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Why is Europe falling apart A Marxist analysis AGAINST THE STREAM

Against The Stream · 2026-05-07

Here is the structured analytical summary of the Against the Stream episode, “Why is Europe falling apart? A Marxist analysis.”

Core Argument

The central thesis is that Europe is undergoing a profound and terminal structural crisis, not a temporary downturn. This crisis is driven by the inability of European capitalism to overcome its fundamental contradiction: the necessity for a unified, continent-wide economic and political space to compete globally, versus the reality of competing national capitalist classes, each tied to their own nation-state. The episode argues that the post-war “European miracle”—built on the twin pillars of the American security umbrella and a long economic upswing—has definitively ended. The result is a forced, painful transition from a “welfare state” to a “warfare state,” where the costs of rearmament, geopolitical decline, and inter-imperialist rivalry are being loaded onto the working class. The only way out, the episode concludes, is not deeper integration under capitalism (a utopia) or a retreat to national sovereignty (a dead end), but a socialist United States of Europe achieved through working-class revolution.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis is firmly rooted in the classical Marxist tradition, specifically the theory of imperialism as developed by Lenin and Trotsky.

  • The Contradiction between Productive Forces and the Nation-State: The core of the argument is that the productive forces (technology, industry, the world market) have outgrown the national framework of the European state. The episode explicitly invokes Trotsky’s 1923 article on the United States of Europe, arguing that Europe’s national borders are now a barrier to further economic development. This is a direct application of the Marxist law of uneven and combined development.
  • Inter-Imperialist Rivalry: The fragmentation of Europe is not presented as a bureaucratic failure of the EU, but as the logical expression of inter-imperialist rivalry. Germany, France, and Britain are analysed as distinct imperialist powers with competing national capitalist interests, particularly in arms production, energy policy, and trade relations with the US and China. The episode uses the failure of joint European arms projects (fighter jets, tanks, shell production) as concrete evidence of this rivalry.
  • The End of the Post-War Order: The analysis situates the current crisis within the long-term decline of American imperialism. The post-war period is understood as an exceptional phase of capitalist expansion and class compromise (the welfare state), which is now exhausted. The US is no longer willing to underwrite European defence and is actively “sucking the continent dry” through expensive LNG and arms sales, accelerating the crisis.
  • The State as an Instrument of the Capitalist Class: The episode rejects reformist illusions in the EU or national governments. The state, whether in Brussels, Berlin, or Paris, is consistently presented as the executive committee of the national bourgeoisie, incapable of acting against its own class interests.

Conjunctural Relevance

The episode is highly specific to the conjuncture of early-to-mid 2025, grounding its theoretical claims in concrete data and events.

  • German Rearmament and Social Cuts: The analysis centres on Germany’s announced €1 trillion rearmament plan. It directly links this to the €38 billion in cuts to healthcare and pensions, citing a Financial Times article that explicitly states Europe must “trim its welfare state to build a warfare state.” This is presented as the central political dynamic of the moment.
  • The US-Germany Split: The episode uses the public clash between Trump and Chancellor Merz over troop withdrawals and tariffs as a symptom of a deeper rift. It argues that the US is pivoting to confront China, forcing Europe to bear the costs of its own defence, a burden it cannot afford without destroying its social fabric.
  • The Failure of European Arms Production: The episode provides specific data: the failure of the EU’s pledge to produce 1 million artillery shells for Ukraine (achieving only half the target, late and at double the cost), and the ongoing conflict between French Dassault and German Airbus over a joint fighter jet. This is used to prove that national capitalist competition prevents a unified military-industrial response.
  • The Energy and Industrial Crisis: The analysis highlights the destruction of German heavy industry, with energy-intensive production down 17% from 2021 levels due to the loss of cheap Russian gas and reliance on expensive US LNG. This is presented as a direct, self-inflicted wound from the sanctions regime.
  • The Rise of China: The episode notes China’s strategic investments in Europe (e.g., EV factories in Spain and Hungary) and its dumping of overcapacity, which is undercutting European industry. This creates a new axis of tension, as countries like Spain seek to court Chinese investment while others demand tariff barriers, further fragmenting the EU.

Where the Argument Continues

This episode is a synthetic application of the RCI’s core theses to a specific region. The argument deliberately leaves open the question of the form the coming class struggle will take.

  • The “Way Out”: The episode outlines three false solutions (deeper EU integration, national populism, centrist reformism) before stating the Marxist alternative: a socialist United States of Europe. It does not, however, develop a concrete transitional programme for how to get from the current crisis to that revolution. This is a deliberate choice, as the podcast’s purpose is to frame the crisis, not to provide a tactical manual.
  • The Class Struggle: The episode repeatedly states that the working class “will be forced to fight back” and that social upheaval on a scale not seen since the 1930s is coming. It does not, however, analyse the current state of the labour movement, trade union strategies, or the emergence of new forms of struggle. This thread is continued in other Against the Stream episodes that focus on strikes, protests, and political developments in specific European countries.
  • The Global Context: The analysis focuses on Europe but is framed within a global crisis of American imperialism. The argument is continued in episodes on the war in Ukraine, the rise of China, and the crisis of the US dollar, which together build a picture of the terminal crisis of the entire world capitalist system.

Connections

  • Trotsky, Leon. “The Slogan of the United States of Europe” (1923): The episode directly quotes and relies on this text, which argues that Europe’s national frontiers are a fetter on its economic development and that only a revolutionary federation can solve the crisis.
  • Lenin, V.I. “On the Slogan for a United States of Europe” (1915): The episode quotes Lenin’s argument that a united Europe is impossible under capitalism, or can only be a reactionary alliance of great powers for colonial plunder.
  • Other Against the Stream Episodes: The analysis of the “end of the post-war world order” and the crisis of American imperialism is a recurring theme. Episodes on the war in Ukraine, the US-China trade war, and the global energy crisis provide the necessary context for the European analysis presented here.
  • The Draghi Report (2024): The episode references this report as the establishment’s own diagnosis of Europe’s productivity decline, using it to show that even the capitalist class understands the problem of fragmentation but is incapable of solving it.

Key Quotes

  1. “Europe must trim its welfare state to build a warfare state.”

    • (Quoting the Financial Times, this captures the central political trade-off of the conjuncture.)

  2. “The fact that Europe is not one single capitalist nation state but it's a collection of different imperialist powers. Each one with their own national capitalist class which has their own national interests which are very unwilling to relinquish in favor of some European project.”

    • (This is the theoretical core of the argument, explaining the failure of European unity.)

  3. “Europe cannot develop economically within the state and customs frontiers imposed at Versailles. Europe is compelled either to remove these frontiers or to face a threat of complete economic decay. But the methods adopted by the ruling bourgeoisie to overcome the frontiers it itself had created are only increasing the existing chaos and accelerating the disintegration.”

    • (Quoting Trotsky, this provides the historical and theoretical precedent for the entire analysis.)

  4. “For 80 years people got used to a welfare state in Europe... But this is come to an end. This is no longer tenable. And this is it. This is the end of it. We need a warfare state rather than a welfare state.”

    • (Summarising the end of the post-war class compromise and the brutal logic of the capitalist class in crisis.)

  5. “The alternative is the socialist United States of Europe. That is the expropriation of the capitalists, the big monopolists, the big banks, the big finance companies that control our lives and the use of these resources in the benefit of the majority in a planned, democratic plan of production.”

    • (The episode’s positive conclusion, stating the revolutionary alternative to decay and war.)