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Core Argument

Against The Stream · 2025-11-06

The central thesis is that two apparently disparate events — Zorhan Mamdani's victory in the New York mayoral election and the intensification of the Sudanese civil war — are expressions of the same underlying phenomenon: the terminal crisis of the capitalist system, which can no longer provide a civilised existence for the majority of humanity. The episode argues that both cases reveal the ruling class losing control of its own political instruments, and that the only way forward is the construction of a revolutionary working-class party.

Mamdani's victory is presented not as a triumph of reformism but as evidence of a deep radicalisation beneath the surface of American politics — an accumulation of class rage that could swing in either a left or right direction depending on political leadership. The Sudanese case is presented as a warning: a revolutionary movement that failed to break with the liberal leadership, refused to take power when it had the chance, and was consequently crushed by the counter-revolution, leading to barbarism.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis draws on several core Marxist concepts:

The capitalist state as an instrument of class rule. The episode argues that the state apparatus — from the New York City bureaucracy to the Sudanese military — is not a neutral arbiter but a mechanism for maintaining capitalist class power. Mamdani's retention of the billionaire police commissioner Jessica Tisch and his appointment of establishment figures to his transition team is read as evidence that the state will resist any genuine challenge to property relations.

The distinction between reform and revolution. The episode insists that Mamdani's programme — rent freezes, free buses, universal childcare — cannot be implemented within the framework of capitalism because capital will respond with a strike of capital, sabotage, and political obstruction. The only way to carry through such measures is to challenge the basis of private property itself.

Dual power and the question of revolutionary strategy. The Sudanese revolution of 2019 is analysed through the lens of dual power: the popular resistance committees controlled large parts of the economy and society, while the official state apparatus was paralysed. The failure to transform this into a seizure of power is attributed to the liberal leadership of the Sudanese Professionals Association and the Forces for Freedom and Change, who prioritised negotiation with the army over the independent organisation of the working class.

The tendency towards barbarism under decaying capitalism. The episode draws on Rosa Luxemburg's formulation — socialism or barbarism — to argue that the Sudanese civil war is not an exception to capitalism but its logical outcome when revolutionary possibilities are betrayed.

The analysis sits firmly within the Trotskyist tradition, particularly its emphasis on the need for a revolutionary party independent of all bourgeois formations, its critique of popular frontism, and its insistence that the working class must break with liberal and reformist leadership to complete its historical mission.

Conjunctural Relevance

The episode is set in a specific conjuncture: November 2025, one year after Trump's re-election. The analysis connects to several concrete developments:

In the United States: Mamdani's victory is contextualised by a wave of job cuts (Amazon announcing 30,000 layoffs), rising repossessions, inflation still at 3%, and the longest government shutdown in US history (37 days at the time of recording). The episode notes that 1 million jobs have been lost in the past year, that 43 million people rely on food stamps which have been disrupted, and that the median New York renter spends 54% of monthly income on rent. The Democratic Party's favourability rating is cited at 33.4% — the lowest of the three major political institutions — indicating a crisis of legitimacy for the establishment.

In Sudan: The fall of El-Fasher to the Rapid Support Forces on 27 October 2025 is the immediate trigger. The episode provides detailed figures: 12 million forcibly displaced, 150-200,000 killed, 25 million facing acute hunger. The analysis traces the roots of the current war to the betrayal of the 2019 revolution, when the liberal leadership formed a transitional government with the army and the RSF rather than pressing for workers' power. The episode names specific actors: the UAE backing the RSF for gold and geopolitical influence; Egypt and Saudi Arabia backing the Sudanese Armed Forces for stability; the EU having funded and trained the RSF as border guards; Ukraine and Russia intervening on opposite sides.

Geopolitically: The episode argues that the relative decline of American imperialism has created space for regional powers — particularly the UAE — to pursue their own predatory interests, contributing to a regional crisis engulfing Chad, Libya, Niger, and the Central African Republic.

Where the Argument Continues

The episode deliberately leaves open several threads:

The full analysis of the Sudanese revolution. The episode announces a forthcoming long piece in In Defence of Marxism (due 15 January) that will provide a deeper treatment of the 2019 revolution and its betrayal. This is the primary place where the argument continues within the RCI corpus.

The question of Mamdani's trajectory. The episode does not predict Mamdani's fate but outlines the structural pressures that will force him either to break with the Democratic Party and the capitalist state or to capitulate. The argument here connects to broader Marxist analyses of reformism — from Bernstein to Corbyn — that the RCI has developed in other Against the Stream episodes and in In Defence of Marxism.

The question of building a revolutionary party in the United States. The episode concludes with the necessity of a workers' party but does not elaborate on the concrete steps. This connects to ongoing discussions within the RCI about the relationship between the DSA, independent socialist organising, and the need for a Leninist formation.

The regional crisis in Africa. The episode notes that the centre of revolutionary possibility may shift to Egypt, South Africa, or Nigeria, but does not develop this analysis. This points towards future episodes and the broader RCI analysis of African political economy.

Connections

Within the RCI corpus: The episode explicitly references earlier Against the Stream analyses of the Venezuelan revolution (where the failure to dismantle the old state apparatus led to sabotage of progressive measures), the Trump phenomenon (interpreted as a distorted expression of class anger rather than straightforward fascism), and the 2019 Sudanese revolution (where the RCI predicted the counter-revolution would strike). The episode also connects to the RCI's ongoing critique of the Democratic Party as a capitalist party.

Broader Marxist texts: The analysis of dual power in Sudan draws implicitly on Lenin's State and Revolution and Trotsky's History of the Russian Revolution. The critique of the liberal leadership's refusal to arm the workers echoes Trotsky's analysis of the German Communist Party's failure to prepare for the Nazi seizure of power. The concept of socialism or barbarism is drawn from Rosa Luxemburg's The Junius Pamphlet.

Recommended reading alongside: The episode should be read alongside the RCI's theoretical magazine In Defence of Marxism (particularly the forthcoming Sudan article), Lenin's What Is to Be Done? for the theory of the revolutionary party, and Trotsky's The Transitional Programme for the relationship between immediate demands and revolutionary strategy.

Key Quotes

  1. "The main conclusion that we draw from the discussion we've had about New York and the United States and about Sudan: we need a revolutionary party of the working class."

  2. "The ruling class no longer being able to rule in the way that it become accustomed to in the past."

  3. "What is the role of the landlords? They are the most parasitic you can get. They don't do anything, they don't produce anything, they don't develop anything. They don't make anything run. They just sit on their asses and they take rent income. Why should they exist?"

  4. "The continuation of capitalism, particularly in the colonial, now ex-colonial countries, is horror without end."

  5. "If you don't finish what you started... Revolutions start. The system causes them. Capitalism causes them. But we can have an impact on whether they are successful or not. Humans have that."