Iran CATASTROPHE — Epstein scandal out of control — AGAINST THE STREAM

Against The Stream · 2026-02-26

Core Argument

The central thesis of this episode is that US imperialism is driving towards a catastrophic war with Iran, not from a position of strength but from a position of deepening crisis and miscalculation. The argument is twofold. First, Trump's administration — despite its rhetorical opposition to "forever wars" — has continued and escalated the same imperialist policies as its predecessors, culminating in a military build-up against Iran that leaves Washington with no good options: either a humiliating retreat or a war that would destabilise the entire region and risk economic catastrophe. Second, this crisis is exposing the internal contradictions of US imperialism's alliance system in the Middle East, where the very forces Washington armed and unified are now splitting into hostile camps, with American allies lining up against each other across multiple conflicts from Yemen to Sudan to Syria.

The episode argues that the Epstein scandal is of revolutionary significance for a parallel reason: it is stripping away the moral legitimacy of the entire ruling class establishment, exposing its predatory nature and its impunity, and catalysing a class anger that could have revolutionary consequences. The two trends — barbarism and revolution — are presented as developing simultaneously out of the same crisis of capitalism.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis draws on several core Marxist concepts, though it deploys them through concrete political analysis rather than abstract theoretical exposition.

The crisis-ridden nature of imperialism is the foundational assumption. The episode treats US military aggression not as a policy choice among others but as the necessary expression of a system in decline, lashing out as its global hegemony weakens. The argument that "the crisis of world capitalism deepens, as the crisis of American capitalism deepens, while it lashes out in a state of weakness" is a direct application of the Leninist theory of imperialism as the highest stage of capitalism, updated for the current conjuncture of US decline relative to rivals.

The concept of the ruling class as a unified but internally contradictory bloc underpins the analysis of both the Middle East realignment and the Epstein scandal. The episode shows how different factions of capital — represented by different states, different wings of the US administration, different sections of the establishment — pursue their interests in ways that can come into conflict, even as they remain fundamentally united in their opposition to the working class. This is a sophisticated application of the Marxist understanding of the state as the executive committee of the bourgeoisie, but one that can be riven by factional struggles.

The theory of permanent counter-revolution is implicit in the discussion of Sudan. The argument that the 2019 revolution failed because it refused to take power and defend itself, and that the resulting barbarism was the direct consequence of that failure, draws on the Trotskyist tradition's insistence that the working class must be prepared to seize state power and defend the revolution against counter-revolutionary violence.

The concept of moral indignation as a revolutionary force is developed through the Epstein discussion. The episode argues that the exposure of ruling class criminality — not as individual corruption but as systemic predation — can catalyse class consciousness. This echoes Marx's own understanding that the working class develops political consciousness not only through economic struggle but through the stripping away of ideological illusions about the ruling class.

The analysis sits firmly within the Trotskyist tradition, specifically the Revolutionary Communist International's lineage. It rejects reformism implicitly throughout — no suggestion that the crisis can be resolved within the framework of capitalism — and treats the state as an instrument of class rule that must be smashed, not reformed.

Conjunctural Relevance

The episode is remarkably specific about the conjuncture of early 2026, and its analysis connects to several concrete developments:

The military build-up against Iran is detailed with precision: two aircraft carriers, 13 large surface combatants, 90+ aircraft including F-35s and F-22s, 30-40,000 troops. The episode identifies this as following the "12-day war" of 2025 — a US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran that failed to achieve its stated aims. Trump's claim to have "obliterated" Iran's nuclear programme is contrasted with his later demand that Iran "stop" it, exposing the operation's failure.

The Venezuelan precedent is identified as crucial to Trump's miscalculation. The episode argues that the rapid operation against Maduro (described as a "kidnapping" on 3 January 2026) gave Trump a false sense that similar pressure would work on Iran, ignoring Iran's vastly greater military capacity, regional networks, and popular base.

The fracturing of the US alliance system is mapped in detail. The episode traces a chain of events from Yemen in January 2026, where Saudi Arabia bombed Emirati-backed forces and forced the dissolution of the Southern Transitional Council, to a broader polarisation: Israel, UAE, India, Ethiopia on one side; Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan on the other. This is playing out across Libya, Syria, Sudan, Somalia, and the Horn of Africa.

