13. 1916-17: The Turning of the Tide¶
Core Argument¶
The dialectical reversal of the First World War, from a paroxysm of patriotic fervour to a revolutionary crisis, reached its tipping point in 1916-17. The battles of Verdun and the Somme epitomised the war’s futile attrition: Verdun cost over 700,000 casualties for a maximum gain of five miles, while the Somme, in 141 days, cost over one million casualties for a seven-mile advance. These slaughters shattered civilian morale, fuelling labour unrest, food riots, and a sharpening of class consciousness. Governments intensified surveillance—Germany’s Monatsberichte, Austria-Hungary’s nationality-based censorship, Russia’s Okhrana—but these proved ineffectual against the rising tide. Mutinies swept the armies: French troops refused orders in April 1917, leading to 554 death sentences (49 executed); Italian mutinies occurred; and German and Austrian naval revolts began. Tsarist Russia collapsed first in February 1917, triggered by International Women’s Day protests against war, hunger, and exploitation, which escalated into a general strike and fraternisation with troops. Yet the workers lacked the consciousness to complete the revolution, requiring nine more months of Bolshevik work for October. Austria-Hungary’s new Emperor Karl I, succeeding Franz Josef in November 1916, attempted reforms that only accelerated disorder; by 1918, strikes paralysed Austrian industry and naval mutinies broke out at Cattaro. The war’s economic and human cost—65 million mobilised, over 8 million killed, 21 million wounded—dissolved four empires and prepared the ground for world revolution.
Simultaneously, Emperor Karl secretly approached the Allies to negotiate a separate peace for Austria-Hungary. President Poincaré demanded Alsace-Lorraine, the German Saar and Landau, the Left Bank of the Rhine, and Constantinople for Russia—terms agreed in a secret Franco-Russian deal unknown to Britain. Lloyd George was ambivalent about returning Alsace-Lorraine. Karl accepted almost all demands but refused to cede Austro-Hungarian territory to Italy, which under the 1915 Treaty of London demanded the Tyrol, Trentino, and Istria. Italy’s foreign minister stated it had entered the war to destroy Austria. Karl also refused to declare war on Germany. The Austrian Foreign Minister, unaware of the emperor’s scheme, sought a general peace, not a betrayal. Karl was willing to sacrifice German interests but feared the German General Staff, which considered declaring war on Austria-Hungary. The peace plan collapsed due to inter-imperialist rivalries, demonstrating that the logic of imperialist war could not be undone by the machinations of a single Habsburg monarch, but only by the revolutionary overthrow of the entire system.