US Imperialism and Latin America: Trump Threatens War on Venezuela

Against The Stream · 2025-10-30

Core Argument

The central thesis is that the Trump administration's military buildup against Venezuela—ostensibly justified as an anti-drug operation—is in reality a coordinated attempt at regime change driven by multiple converging factors. The episode argues that the pretext of drug interdiction is transparently false: the DEA's own data shows only 8% of cocaine shipments travel through the Venezuelan Caribbean route, the small boats being bombed cannot reach the United States without refuelling 20 times, and survivors have been found to be ordinary fishermen and migrants, not drug traffickers.

The deeper argument is that this escalation represents a broader reassertion of US imperialist domination over Latin America—what the hosts term the "Donro Doctrine," a Trump-era revival of the Monroe Doctrine combined with the Roosevelt Corollary's claim to policing power. This re-hemispherisation drive is a response to China's dramatic expansion in the region: China has become the main trading partner for the entire South American continent, invested billions in infrastructure through the Belt and Road Initiative, and secured access to critical minerals including lithium, copper, and rare earths. The US cannot match these investments—as the head of US Southern Command herself admitted, Latin American countries "don't see the investments the US has been making" while they "see the Chinese cranes."

The hosts also argue that Trump's domestic political weakness—collapsing popularity among youth and Latino voters, a slim congressional majority making him vulnerable to pressure from the Miami-based Cuban counterrevolutionary lobby—has made him more susceptible to hawkish demands from figures like Marco Rubio, Steven Miller, and the "three crazy Cubans" in Congress.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis draws on the Marxist theory of imperialism, particularly Lenin's framework of interimperialist rivalry and the division of the world among great powers. The episode situates the current US-China contest in Latin America within the classical understanding of imperialism as the export of capital and the struggle for spheres of influence, raw materials, and strategic control.

The hosts deploy the concept of reformism versus revolution through their extended treatment of the Venezuelan Bolivarian Revolution. They argue that Chavez's project, while genuinely progressive and inspiring, remained within the confines of capitalism: oil revenues financed social programmes, but the capitalist class was never expropriated, workers' control was never generalised, and the old bourgeois state apparatus was never destroyed. When oil prices collapsed in 2014-15, the reformist model could not survive the crisis, and Maduro's subsequent turn to austerity, privatisation, and repression of the left represented the inevitable logic of "managing the crisis of capitalism through counter-reforms."

This analysis sits within the Trotskyist tradition of permanent revolution and the critique of stagism—the idea that a bourgeois-democratic stage must precede socialism. The hosts argue that Chavez himself recognised this problem, stating shortly before his death that "there is no socialism" in Venezuela and that two tasks remained: establishing a socialist economy and destroying the old bourgeois state. The failure to complete these tasks left the revolution vulnerable to capitalist sabotage, US sanctions, and eventual bureaucratic degeneration.

The episode also draws on the Marxist understanding of the state as an instrument of class rule, particularly in its treatment of the Venezuelan opposition. Maria Corina Machado is identified not as a democratic alternative but as the representative of the oligarchy, a figure who has called for US military intervention against her own country and would "privatise everything, destroy anything that remains of the gains of the revolution."

Conjunctural Relevance

The episode connects to the current conjuncture through several specific developments:

The military escalation itself: The deployment of the USS Gerald Ford carrier strike group, the USS Wasp amphibious ready group with 5,000 Marines, F-35s, Reaper drones, and B-1/B-52 bomber flights off the Venezuelan coast. The bombing of small boats—over 60 people killed—and the raising of the bounty on Maduro's head to $50 million.

The diplomatic context: The episode notes that Trump's envoy Richard Grenell had been negotiating with Maduro since February, securing oil concessions, mineral concessions, and Venezuelan agreement to cut ties with China, Russia, and Iran. The deal was then ripped up, with Trump withdrawing Grenell and declaring diplomacy over—a pattern also observed with Iran, where negotiations preceded escalation.

The broader re-hemispherisation campaign: The US has forced Panama to withdraw from the Belt and Road Initiative, accept US troops, and sell Hong Kong-owned ports at each end of the canal. It has imposed 50% tariffs on Brazil, cut diplomatic relations with Colombia, revoked President Petro's visa, and imposed sanctions on him and his family. It has provided $40 billion in support to Argentina's President Milei with explicit strings attached—no more mining concessions to China, no Chinese presence in strategic infrastructure.

