The world turned upside down a system in crisis

Marxist Perspectives · 2025-06-06

Core Argument

The central thesis of this document is that capitalism has entered an organic crisis — not merely a cyclical downturn, but a structural impasse in which the system can no longer develop the productive forces or deliver even modest improvements in living standards. This crisis manifests across every dimension: economic stagnation masked by mountains of debt, the collapse of the liberal world order, the shift from globalisation to protectionism and trade wars, the relative decline of US imperialism, the rise of China as a rival imperialist power, and a deepening crisis of legitimacy for all bourgeois institutions. The article argues that Trump is not the cause of this turmoil but its most dramatic symptom — a reactionary demagogue riding a wave of anti-establishment anger that the reformist left first mobilised and then betrayed. The political conclusion is stark: the objective conditions for revolutionary upheaval are more advanced than at any point since the 1930s, but the subjective factor — a revolutionary leadership rooted in the working class — remains dangerously weak. The RCI's founding and growth represent the beginning of an answer, but the gap between objective possibility and subjective preparation remains the central contradiction of the period.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis is firmly rooted in the Marxist theory of imperialism as developed by Lenin and Trotsky, and in the Marxist understanding of the capitalist state and bourgeois democracy. The document draws on several key theoretical traditions:

The epoch of capitalist decay: The article situates the current conjuncture within the framework of capitalism's historical decline, where the system has outlived its progressive role and now produces wars, crises, and environmental destruction as a matter of course. This is a direct application of Lenin's analysis of imperialism as the highest — and final — stage of capitalism.

The tendency of the rate of profit to fall and overaccumulation: While the document does not use these terms explicitly, the underlying analysis is driven by them. The inability of capitalists to find productive fields of investment, the resort to quantitative easing and near-zero interest rates, the inflation of asset bubbles, and the massive accumulation of debt ($313 trillion globally, 330 percent of world GDP) are all symptoms of overaccumulation — capital that cannot be profitably invested in production and therefore circulates as fictitious capital.

The theory of fascism and Bonapartism: The article makes a careful theoretical distinction, drawing on Trotsky's What is National Socialism?, between genuine fascism (a mass movement of the petty bourgeoisie used to crush the working class and establish a totalitarian state) and the Trump phenomenon, which it argues is neither. Trumpism is characterised as a reactionary, anti-establishment demagoguery operating within the framework of bourgeois democracy. The article warns against the lazy application of labels like "fascist" or "Bonapartist" as substitutes for concrete analysis.

The theory of permanent revolution: This appears most explicitly in the analysis of the Middle East, where the article argues that the Palestinian national question cannot be resolved within the framework of capitalism, and that the revolution in the region must be socialist or it will not triumph at all. The critique of the Stalinist "two-stage" theory is a direct application of Trotsky's permanent revolution.

The crisis of reformism: The document traces the arc from the anti-austerity movements of 2011, through the rise of left reformist parties (Syriza, Podemos, Corbyn, Sanders), to their betrayal and collapse, which paved the way for right-wing demagogues. This is a concrete application of the Marxist understanding that reformism is not merely an inadequate strategy but a mechanism for channelling mass discontent back into safe bourgeois channels.

Conjunctural Relevance

The document is explicitly a world perspectives document, intended to orient the RCI for the period ahead. Its conjunctural analysis is exceptionally detailed and current:

The Trump presidency and the end of the liberal order: The article was published in June 2025, six months into Trump's second term. It analyses his tariff policies (the "Liberation Day" tariffs of 2 April 2025), his attempt to extricate the US from Ukraine, and his open abandonment of multilateralism. The collapse of the post-1945 "rules-based order" is treated as an accomplished fact.

The war in Ukraine: The document argues that the US faces a humiliating defeat. Russia has withstood sanctions, outproduces NATO in artillery and ammunition, and has shifted the military balance of forces decisively in its favour. The article notes that Russia's military spending, adjusted for purchasing power parity, now exceeds that of the entire European continent. Trump's attempt to reach a deal with Russia is analysed as a strategic recognition that the war does not serve US core interests — but the damage done by Biden's policy of pushing Russia into China's arms may be irreversible.

The rise of China: China is treated unambiguously as an imperialist power — a younger, more dynamic rival to the US. The article provides detailed data on China's dominance in rare earth extraction (69 percent) and refining (92 percent), its leadership in industrial robotics (51 percent of new global installations), and its growing military power. The analysis is careful to note China's contradictions (debt at 300 percent of GDP, regional inequality, youth unemployment) but argues that its state-directed capitalism gives it significant advantages in the coming confrontation.

