3. The Strange Story of the Kaiser and the Tsar¶
Core Argument¶
The Austrian attack on Serbia did not automatically trigger a general European war. The Russian Foreign Minister, Sazonov, initially favoured only partial mobilisation against Austria, hoping to exert diplomatic pressure. Yet this very move pushed Germany closer to its ally and accelerated Austrian aggression. The Russian ruling class could not countenance another humiliation after the 1908 Bosnian crisis; to abandon Serbia would be to destroy Russia’s status as a great imperial power. The Russian clique was itself divided, torn between the German alliance and the Entente. A secret 1905 defence treaty between the Tsar and Kaiser had already been rendered worthless by Sergei Witte, then dominant in the Russian government, who insisted it required French approval—effectively killing it.
In July 1914, the Kaiser and Tsar exchanged telegrams. The Kaiser urged Russia to halt mobilisation and accept Austria’s crushing of Serbia. The Tsar proposed arbitration at The Hague, which was rejected. As Russian mobilisation proceeded, the Kaiser’s tone hardened; he dropped friendly forms of address and insisted Russia must demobilise or bear sole responsibility for war. The Tsar’s weakness only emboldened the Kaiser. The Tsar’s claim that halting mobilisation was technically impossible was in fact political: he could not overrule his generals. The Kaiser demanded immediate withdrawal of the Russian mobilisation order, which would have meant humiliating surrender and loss of great-power status. Germany’s circular to its ambassadors stated that Pan-Slavic agitation aimed to destroy Austria-Hungary, weaken the Triple Alliance, and isolate Germany, obliging Germany to side with Austria-Hungary.
Italy broke from the Central Powers, judging Austria’s ultimatum too aggressive. The Italian bourgeoisie, weak but imperially ambitious, sought territorial gains through diplomatic manoeuvres. When the Central Powers offered insufficient rewards, Italy negotiated with Paris and London, which promised large Adriatic territories—parts of Tyrol, Dalmatia, and Istria—in the secret Treaty of London. Mussolini, initially anti-war as a socialist, switched by October 1914, was expelled from the Socialist Party, and moved toward fascism. Italy entered the war on 26 April 1915 but was cheated of promised rewards at Versailles. By 1918, 600,000 Italians were dead, 950,000 wounded, and 250,000 crippled; the war cost more than the previous fifty years’ spending, ruining the country with inflation and unemployment, leading to mass strikes and factory occupations.