Against the Stream: Trump-Netanyahu clash, India-Pakistan war, and revolutionary movement in Serbia

Against The Stream · 2025-05-15

Core Argument

The central thesis of this episode is that the current conjuncture is defined by a dual crisis: the relative weakening of US imperialism's capacity to impose its will globally, and the simultaneous emergence of revolutionary movements that arise organically from the contradictions of capitalism itself. The argument proceeds through three case studies that are presented not as disconnected events but as expressions of the same underlying dynamic.

First, the Trump-Netanyahu rift is analysed not as a personal dispute but as a structural contradiction within the imperialist camp. Trump's need for stability and deal-making — including with Iran and the Houthis — clashes directly with Netanyahu's survival imperative, which requires continued war. This is presented as evidence that US imperialism can no longer simply dictate terms to its allies, and that the Middle East remains a "festering wound" that cannot be resolved on a capitalist basis.

Second, the India-Pakistan escalation is framed as a product of the poisonous legacy of partition, now compounded by the shifting balance of imperialist forces. The episode argues that both ruling classes use sectarianism to cut across class struggle, but that this dynamic is becoming more dangerous as nuclear powers face internal crises. The key insight is that the conflict serves to divert attention from soaring inequality and working-class militancy — including a threatened general strike of 250 million workers — while the official "communist" parties betray the class by supporting national unity with the ruling class.

Third, the Serbian movement is presented as the most developed expression of the conjuncture. The collapse of a canopy in Novi Sad sparked a seven-month revolutionary process involving over a million people, organised through student-led plenums and mass assemblies (borovi). The argument is that this movement demonstrates the organic, spontaneous character of revolutionary struggle: no party or preconceived plan created it, yet it has developed organs of popular power that begin to challenge state authority. The central problem identified is the absence of a revolutionary party capable of generalising the struggle, connecting it to the working class, and transforming the movement's minimal demands into a programme for socialist revolution.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis draws on several core Marxist concepts, though they are deployed through concrete analysis rather than abstract exposition:

The relative weakening of US imperialism: This is not presented as a simple decline thesis but as a shift in the balance of forces. US imperialism remains the dominant power, but it can no longer impose its will unilaterally — hence Trump's need to make deals with Iran, the Houthis, and Saudi Arabia, even when these contradict Israeli interests. This connects to Lenin's theory of imperialism as a system of inter-imperialist rivalry, updated for a period where the US faces challenges from China and regional powers.

The organic character of revolution: The episode strongly emphasises that revolutions are not made by parties or vanguards but arise from the contradictions of capitalism itself. This is a classical Marxist position — found in Marx's analysis of the Paris Commune and Lenin's insistence that revolution cannot be "imported" — but it is given a particular inflection here. The RCI tradition stresses that the task of communists is not to create revolutions but to help make the unconscious revolutionary struggle conscious, to generalise it, and to provide it with a programme.

The question of leadership and organisation: The Serbian case is used to illustrate both the immense power of spontaneous mass action and its limitations. The movement has developed mass assemblies, self-defence units, and cross-community solidarity — all positive features — but it lacks the organisational form to translate this into a seizure of power. The trade union leaders refuse to call a general strike; the students oscillate between demanding early elections and building independent organs. This is presented as evidence for the Leninist position on the necessity of a revolutionary party, though the argument is made through the movement's own experience rather than as a theoretical deduction.

Sectarianism as a ruling-class strategy: The analysis of both India-Pakistan and the Middle East emphasises how ruling classes use national, religious, and ethnic divisions to cut across class struggle. This is a classic Marxist theme — the bourgeoisie's use of "divide and rule" — but it is given concrete specificity: Modi's Hindu nationalism, Pakistan's use of Islamic fundamentalism, and the way both are rooted in the legacy of British imperialism.

The tendency of the rate of profit to fall is not explicitly named, but the analysis of the Indian economy — where corporate profits grew 22% while employment grew only 1.5% and employee expenses fell — points toward the dynamics of overaccumulation and the drive to squeeze labour. The argument is that Indian capitalism's "growth" is based on compressing living standards, which generates both rising militancy and the need for nationalist diversion.

Conjunctural Relevance

The episode is explicitly positioned as an analysis of the current moment, and it provides specific data and named forces:

Middle East: The ceasefire breakdown in Gaza, the calling up of 70,000 reservists, the complete siege preventing food and medicine entry, 52,000 official deaths, 70,000 children hospitalised. Trump's $600 billion deal with Saudi Arabia and $1.4 trillion deal with the UAE, his deal with the Houthis, and his lifting of sanctions on Syria are all presented as evidence of a strategic reorientation away from unconditional support for Israel. The firing of National Security Advisor Waltz for conspiring with Netanyahu to attack Iran is cited as evidence of the depth of the rift.

