China humiliates the West revolution in Indonesia French regime in crisis AGAIN

Against The Stream · 2025-09-04

Core Argument

The central thesis is that the world capitalist system has entered a period of acute, multi-dimensional crisis in which the old mechanisms of imperialist domination no longer function as they once did. The argument proceeds on three interconnected levels: the geopolitical, the economic, and the revolutionary.

Geopolitically, the episode claims that the relative decline of US imperialism is no longer a theoretical proposition but a visible, measurable reality. The military parade in China, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, and the failure of Trump's tariff bullying against India and Brazil are presented as evidence that the post-1991 unipolar moment is definitively over. The claim is not that China has surpassed the US, but that the gap has narrowed to the point where US bullying now backfires, driving countries into China's orbit rather than compelling submission.

Economically, the argument is that the debt-fuelled stability of Western capitalism — particularly in Europe — has reached its limit. The French crisis is presented as the paradigmatic case: a government unable to pass austerity because no parliamentary force can vote for it without electoral annihilation, yet unable to avoid austerity because the debt service alone consumes the budget. This is a crisis of ruling class incapacity: the system cannot reproduce itself through normal political means.

Revolutionarily, the episode argues that these structural crises are generating spontaneous mass movements — Indonesia being the latest example — which contain the potential for revolutionary rupture but lack the organised leadership necessary to carry them through to the seizure of power. The argument is that we are entering a period of "February revolutions" without an "October" — and that building the leadership capable of bridging that gap is the strategic task.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis draws on several classical Marxist concepts, though it deploys them more as orienting frameworks than as formal categories.

Lenin's theory of imperialism is the most explicit reference. The episode uses Lenin's argument about the uneven and combined development of capitalism — that the balance of forces between imperialist powers shifts continuously as economies develop at different rates, leading to inevitable conflict and redivision of the world. The China-US rivalry is framed through this lens: not as a clash of civilisations or political systems, but as the necessary outcome of differential rates of accumulation and technological development.

Trotsky's concept of the privilege of backwardness is invoked to explain China's rapid industrial and military modernisation. The argument is that China, coming from a lower base, was able to adopt the most advanced techniques without being weighed down by the sunk capital and institutional inertia of older industrial powers. The US, by contrast, suffers from "economic inertia" — a useful if informal rendering of the problem of overaccumulation and the difficulty of devalorising existing fixed capital.

The theory of the state and revolution underpins the analysis of France and Indonesia. The episode draws a clear distinction between a political crisis (a government falling) and a revolutionary situation (the masses entering politics as an independent force). The CGT left statement is quoted approvingly for its formulation: "those at the top can no longer rule in the same way, those at the bottom can no longer tolerate to live in the same way" — which is a direct echo of Lenin's definition of a revolutionary situation in 'Left-Wing' Communism.

The distinction between February and October revolutions is the central strategic concept. The episode argues that spontaneous mass uprisings — Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, now potentially Indonesia — can overthrow regimes but cannot transform the social order without a revolutionary party capable of concentrating the movement's energy into the seizure of state power. This is a classical Leninist position, but it is applied here with attention to the specific dynamics of the current conjuncture.

Conjunctural Relevance

The episode is precise about the mechanisms driving the current crisis.

On the geopolitical shift: The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit is treated as a watershed. The presence of Putin, Modi, Xi, Erdogan, and others — and notably the absence of any Western leader — is presented as a visual representation of the new balance of forces. The episode cites specific data: China's naval shipbuilding capacity is 200 times that of the US; Chinese military technology has advanced to the point where a simulated conflict over Taiwan would destroy 45% of US forces in the region; China has become the world's main creditor, lending more to the Global South than the IMF and World Bank combined.

On the European crisis: The French case is detailed with specific figures — €41 billion in cuts, a debt of €3.5 trillion at 114% of GDP, a budget deficit of 5.8%, and €175 billion per year in interest payments alone. The episode notes that the French government has given €200 billion in handouts to capital while demanding austerity from workers. The political paralysis is structural: no party can vote for these cuts without being destroyed at the next election, yet no government can avoid them without triggering a bond market crisis.

On Indonesia: The movement began with a specific provocation — a 50-fold increase in parliamentary allowances — but rapidly escalated into a generalised assault on the political class. The episode draws explicit parallels with Bangladesh (2024), Sri Lanka (2022), and Egypt (2011), arguing that these are all instances of the same phenomenon: spontaneous mass movements that overthrow governments but leave capitalist social relations intact.

On the broader conjuncture: The episode situates these events within a longer trajectory. It notes that the RCI's world perspectives document, written 20 years ago, predicted that the debt-fuelled postponement of crisis would eventually destroy the social and political equilibrium. That prediction, the episode claims, is now being fulfilled.

Where the Argument Continues

The episode is explicitly positioned as part of a larger body of work. It references the RCI's World Congress and the world perspectives document drafted for it, which contains the "tectonic plates" analysis of the geopolitical shift. The episode also points to the French section's article on the budget crisis, which details the €200 billion in handouts to capital.

The argument about the February/October distinction and the need for revolutionary leadership is developed more fully in other Against the Stream episodes, particularly those dealing with Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. The theoretical grounding in Lenin's Imperialism and State and Revolution is treated as assumed knowledge, but the episode recommends Lenin's Imperialism explicitly for those wanting to understand the geopolitical dynamic.

The analysis of the European debt crisis and its relationship to class struggle is a thread that runs through the entire Against the Stream corpus, and this episode should be read alongside earlier episodes on the Greek crisis and the Yellow Vests movement.

Connections

• Lenin, Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism — the foundational text for the analysis of interimperialist rivalry and uneven development.
• Lenin, 'Left-Wing' Communism: An Infantile Disorder — for the definition of a revolutionary situation and the role of the party.
• Trotsky, The History of the Russian Revolution — for the concept of the privilege of backwardness and the analysis of February versus October.
• RCI World Perspectives Document (referenced in the episode) — for the longer-term strategic analysis of the conjuncture.
• Previous Against the Stream episodes on Bangladesh and Sri Lanka — for the comparative analysis of spontaneous revolutionary movements and their limits.
• The CGT left statement (Unité CGT) — for the trade union left's attempt to draw lessons from 1968 and the pension reform struggles.

Key Quotes

1. "The world situation is dominated by enormous instability in world relations. This is the result of the struggle for world hegemony between the US, the world's most powerful imperialist power, which is in relative decline, and China, a more dynamic, rising imperialist power. We are witnessing a tremendous shift comparable in scale to the movement of the tectonic plates on the Earth's crust."

2. "The capitalists can't rule. They can't rule as they used to. They can't carry out their programme. There is now a contradiction between democracy, i.e. the parliament, which has been elected by the people, and the needs of the capitalists. They are in a collision course, one against the other."

3. "Those at the top can no longer rule in the same way, those at the bottom can no longer tolerate to live in the same way. That is precisely the fundamental opening of a revolution."

4. "What you had in Egypt in 2011, what you had in Bangladesh one year ago, what you had in Sri Lanka... was a February revolution. The initial spontaneous mass movement of the people to overthrow the old regime. But what they did not have was an October Revolution... And what is the main difference between Russia in February to October 1917 and Egypt in 2011, Bangladesh last year and even Indonesia today? It's the lack of revolutionary leadership."

5. "The biggest antidote to the far right is the struggle of the workers side by side in the class struggle against the common enemy."