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What is behind the rise of Reform UK

Against The Stream · 2025-05-08

Core Argument

The central thesis of this episode is that the rise of Reform UK is not primarily a story about racism or the far-right, but a symptom of the terminal crisis of British capitalism and the complete political betrayal of the working class by the Labour Party. The argument is that Reform UK is filling a vacuum created by the left's abandonment of class politics. The Labour government under Starmer is carrying out vicious austerity cuts—targeting pensioners, disabled people, and public services—while the organised left responds not with a class-based alternative but with "lesser evilism," urging people to vote for the very parties responsible for the conditions driving them toward Reform. The episode claims that Reform UK voters are not irredeemably reactionary; they are angry, desperate, and open to radical ideas, but the left has vacated the terrain of class struggle, leaving Nigel Farage to pose as the only anti-establishment voice.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis draws on a classical Trotskyist framework, particularly the theory of the degeneration of the labour movement and the critique of class collaboration. The episode explicitly references the 1930s and the mistakes of the Communist and Social Democratic parties in opening the door to fascism by refusing to break with the bourgeois establishment. The concept of the "vacuum" is central: when the traditional parties of the working class abandon any pretence of representing workers' interests, reactionary populists step in to channel genuine class anger into racist and nationalist directions. The analysis also deploys a Marxist understanding of the parasitic nature of British capitalism—the shift from productive industry to financial speculation, asset-stripping, and the systematic underinvestment that has left infrastructure crumbling. This is not presented as a moral failing but as the logical outcome of the tendency toward financialisation and the dominance of fictitious capital in a declining imperialist power.

The episode sits firmly within the revolutionary Marxist tradition that rejects the "lesser evil" strategy and insists that the only way to defeat the far-right is through an independent, class-based revolutionary programme that targets the real enemy: the capitalist class and its political representatives.

Conjunctural Relevance

The episode is anchored in the May 2025 local elections in Britain, which saw Reform UK win 677 council seats (41% of those contested) on 31% of the vote. The key data points are:

  • Labour lost control of Durham County Council—held for over a century and home to the Durham Miners' Gala—receiving just 4% of the vote there
  • The combined vote share of Labour and the Conservatives fell below 50% for the first time
  • A safe Labour parliamentary seat (Runcorn and Helsby) was lost to Reform by six votes
  • Labour lost 187 councillors while Reform gained 677
  • The Liberal Democrats became the second-largest party by council seats gained

The episode connects this directly to specific Labour government policies: the removal of the winter fuel allowance for pensioners, cuts to Personal Independence Payments (PIP) affecting an estimated 700,000 families, and the broader context of destitution—3.8 million people (including 1 million children) unable to afford basic essentials in 2022, a figure that more than doubled in five years. The episode also highlights that one in six workers had skipped a meal in the previous three months due to lack of money.

The conjuncture is defined by a ruling class that has lost all legitimacy, a working class in desperate conditions, and a political establishment that cannot even comprehend the anger it has created—exemplified by Starmer's bafflement at public outrage over his acceptance of thousands of pounds in free gifts.

Where the Argument Continues

The episode deliberately leaves open the question of what happens when Reform UK actually takes power in local councils and faces the same structural constraints that have discredited Labour and the Tories. The argument is that Reform will inevitably be exposed as unable to deliver, and the anger will find a new outlet. This thread is developed in other Against the Stream episodes covering the rise of Trump, the AFD in Germany, and the broader phenomenon of "populist" right-wing movements as distorted expressions of class anger. The episode also points toward the need for a revolutionary communist party capable of intervening in the coming waves of class struggle—a project the RCI is explicitly building. The book about the 1930s mentioned in the episode (presumably an RCI publication) develops the historical parallel between the current period and the rise of fascism, arguing that the same political mistakes are being repeated.

Connections

  • Trotsky's writings on fascism and the united front – particularly the critique of the "lesser evil" strategy and the insistence on independent working-class action
  • The RCI's analysis of Trump and the US conjuncture – parallel arguments about Sanders' betrayal creating the conditions for Trump's rise
  • The German situation – the AFD's rise and the Left Party's (Die Linke) collaboration with the establishment, explicitly discussed in the episode
  • The Birmingham bin workers' strike – presented as an example of genuine class struggle that Reform UK is opportunistically exploiting
  • The "We Demand Change" initiative – criticised as a watered-down, class-collaborationist project that fails to offer a socialist alternative

Key Quotes

  1. "The two party system is now in a terminal crisis. Reform is officially the main opposition party with the collapse of the Tories. Which means that the British ruling class is losing control."

  2. "The fact that low tax bonfire of red tape DOGE fan Nigel Farage is now banging the drum for nationalising the commanding heights of the economy is extremely telling."

  3. "The choice really is between Labour and Reform in most workplaces... This should be a wakeup call to Labour leaders and trade union leaders who've been tail-ending the Labour leadership."

  4. "The main enemy is in the boardrooms, in the stock market. It's big business. It's the commanding heights of the economy. It's the political establishment that represents these people. These guys are sideshows compared to the main enemy."

  5. "If you aim your guns at the main enemy on a class-based revolutionary programme, these guys will also disappear. That's what we saw with Corbyn—as soon as he started talking radical talk, UKIP disappeared."