India-Pakistan: The Pahalgam attack on 22 April, the rapid escalation to air strikes and drone warfare, reports of Pakistani Chinese-made fighter jets shooting down Indian Rafale jets, and the Trump-mediated ceasefire on 10 May. The episode notes that China now supplies 81% of Pakistan's military equipment, that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is guarded by Chinese military, and that Chinese influence is expanding across Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal — challenging India's traditional sphere of influence.

Serbia: The Novi Sad canopy collapse on 1 November 2024, the seven-month movement, the 15 March demonstration of over a million people (15% of the population), the student-led plenums and borovi, the blockade of RTS (state television), the resignation of the government in January, and the current call for early elections. The episode notes that the movement has drawn in minorities, including Muslim students from the south, and that veterans have formed self-defence units to protect student blockades.

The broader conjuncture: The episode argues that the Serbian movement is part of a new wave of class struggle emerging after the defeats of the post-2008 movements (Podemos, Syriza, Corbyn). This new wave is characterised as more serious, more militant, and with fewer illusions in traditional leaderships. The Greek Tempe train disaster movement is cited as a parallel case.

Where the Argument Continues

The episode deliberately leaves several threads open, pointing toward ongoing developments and further analysis:

The Serbian movement's trajectory: The outcome is explicitly uncertain. Will the borovi coordinate and centralise? Will the working class be drawn in through a general strike? Will the turn toward elections demobilise the movement or provide a new terrain for struggle? These questions are left open, but the episode points toward the need for communist intervention to help the movement develop a programme and organisation. The RCI's Revolutionary Communist League in the former Yugoslavia, founded at the Zagreb congress referenced in the episode, is the organisational vehicle for this intervention.

The Trump-Netanyahu conflict: The episode suggests this will continue to deepen, with Netanyahu's survival imperative pushing toward war with Iran while Trump seeks stability. The question of whether Trump can find a way out without damaging Israel's strategic value to US imperialism is left open.

The India-Pakistan situation: The ceasefire is recognised as fragile, and the underlying dynamics — Modi's weakened position after losing his majority, the threatened general strike, the shifting imperialist alignments — remain in play.

The broader wave of struggle: The episode argues that the Serbian movement is a harbinger of similar movements to come, but it does not predict where or when. The task is to learn the lessons — about the need for programme, organisation, and the connection between minimal demands and revolutionary transformation — and prepare for future outbreaks.

For further development, listeners should consult the RCI's website for articles on the Serbian movement, including Ravi's analysis of the Indian economy referenced in the episode. Other Against the Stream episodes have covered the Middle East and India-Pakistan in previous weeks, and the Spectre of Communism series provides deeper theoretical grounding on questions of imperialism and revolution.

Connections

This episode connects to several bodies of Marxist theory and analysis:

Lenin's "Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism": The analysis of inter-imperialist rivalry, the relative weakening of US hegemony, and the way imperialist powers use client states and sectarian divisions is directly in this tradition.

Trotsky's theory of uneven and combined development: The analysis of India as a "myriad of ruling classes" with low productivity but massive demographic weight, and the way this generates both explosive growth and extreme exploitation, reflects this framework.

The RCI's own theoretical production: The episode is part of a broader body of work on the current conjuncture, including analyses of the Ukraine war, the crisis of US hegemony, and the wave of struggles from Lebanon to Chile. The Spectre of Communism podcast provides deeper theoretical elaboration.

Classical Marxist analyses of revolution: The emphasis on the organic, spontaneous character of revolution, the role of mass assemblies, and the necessity of a revolutionary party connects to Marx on the Paris Commune, Lenin on the Soviets, and Trotsky on the Russian Revolution.

Contemporary Marxist analyses of the Middle East and South Asia: The episode draws on and contributes to ongoing debates about the nature of the Israeli state, the role of Hindu nationalism, and the shifting imperialist alignments in Asia.

Key Quotes

1. "Marxism is not a preconceived plan that we want to drag over the head of the working class, but an ideology derived from the experience of the working class itself."

2. "Diplomacy in the final analysis cannot go above social forces, social laws of society essentially. And what we're dealing with here is people who are being driven by social forces."

3. "The task of communists is to help this process along, to help make the unconscious conscious — this unconscious revolutionary proletarian struggle — to make it more conscious."

4. "The mood which exists in Serbia, which was sparked off by one disaster, exists everywhere. The mood of anger, hatred against the establishment — there is a latent supercharged atmosphere which is not finding an outlet."

5. "We don't create revolutions. Capitalism creates revolutions. And through the struggle, through the experience of the struggle, the working class gradually moves toward the question of socialist revolution."