most immediate threat to Chávez’s base: a fiscal deficit exceeding 8 percent of GDP, inflation between 25 and 40 percent, over 15 percent unemployment, and capital flight of $80 billion. The UN Human Development Index is cited to show 23 percent of Venezuelans living on less than one dollar a day, with real income per capita projected to fall to 1961 levels.
The chapter draws on classical Marxist theory of revolution and counter-revolution, invoking the necessity of a vanguard party, armed insurrection, and proletarian internationalism. It explicitly polemicises against “urban guerrillaism” and individual terrorism, citing disastrous precedents in Argentina and Uruguay, and insists instead on mass uprising led by the working class. It also attacks Chávez’s conciliationist strategy, the Supreme Court’s “legal” cover for reaction, and the formation of the Solidarity Party by ex-minister Luis Miquilena as a rallying point for counter-revolution. The text warns that without a general mobilisation, arming of the masses, and expropriation of the bourgeoisie, the revolution will be lost. It concludes by calling for the Socialist United States of Latin America as the only guarantee of final victory.