The crisis in Europe: The withdrawal of the US "protective umbrella" has exposed the accumulated weaknesses of European imperialism. The article notes that Germany's post-Cold War model — cheap Russian energy, free trade with China, US military protection — has collapsed. The scramble to rearm is a panic response to the realisation that European capitalism cannot stand on its own.

The Middle East: The genocide in Gaza, the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, the Israel-Iran mini-war, and Turkey's regional ambitions are all analysed as expressions of the general crisis. The article is unsparing in its critique of Hamas's methods while insisting that the Palestinian national question can only be resolved through socialist revolution.

Mass movements: The document points to the revolutionary crisis in Serbia (the Novi Sad protests, now nine months old), the general strike in Greece over the Tempi railway disaster, the uprising in Bangladesh, and the storming of parliament in Kenya as evidence that the objective conditions for revolution are ripening. The youth are identified as the most radicalised layer.

Where the Argument Continues

This document is a world perspectives draft, intended as the basis for discussion at the RCI's first World Congress in Italy (August 2025). As such, it is a programmatic orientation document, not a detailed tactical analysis. Several lines of argument are left open:

The concrete analysis of Trump's economic policies: The article argues that tariffs will be inflationary and disruptive, but does not attempt to predict the precise trajectory of the US economy. The question of whether Trump's policies can achieve even a temporary, partial revival of US manufacturing is left open — the article suggests it is possible for a short period, but ultimately impossible given the structural crisis.

The question of fascism: The article rules out the application of the term to Trump, but does not rule out the possibility that the crisis could produce genuinely fascist movements in the future. The analysis of the class balance of forces — the proletarianisation of the middle class, the decline of the peasantry — suggests that the social base for classical fascism may no longer exist, but this is not fully developed.

The trajectory of the European Union: The article suggests that centrifugal tendencies may lead to the breakup of the EU, but does not attempt to predict how or when. The question of whether a break-up would be progressive or reactionary is not addressed.

The Chinese working class: The article describes the Chinese proletariat as "young, fresh, unsaddled by defeats, not bound by reformist organisations" and suggests that when it moves, it will "shake the world." But there is no analysis of the current state of the Chinese labour movement, the role of the Communist Party of China in controlling workers, or the prospects for independent organisation.

The question of nuclear war: The article argues that nuclear weapons rule out a world war in the coming period, but acknowledges that a "crazed Bonapartist leader" could change this. The conditions under which such a figure could arise are not explored.

These questions are likely to be taken up in subsequent IDOM articles, in the Against the Stream podcast series, and in the discussions at the World Congress. The RCI's Transitional Program and its various national perspectives documents would be the natural places to look for further development.

Connections

This document should be read alongside:

Trotsky, The Transitional Program (1938): The article explicitly invokes Trotsky's formulation that "the historical crisis of mankind is reduced to the crisis of the revolutionary leadership." The entire document is an attempt to apply the method of the Transitional Program to the current conjuncture.

Trotsky, What is National Socialism? (1933): The theoretical framework for distinguishing fascism from other forms of reactionary rule.

Trotsky, Nationalism and Economic Life (1934): Quoted directly in the analysis of protectionism.

Trotsky, If America Should Go Communist (1935): Referenced in the discussion of the American working class.

Lenin, Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism (1917): The theoretical foundation for the analysis of inter-imperialist rivalry.

The RCI's founding documents and theses: This document is a draft for discussion at the World Congress and should be read as part of a broader programmatic corpus.

Other IDOM articles on the war in Ukraine, the crisis in Europe, and the rise of China: The analysis here is consistent with the RCI's published positions but is more comprehensive.

Key Quotes

1. "We are not going through just another cyclical crisis of capitalism, but an organic crisis of capitalism."

2. "The key factor behind Trump's victory lies in his ability to tap into, articulate, and mobilise a widespread and deeply rooted anti-establishment sentiment that permeates American society."

3. "It was the abject failure of these left figures that paved the way for the rise of reactionary demagogues like Trump."

4. "The problem is that 'Bonapartism' is a very elastic term. It covers a wide gamut of things, starting with the classical concept of Bonapartism, which is basically rule by the sword. It is not useful to analyse the present Trump government in Washington in this fashion, which, despite its many peculiarities, still remains a bourgeois democracy. Our task is not to assign labels to things, but to follow the process as it unfolds and understand its essential aspects."

5. "The relative decline of US imperialism and the rise of China have created a situation in which some countries can balance one against the other and gain a small degree of autonomy to pursue their own interests, at the very least at a regional level."

6. "Trotsky wrote in the Transitional Program that 'the historical crisis of mankind is reduced to the crisis of the revolutionary leadership.' His words are now truer than ever. The subjective factor — that is, an organisation of revolutionary cadres rooted in the working class — is extremely weak when compared to the colossal tasks posed by history."