China's position: Twenty Latin American countries are now part of the Belt and Road Initiative. China has built the Chancay deep-sea port in Peru, cutting shipping time by seven days, and is building a transcontinental railway to Brazil. Chinese trade with the region stands at $518 billion. China has 60% popularity in Colombia versus 40% for the US.

The domestic US political conjuncture: Trump's popularity is collapsing among youth and Latino voters. His slim congressional majority makes him vulnerable to the "three crazy Cubans" who blocked his legislative agenda until he broke an oil deal with Venezuela. The Heritage Foundation's Project 2025 and figures like Steven Miller are pushing for a more aggressive hemispheric posture.

Where the Argument Continues

The episode deliberately leaves open several questions that are developed elsewhere in the Against the Stream corpus and broader RCI literature:

The nature of the Maduro government and the degeneration of the Bolivarian Revolution: The hosts state that Maduro's policies became "the opposite of the Bolivarian revolution"—privatising what Chavez nationalised, destroying workers' control, implementing austerity, and repressing left-wing critics including the Communist Party. This argument is developed in greater depth in Alan Woods' article "Is Trump Going to War with Venezuela?" and in statements by the Venezuelan section of the RCI.

The question of whether war will actually happen: The hosts lay out three scenarios—limited strikes, a decapitation strike against Maduro, or full invasion—but note that none are straightforward. An invasion would require 100,000-200,000 troops. A decapitation strike risks creating a Libya-style collapse. Limited strikes risk making Trump look weak if he backs down. The episode suggests the primary aim is to provoke a coup from within the Venezuelan military, not direct US invasion.

The US economic crisis: The hosts mention they are doing a separate episode on the US economy, which will deal with rising unemployment, inflation, and house repossessions that are undermining Trump's popularity.

The question of how to fight imperialism: The episode concludes that the real answer is working-class revolution and internationalism, not reliance on China as a counterweight. This is a consistent theme across RCI output, developed in relation to Ukraine, Palestine, and other conflicts.

Connections

Within the corpus: The episode connects to other Against the Stream episodes on US imperialism, the Ukraine war (where similar dynamics of interimperialist rivalry are analysed), and the upcoming episode on the US economic crisis. The RCI's statements on Venezuela by its Venezuelan and US sections provide the organisational position.

Broader Marxist texts: The analysis draws on Lenin's Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism for its framework of interimperialist rivalry and capital export. Trotsky's theory of permanent revolution underpins the critique of reformism in Venezuela. The treatment of the Bolivarian Revolution's degeneration echoes Marxist analyses of other reformist governments that failed to break with capitalism—Allende's Chile being the classic comparison.

Thinkers and traditions: The episode sits within the Trotskyist tradition's critique of "socialism in one country" and its insistence on international working-class revolution. The analysis of China's role—neither a friend of the world's workers nor simply a second imperialist power—reflects the classical Trotskyist position of "neither Washington nor Moscow" (updated to "neither Washington nor Beijing"), while acknowledging that workers can tactically exploit interimperialist contradictions.

Key Quotes

1. "It was by taking control over Latin America that America took its first imperialist act. Decade after decade after decade, American imperialism intervening, overthrowing regimes, killing hundreds of thousands of people. In every single country, you have at least one bloody coup orchestrated, carried out, supported by America."

2. "The Donro doctrine, the Donald Trump version of it, is a combination of both things—America for the Americans, but also the right to be the policeman of this hemisphere, the right to do whatever we please."

3. "Chavez said himself shortly before his death: 'We talk about socialism, we give socialist names to things—this is a socialist roundabout, this is a socialist factory—but there is no socialism.' He said there were still two tasks left: the establishment of a socialist economy and the destruction of the old bourgeois state. These tasks were never completed."

4. "The only people who have the interests to actually carry out the revolution to the full is the working class themselves. The local bourgeoisie have failed. The imperialists have failed. And the extent of the so-called anti-imperialism of the Chinese stops at their own bottom line."

5. "If there's an attack on Venezuela, US embassies will be attacked throughout Latin America by angry crowds of workers, peasants, and youth—quite rightly so. In Venezuela itself, whatever people may think of the Maduro government, people will resist foreign military imperialist intervention."