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Trumps presidency creates enormous turbulence across the world

Marxist Perspectives · 2025-02-07

Core Argument

The central thesis is that Trump's second presidency represents not the cause but the dramatic acceleration of pre-existing crises within global capitalism. Jorge Martín argues that Trump is a symptom of deeper structural processes—the relative decline of US imperialism, the rise of China and Russia as rival powers, and the long-term crisis of European capitalism—but that his particular method of rule is tearing up the diplomatic rulebook and forcing a rapid recomposition of world relations. The key claim is that Trump's foreign policy, unlike Biden's, is based on a partial recognition of US limitations: rather than pursuing global primacy at any cost, he seeks to consolidate a US sphere of influence, end costly proxy wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and concentrate on containing China. This shift, however, is not a retreat from imperialism but its more naked, less hypocritical expression. The article further argues that the anti-establishment mood which propelled Trump to power is deeply contradictory—it can swing left as quickly as it has swung right—and that the task of Marxists is to build a cadre organisation capable of intervening when the inevitable disillusionment with Trump's empty promises arrives.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis is grounded in the classical Marxist method of historical materialism, applied to the conjuncture rather than mechanically repeated. Martín draws on Lenin's theory of imperialism as the highest stage of capitalism, particularly the notion of interimperialist rivalry and the uneven development of capitalist powers. The framework of relative decline—US imperialism losing its post-Cold War unipolar dominance—is deployed not as a slogan but as a concrete lens through which to interpret Trump's behaviour: his willingness to abandon Ukraine, his threats against NATO allies, his focus on China as the main rival.

There is also a clear debt to Trotsky's analysis of Bonapartism and the crisis of bourgeois democracy. The article treats Trump not as an aberration but as a product of the decay of liberal democratic institutions, a phenomenon Trotsky analysed in the context of Weimar Germany and pre-war France. The concept of the "deep state" is taken seriously as a description of real institutional friction within the capitalist state apparatus, even as it is reframed in Marxist terms as a conflict between different fractions of the ruling class.

The analysis of the Ukraine war draws on the Marxist understanding of war as the continuation of politics by other means, and on the classical Marxist position on the superiority of planned production over market anarchy—evidenced by Russia's state-directed war economy outperforming NATO's contractor-driven model. The discussion of the European car industry crisis and the Draghi report is rooted in Marx's analysis of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall, though the concept is used implicitly rather than formulatically.

Conjunctural Relevance

The article is remarkably specific about the conjuncture of early 2025. It was delivered on 28 January 2025, just one week into Trump's second term, and captures a moment of extraordinary volatility. Key events cited include:

  • The Gaza ceasefire deal, which Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff forced through against Netanyahu's sabotage, exposing Biden's complicity in the genocide.
  • The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, interpreted as the result of Russia's distraction in Ukraine and Iran's weakening by Israel, with Turkey emerging as the dominant regional power.
  • The accelerating collapse of the Ukrainian front, with 200,000 Ukrainian soldiers going AWOL, the 155th Mechanised Brigade disintegrating before firing a shot, and recruitment officers acting like an "occupation army."
  • The collapse of governments in France, Germany, and Canada, and the cancellation of Romanian elections after a pro-peace candidate won the first round.
  • The single-day $600 billion loss in Nvidia's stock market valuation, the largest one-day loss for any company in history.
  • The clash with Colombia, where Trump imposed tariffs and withdrew visas within hours of Petro's defiance, forcing a humiliating capitulation.
  • The rise of right-wing demagogues across Europe—AfD in Germany, Le Pen in France, Farage in Britain, FPÖ in Austria—all riding the anti-establishment mood that the traditional left has failed to channel.

The article is particularly sharp on the economic data: German industrial production down 7 percent since 2021, energy-intensive industries down 20 percent; British manufacturing output down 9 percent, metals down 35 percent, chemicals down 38 percent, electrical equipment down 49 percent. These figures ground the argument about European decline in concrete material reality.

Where the Argument Continues

The article is explicitly positioned as part of a broader corpus. Martín references the RCI's 2023 world perspectives document, the RCI manifesto, and earlier articles on the Draghi report and the European car industry crisis. The argument about the crisis of European capitalism is developed further in those texts, which provide the structural analysis that this article applies to the immediate conjuncture.

The analysis of Syria and the fall of Assad is referenced as having been covered in earlier IDOM articles. The discussion of the Ukraine war's military dynamics—particularly the failure of "wonder weapons" and the manpower crisis—is a recurring theme in the Against the Stream podcast, which is mentioned explicitly.

The article leaves open several questions that will require further analysis: whether Trump can actually deliver a Ukraine peace deal on Putin's terms; whether the Gaza ceasefire will hold given Netanyahu's stated intention to resume war; how the European ruling classes will respond to being abandoned by the US; and whether the radicalisation of youth—47 percent of British youth agreeing that "revolution" is needed—will find organised Marxist expression.

The question of Taiwan is raised but not resolved: Trump's apparent reluctance to defend Taiwan against China is noted, but the implications for the global balance of power are left for future analysis.

Connections

This article should be read alongside:

  • Trotsky's If America Should Go Communist — directly referenced for its analysis of the "energetic and violent" American temperament and the possibility of rapid political shifts.
  • Lenin's Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism — the theoretical foundation for understanding interimperialist rivalry and the drive for territorial redivision.
  • The RCI Manifesto and 2023 World Perspectives Document — the broader strategic framework within which this conjunctural analysis sits.
  • The Draghi Report on European Competitiveness — the bourgeois document that the article uses to expose the structural crisis of European capitalism.
  • Earlier IDOM articles on the European car industry crisis and the fall of the Assad regime — referenced as providing the detailed analysis that this article summarises.
  • Farrell Dobbs's Teamster Rebellion — mentioned as an example of how American workers can move from Republicanism to revolutionary Marxism in a single political lifetime.

The article also implicitly connects to the Marxist tradition of analysing Bonapartism and Caesarism, particularly in its treatment of Trump as a figure who concentrates executive power against the established state apparatus while representing the most aggressive fraction of the ruling class.

Key Quotes

  1. "Trump is not the cause of all this. He is certainly a symptom of deeper processes taking place, but at the same time, he is a factor which enormously accelerates events."

  2. "Biden's foreign policy was based on the refusal to accept the limitations of US power, and as a result of this, continuing foolishly in an attempt to maintain US domination over the whole world. That domination existed for the best part of 30 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but it is no more."

  3. "The difference now is that Trump does not care at all for any of these pretences. He seems determined to tear up the whole rulebook and express things more openly, as they really are. When he says the Panama Canal and Greenland are part of US national security interests, he is expressing the point of view of the US ruling class, without any subterfuge."

  4. "This is one example that demonstrates that state planning, in one way or another, is much superior to the anarchy of the free market economy, even when it comes to provisioning weapons for the war."

  5. "The question we need to ask ourselves is: what is going to happen when these formations come to power? Trump is in power already in the US. He has made many promises. He is riding on the expectations of millions of people who think that he is really going to Make America Great Again. ... But once reality sinks in and these illusions are dispelled, we will see an equally sharp and violent shift of the pendulum to the left."

  6. "The deep-seated anti-establishment mood that propelled Trump to power will express itself on the opposite side of the political spectrum."