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Core Argument¶
This chapter delivers a sharp self-critique of the Revolutionary Communist Party’s (RCP) recent conjunctural error, while reaffirming the long-term strategic perspective inherited from the Fourth International. The core argument is that the party mistakenly telescoped the inevitable long-term crisis of British imperialism into an immediate post-war collapse. In reality, a concatenation of temporary factors has produced a conjunctural upswing, delaying the catastrophe.
The chapter enumerates these factors with precision. The destruction of war has created vast markets for capital goods, especially machinery, which Europe and the world desperately need. Germany has collapsed as a competitor; America has been paralysed by unprecedented strike waves in basic industries. Domestically, the desperation of British imperialism compels rationalisation and new capital investment in coal, steel, and cotton, while the Blitz-induced housing shortage fuels a building boom. The fusion of finance capital with the state is accelerating: projected nationalisations of mines, steel, transport, and fuel, alongside controls on capital export and investment, mark a clear tendency toward state capitalism. Lavish state subsidies—rebates on excess profits tax, subsidies to cotton barons and food and chemical trusts—prop up the structure, all at the expense of the British masses. The US loan, granted to secure Britain as a future base against the USSR, further tides over the economy. Exports already exceed pre-war levels, yet the balance of trade remains unfavourable; the loan will be swallowed by capitalist needs.
The chapter’s theoretical context is Marxist crisis theory, specifically the distinction between secular decline and conjunctural fluctuation. The polemic is internal: the RCP is arguing against its own previous over-rapid prognosis. The mistake was not in the long-term perspective—British imperialism faces inevitable catastrophe—but in failing to recognise the temporary relative stability produced by war’s aftermath and US patronage. The chapter insists that the party’s eyes must be open to the upswing, because it is on this basis that the proletariat’s immediate evolution will depend. Before a new radicalisation lifts workers to higher levels of struggle, deep economic and political transformations will occur. The growth of the revolutionary party and its ties to advanced workers depend on a correct prognosis of this period. The tone is rigorous and self-critical, not defensive: the error is acknowledged, but the strategic line is reaffirmed.