Skip to content

El Isis a punto de ser derrotado mientras los imperialistas se preparan para la

Marxist Theory · 2026-05-13

Core Argument

The central thesis is that the imminent military defeat of ISIS in Iraq and Syria does not represent a victory for peace or stability, but rather the opening of a new, more dangerous phase of inter-imperialist rivalry. The article argues that the destruction of the ISIS caliphate removes a convenient distraction for all sides, exposing the raw competition between the US, Russia, Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia for control of territory, oil resources, and strategic corridors. The defeat of one jihadi faction merely clears the ground for new proxy conflicts, deeper sectarian division, and the re-emergence of Islamist forces under different names — all driven by the logic of competing imperialist interests rather than any genuine resolution of the region's crises.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis is rooted in the Marxist theory of imperialism, particularly Lenin's conception of interimperialist rivalry as the driving force behind war and conflict in the epoch of capitalism's decline. The article treats the Middle East not as a region of ancient sectarian hatreds or civilisational clash, but as a theatre in which competing capitalist powers — declining US hegemony, resurgent Russian influence, rising Iranian regional power, and Saudi Arabian counter-mobilisation — pursue strategic advantage through proxies, arms sales, and territorial carve-ups. The concept of "zones of security" is analysed as a form of neo-colonial partition, with Russia, Turkey, and Iran acting as "guarantors" of spheres of influence. The article also draws on the Marxist understanding of the state in the periphery: the destruction of the Iraqi state by the 2003 invasion is presented not as an accident but as a necessary precondition for the rise of ISIS and the subsequent fragmentation of the country along sectarian and ethnic lines. The final section situates the entire dynamic within the "decadence" of the capitalist system, arguing that capitalism in its senile phase can only reproduce barbarism — war, displacement, economic collapse, and the revival of pre-modern social forms.

Conjunctural Relevance

The article was published in May 2017, at the precise moment when the territorial defeat of ISIS became a practical certainty. Mosul was falling; Raqqa was encircled; Deir ez-Zor was under pressure. The conjuncture it analyses is defined by several concrete developments:

  • The Astana process and the "de-escalation zones" agreement between Russia, Turkey, and Iran, which effectively partitioned Syria into spheres of influence while excluding the US from negotiations.
  • The US military base at Al Tanf, near the Iraq-Syria border, which became a flashpoint for direct confrontation between US forces and Assad-regime troops backed by Iran and Hezbollah.
  • Trump's May 2017 state visit to Saudi Arabia, which produced a $110 billion arms deal and an explicit US endorsement of Saudi-led anti-Iranian escalation.
  • The Saudi plan to arm Sunni tribal forces in western Iraq for a post-ISIS uprising, threatening the further disintegration of the Iraqi state.
  • The intensification of the war in Yemen and the expansion of US military operations in Somalia and the Sahel.

The article correctly anticipates that the defeat of ISIS would not end the war but shift its character, with the struggle for Deir ez-Zor and the Iraq-Syria border crossings becoming the next flashpoint — a prediction borne out by subsequent events.

Where the Argument Continues

This article sits within a broader body of IDOM analysis on the Middle East that tracks the evolution of the Syrian and Iraqi conflicts through the lens of interimperialist rivalry. Readers should consult:

  • Subsequent IDOM articles on the shifting alliances in Syria, particularly the evolution of Turkish-Russian relations and the Kurdish question.
  • IDOM's coverage of the Yemen war, which extends the analysis of Saudi-Iranian proxy conflict.
  • Articles on the political economy of oil and the role of sanctions in the destruction of Syrian and Iraqi infrastructure.
  • The broader Marxist theoretical literature on imperialism and the state in the periphery, including Lenin's Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism and Trotsky's writings on the Balkans and the Middle East.

The article leaves underdeveloped the question of the Kurdish national movement and its relationship to the Syrian revolution — a tension that later IDOM pieces address more fully. It also does not explore in depth the class composition of the forces involved, or the prospects for independent working-class action in the region.

Connections

  • Lenin, Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism — the theoretical foundation for the analysis of interimperialist rivalry.
  • Trotsky, The War and the International — on the relationship between imperialist war and revolutionary defeatism.
  • IDOM, "The War in Syria: A Marxist Analysis" — a longer treatment of the Syrian conflict's class dynamics.
  • IDOM, "Yemen: The Forgotten War" — extends the analysis of Saudi-Iranian proxy conflict.
  • Against the Stream, episodes on the Middle East — podcast discussions that update the analysis for later phases of the conflict.

Key Quotes

  1. "La derrota del Isis en estas circunstancias sólo prepara el camino para conflictos más sangrientos en el futuro, sin resolución a la vista."

  2. "El régimen iraní se ha convertido en uno de los beneficiarios de la guerra en Irak. Al haber destruido el régimen de Saddam Hussein, el ejército estadounidense eliminó de paso la mayor barrera a la expansión iraní en Irak."

  3. "Éste será probablemente el fin del Estado iraquí centralizado. Sumergirá a Irak en otra etapa dentro de esta sangrienta guerra de poder entre los Estados Unidos, Arabia Saudita e Irán."

  4. "Aunque el Isis pueda estar llegando a su fin, una multitud de grupos islamistas están surgiendo para ocupar su lugar."

  5. "La incapacidad de Estados Unidos para imponer su voluntad a la región ha dejado un vacío que otros poderes están luchando por llenar, con consecuencias devastadoras para las masas."

  6. "El sistema capitalista en su período de decadencia senil está reviviendo catástrofe tras catástrofe. Cada vez más países se ven envueltos en un creciente torbellino de conflictos entre las potencias imperiales. Sólo una acción decisiva de la clase obrera puede poner fin a este horror."