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Core Argument

Against The Stream · 2026-05-14

The central thesis is that Donald Trump's trip to China in 2017 — far from being a negotiation from strength — represents a watershed moment in the decline of US imperialism. The argument is that Trump's Iran war, intended to deprive China of oil and strengthen the US bargaining position, has comprehensively backfired. Instead of forcing Chinese concessions, the US has depleted its military stocks, lost control of the Strait of Hormuz, and exposed its inability to project power against a "second-rank" power. Meanwhile, China has used the crisis to consolidate its position: it has secured energy supplies through Russian pipelines, built up strategic reserves, maintained control over rare earth refining, and now holds the upper hand in negotiations over Taiwan. The episode claims that the US is now in a position analogous to Britain before the First World War — deindustrialising, overcommitted, and dependent on its rival for industrial and even military technology.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis draws on the Marxist theory of imperialism, particularly the Leninist and Trotskyist traditions. It understands US decline not as a matter of poor leadership or bad strategy, but as the inevitable outcome of the internal contradictions of a mature capitalist power that has passed from monopoly to parasitism. The episode explicitly invokes the concept of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall — Jorge Martin notes that as the organic composition of capital rises in China, new investments become less productive and less profitable, signalling that China too will eventually hit its own limits. The analysis also draws on Trotsky's theory of uneven and combined development: the US is an "old, senile, decrepit imperialist power" while China is a "young, dynamic, youthful, exuberant power" at a different stage of capitalist development. The episode situates itself within the tradition of the Revolutionary Communist International, rejecting any notion that China represents a socialist alternative — it is capitalist, but its state-directed model gives it a temporary advantage over the more financialised US economy. The argument that "the country that is developing the best does so because it has enormous amounts of state intervention" is presented as a "damning indictment of private property."

Conjunctural Relevance

The episode is set in November 2017, during Trump's first official visit to China. It references specific contemporary events: the US tariffs on Chinese goods, the January 3rd attack on Venezuela, the Iran war, and the failure of Operation Freedom — the US attempt to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which lasted only 24-36 hours. The episode cites a CIA report that Iran retains 70% of its pre-war missile stockpiles and 70-80% of its mobile launchers, while US missile stocks have been depleted to the point where replacement will take 3-5 years — stocks that were supposed to defend Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and Europe. It references two key articles: Christopher Caldwell in the New York Times declaring "America is officially an empire in decline," and Robert Kagan in The Atlantic describing the Iran defeat as "checkmate" — a strategic loss that "can neither be repaired nor ignored." The episode also notes that US consumers have paid $37 billion extra in fuel prices since the conflict began, that inflation is at 3.8% and rising, and that a Global Pulse poll found America named the biggest global threat in 65 out of 85 countries surveyed — including 45% of Taiwanese respondents.

Where the Argument Continues

The episode deliberately leaves open the question of how China's own internal contradictions will develop. It acknowledges that China is reaching its own limits — the rising organic composition of capital, the problem of overaccumulation in a protectionist world market, and the impossibility of China extracting itself from the crisis of world capitalism. The argument that "China can produce more steel than the whole world economy can absorb" points toward future conflicts between imperialist blocs. The episode recommends Ted Grant's Will There Be a Slump? as the key text for understanding the post-war economic upswing and its limits. The broader argument about the crisis of US imperialism and the rise of China is developed across multiple Against the Stream episodes, particularly those dealing with the Iran war, the situation in Venezuela, and the changing geopolitics of East Asia. The Spectre of Communism series would be the place to look for the more theoretical elaboration of the Marxist analysis of imperialism and the state-capitalist character of China.

Connections

  • Ted Grant, Will There Be a Slump? — recommended in the episode as the key text for understanding the post-war boom and its limits.
  • Zbigniew Brzezinski, The Grand Chessboard — referenced as the classic statement of US strategy to keep Eurasia divided.
  • Trotsky's theory of uneven and combined development — implicitly underpins the comparison between US decline and Chinese ascent.
  • Lenin, Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism — the theoretical foundation for understanding parasitism and the export of capital.
  • Other Against the Stream episodes — particularly those on the Iran war, Venezuela, and the changing balance of power in East Asia.
  • The RCI's analysis of state capitalism — the framework for understanding China as capitalist but with a greater role for state planning.

Key Quotes

  1. "It's a damning indictment of private property that the country that is seen to be developing the best does so because it has enormous amounts of state intervention in its economy."

  2. "In the '90s, being an ally of America was indispensable if a political party wanted to gain anything. Today it is a liability."

  3. "The United States is an old, senile, decrepit imperialist power and China is a young, dynamic, youthful, exuberant power."

  4. "The weakness of US imperialism strengthens the anti-imperialist struggle everywhere in the world and it is therefore a progressive factor."

  5. "China doesn't have a solution for the world's working class. Russia doesn't have a solution for the world's working class. Only the world working class have a solution — by taking power into their own hands."