The economic dimension is addressed through the Strait of Hormuz — through which a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade passes — and the vulnerability of the US economy, described as resting on a speculative AI bubble that could be popped by an oil price shock. Inflation, which was central to Trump's election, would worsen.

The Epstein scandal is treated as an ongoing crisis with specific new developments: the arrest of Lord Mandelson and Prince Andrew in Britain, the suicide attempt of a former Norwegian prime minister, the resignation of an Emirati CEO, and the deliberate withholding of files implicating Trump. The episode cites a Sunday Times article warning that the monarchy "cannot survive" the scandal and that the "whole edifice will come crashing down."

Public opinion data is cited: a YouGov poll from 23 February 2026 showing only 27% support for attacking Iran, including only 57% of Republicans, indicating Trump would lose a third of his base immediately.

Where the Argument Continues

The episode explicitly frames both the Iran crisis and the Epstein scandal as ongoing developments that will be followed in future episodes. It does not attempt to predict the outcome of the Iran standoff — whether Trump will attack, retreat, or seek a deal — but rather maps the structural pressures that make any outcome disastrous for US imperialism.

The analysis of the Middle East realignment is developed further in the article by Ben Curry that the episode references and links to in its description. The broader theoretical framework — the crisis of US hegemony, the fracturing of alliance systems under the pressure of capitalist decline, the relationship between imperialist war and domestic political crisis — is a recurring theme across Against the Stream episodes.

The discussion of the Epstein scandal's revolutionary potential connects to the RCI's broader analysis of the "Gen Z revolutions" of 2025, referenced in the episode, and to the theoretical question of how moral outrage against ruling class corruption can be transformed into revolutionary consciousness. This is a thread that runs through the Spectre of Communism podcast and the RCI's written output.

The question "do communists support violence?" is answered in a way that points towards the RCI's broader strategic orientation: the working class must be prepared to defend itself and to seize power, and the alternative to revolutionary violence is the far greater violence of counter-revolution and barbarism. This is developed at greater length in the RCI's programme and in Ted Grant's writings.

Connections

Lenin, Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism — The theoretical foundation for understanding US military aggression as the expression of a declining imperialist system.

Trotsky, The Revolution Betrayed — For the analysis of how revolutions fail when they refuse to take power, and the consequences of that failure.

The RCI's analysis of the 2025 Gen Z revolutions — Referenced in the episode, this provides the broader context for understanding the radicalisation that the Epstein scandal is accelerating.

Fred Weston's contributions to Against the Stream — Referenced for the argument that the Epstein scandal reflects the hubris of a ruling class that believed itself unchallengeable after the defeats of the working class in the 1980s and the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The Sunday Times article by Robert Verkaik (21 February 2026) — Cited extensively as evidence that even the ruling class's own institutions recognise the revolutionary implications of the Epstein scandal.

Goethe, Faust — Referenced for the idea that humanity "always bounces back" despite everything thrown at it, used to argue that barbarism generates its own opposition.

Key Quotes

1. "A collapse of Iran, it would be Iraq 10 times over. The irony is it's precisely what was meant to unite the region in the interest of US imperialism has actually now drawn a line of conflict between the different allies of US imperialism."

2. "The Epstein files have fatally undermined public confidence and trust in the establishment and in particular trust in the House of Windsor, which in Britain today is obviously a huge part of the ruling class. It's the central point of the ruling class. And then it ends: 'The monarchy sits at the top of the establishment and would it collapse under the weight of a criminal investigation, then the whole edifice will come crashing down.' These are words of warning. These are revolutionary conclusions that the ruling class is drawing."

3. "Capitalism, you know, this system that was supposed to civilize the entire planet is causing the most horrific barbarism."

4. "The mistake of the Sudanese revolution was not to understand that. You see if they had made a political campaign to win over the ranks of the soldiers say come over to the side of the revolution... there would have been no bloodshed. And because they failed to defend themselves, this is the situation that the country ended up."

5. "There are two trends here. One trend is of capitalism as a system going towards barbarism. But at the same time, this is politicizing people. This is waking a lot of people up. Out of this barbaric situation, the two trends developing. One moving towards barbarism. And with equal force, there's another trend appearing, which is towards revolution."