Iran War: A Marxist Analysis — Against the Stream (March 2026)

Against The Stream · 2026-03-05

Core Argument

The central thesis is that the US-Israeli aerial bombardment of Iran, which began on 28 February 2026, represents an unprovoked imperialist assault that is already failing on its own terms. The war was launched on the flimsy assumption that decapitating the Iranian leadership would trigger regime collapse, but this miscalculation has produced the opposite result: the Iranian regime has been politically strengthened, the population is rallying behind it, and the US now finds itself trapped in an attritional conflict it cannot win quickly and cannot easily exit.

The argument proceeds in four parts. First, the war's direction: the US and Israel have no coherent plan, their stated aims are contradictory, and the longer the conflict continues, the more it exposes American military and economic vulnerability. Second, the domestic impact in the US: Trump came to power on an anti-war platform, but this war is deeply unpopular even among his own base (59% opposition at the outset), and the combination of rising energy prices, military expenditure, and casualties could destroy his presidency and trigger a major political crisis. Third, the situation inside Iran: the bombing of civilian targets — particularly the Mina girls' school massacre — has discredited the idea that the West brings freedom, unified the regime's factions, and cut the ground from under those who looked to imperialism for liberation. Fourth, the global implications: the war is straining American military resources already depleted by Ukraine, disrupting energy markets (LNG prices up 100%, Strait of Hormuz effectively blocked), and accelerating the decline of US hegemony — a defeat that could open revolutionary possibilities across the Western world.

The episode insists that communists must oppose both the Iranian regime and American imperialism, not choose between them. The correct position is to fight the Americans while criticising the regime for waging a capitalist war that cannot mobilise the masses or offer a genuine alternative.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis draws on several classical Marxist concepts, though it deploys them as analytical tools rather than formal categories.

Lenin's observation on war and revolution frames the entire argument: "Wars start with a wave of patriotism and end with a wave of revolution." The episode's key insight is that this war is not even starting with patriotism — 59% opposition from the outset — which makes the revolutionary potential at the end even more significant. This is a conjunctural application of Lenin's method rather than a mechanical prediction.

The theory of imperialism underpins the analysis throughout. The war is understood not as a response to Iranian provocation (which is dismissed as fabrication) but as a product of the competitive dynamics of capitalist powers. The episode situates the conflict within the broader strategic framework of US attempts to prevent Eurasian unity — explicitly referencing Brzezinski's The Grand Chessboard — and connects it to the wars in Ukraine and the economic confrontation with China as three fronts draining from the same imperial arsenal.

The concept of attritional warfare is given a materialist grounding through the economics of munitions production. The episode contrasts the cost of American interceptor missiles (THAAD at $4 million each, Patriots at $1-2 million) with Iranian drones and missiles costing tens or hundreds of thousands. This is not merely a military observation but an argument about the structural limits of imperialist warfare: the US cannot sustain a war of attrition because its weapons are too expensive to produce in sufficient quantities, while Iran's are designed precisely for this kind of conflict. Anthony Blinken's remark — "this war will be determined by munitions and markets" — is cited approvingly as a rare moment of clarity from a bourgeois politician.

The critique of opportunism runs through the discussion of Kurdish and Iranian leftist forces who align with American imperialism. The episode draws on historical examples (the Kurds in Iraq after the first Gulf War, in Syria with Rojava) to argue that reliance on imperialism always ends in betrayal. This is presented as a settled lesson of the communist tradition, not a matter for debate.

The distinction between capitalist and communist anti-imperialism is crucial. The Iranian regime's resistance to American imperialism is real but limited by its class character: it fights to be acknowledged as a regional power, not to liberate the masses. It uses sectarian divisions, exploits its own population, and cannot offer a genuine alternative. A communist-led Iran would have appealed to workers across the Middle East and fundamentally changed the balance of forces.

Conjunctural Relevance

The episode is tightly anchored to the specific events of late February and early March 2026. The key conjunctural elements are:

Military situation: The US and Israel have conducted thousands of strikes across Iran, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei, the defence minister, and numerous Revolutionary Guard commanders. However, Iran's "Mosaic doctrine" — pre-delegated authority for autonomous retaliation — has been activated. Iran has struck American bases and allied targets across the Gulf region, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan, Israel, and even attempted strikes on US bases in Turkey and Cyprus. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively blocked, with 73 large crude carriers (8% of global capacity) trapped inside.

Economic disruption: Qatar Energy has declared force majeure on LNG contracts, hitting Asian economies particularly hard (South Korean markets plummeting). The largest Saudi refinery is halted. Oil prices are rising, and European gas prices (Dutch TTF) have jumped from approximately 27-30 to 50 units, on a trajectory towards the 80-100 levels of 2022. The episode notes that European governments spent billions subsidising energy in 2022 and cannot easily repeat this.

Political crisis in the US: The Pentagon has requested $50 billion in emergency funding. Trump's approval ratings are falling, but the Democrats are not rising — indicating a crisis of legitimacy for the entire political system. The Epstein scandal is being linked to the war by many on social media. Tucker Carlson and the American Conservative have turned against the war. The episode argues this could be "the end of Donald Trump" and prepare the ground for "a massive swing to the left."

Geopolitical realignment: The war is benefiting Russia (higher oil prices, diversion of Patriot missiles from Ukraine) and China (which can absorb higher energy costs but sees the US bogged down). The episode frames this as a potential historic defeat for American imperialism that could unseat it from global hegemony.

The Israeli dimension: Netanyahu is identified as the main driver, pursuing a strategy of breaking Iran into sectarian fragments — "another Syria" — through the use of Kurdish and other separatist forces. The episode cites an Israeli opinion piece calling for "Sykes-Picot 2026" to redraw the Middle East map along tribal lines, which it condemns as an open programme for barbarism.

Where the Argument Continues

The episode deliberately leaves several threads open, pointing towards future developments and earlier analyses.

The trajectory of the war itself is unresolved. The episode notes that the US is now approaching Kurdish forces to provide "boots on the ground" — a dangerous escalation that could lead to civil war. The outcome depends on whether the US can find an exit, which seems increasingly unlikely.

The domestic political crisis in the US is identified as the most volatile variable. The episode argues that the anger that elected Trump is now being redirected, and that "revolutionary events like we saw in Minneapolis, just much much bigger" are possible. This connects to earlier Against the Stream episodes analysing the 2020 uprisings and the crisis of American democracy.

The European dimension is underdeveloped in this episode. The discussion of Starmer, Macron, and Sanchez is brief, but the implication is clear: European leaders are being dragged into a war that will devastate their economies, and this will fuel political crises across the continent. Earlier episodes on the cost-of-living crisis and the Ukraine war provide the necessary context.

The question of revolutionary strategy is raised at the end but not developed. The episode insists that the defeat of American imperialism is a good thing, but warns that the rise of other imperialist powers (China, Russia) does not solve the problem. The working class must take power itself. This points towards the broader theoretical work of the RCI on the need for a revolutionary communist party and the critique of both reformism and anti-imperialist nationalism.

Connections

Within the Against the Stream corpus: The episode builds on earlier analyses of the 12-day Israel-Iran war (June 2025), the Venezuela intervention, and the Ukraine war. The critique of Kurdish leftist forces aligning with imperialism echoes previous discussions of Rojava and the PKK. The analysis of Trump as both cause and consequence of US decline is a recurring theme.

Broader Marxist texts: The episode explicitly references Lenin on war and revolution, and Brzezinski's The Grand Chessboard as a strategic text. The concept of barbarism as the outcome of imperialist rivalry draws on Rosa Luxemburg's The Junius Pamphlet. The analysis of attritional warfare and the economics of munitions production has affinities with the work of military Marxists like Engels and, more recently, analysts of the Ukraine war.

Contemporary analyses: The episode's focus on the material constraints of imperialist warfare — the cost of missiles, the depletion of arsenals, the vulnerability of energy markets — connects to the work of Marxist economists and geographers writing on the logistics of contemporary warfare. The discussion of the Gulf states as "safe havens" being exposed as unsafe speaks to the literature on capitalist crisis and the spatial fix.

Key Quotes

1. "The guerrilla wins if he does not lose. The conventional army loses if it does not win. I think that's similar to what's happening here — Iran can keep going, but how is the US going to force Iran to agree to their demands?"

2. "This war will be determined by munitions and markets. The rate of attrition of American munitions and the downward trend of the world markets — that is the hard limit that America can take."

3. "Lenin said war starts with a wave of patriotism and ends with a wave of revolution. Well, this war is not even starting with a wave of patriotism, but it will have significant social impact internally on American politics, on Donald Trump. This could be the end of Donald Trump."

4. "The struggle against imperialism must be connected to the struggle against that class. And for the working class to prepare to take power in its own hands."

5. "They want to create another Syria. That's the reality of what their plan is. Another Syria, another Iraq — a bloody sectarian conflict that will weaken their biggest rival in the Middle East. They're openly calling for barbarism."