Report on the World Economic Crisis and the New Tasks of the Communist International¶
Core Argument¶
The 1914–1918 imperialist war shattered capitalist equilibrium across economic, class and international spheres, opening the epoch of revolution. Russia’s February and October 1917 revolutions were followed by mass strikes and revolutionary struggles throughout Europe, Japan and the United States until 1921. Yet by 1921 the bourgeoisie had consolidated its state apparatus, pushing Social-Democratic parties from government. This does not prove the Communist International’s programme bankrupt; revolution is a historical process requiring communist participation, not a predicted astronomical event.
The central question is whether world capitalist equilibrium has been restored. The evidence demonstrates it has not. Europe’s agricultural crop in 1920 stood 37 per cent below pre-war averages in belligerent countries, while trans-Atlantic output rose 21 per cent. Russia, formerly supplying 100 million double-quintals of grain, now supplied none, yet unsold grain piled up on American farms as world prices fell. World coal consumption reached 97 per cent of 1913 levels, but European output fell 18 per cent while North American output rose 13 per cent. The war destroyed approximately 1,200 billion gold marks—half the pre-war national wealth of belligerent states. State debts reached 1,000 billion gold marks, while paper and credit money rose from 28 billion to 220–280 billion marks.
Great Britain, the richest European power, is in accelerating decline. Coal output fell from 287 million tons in 1913 to 233 million in 1920; exports dropped to a third of pre-war levels. The national debt rose elevenfold, from £700 million to £7,709 million. The pound sterling has lost 24 per cent of its value against the US dollar. Across Europe, total material values produced have fallen by at least one-third. The United States now holds 40 per cent of the world’s iron and coal, 66–70 per cent of its oil, and 85 per cent of its automobiles. Almost half the world’s gold reserve is concentrated there. Europe owes the US $18 billion. The world’s economic centre of gravity has shifted decisively from Europe to America.
The current crisis is not a normal cyclical fluctuation but retribution for war devastation. Capitalism has entered a prolonged depression. Future upswings will be superficial and speculative; crises will be deeper and longer. Capitalist equilibrium has not been restored. The restoration of equilibrium would require intensified exploitation, currency stabilisation through state bankruptcy, lengthening the working week, and repealing the eight-hour day—each step undermining social equilibrium and driving the working class to struggle. The bourgeoisie has shifted from post-war concessions to a full counter-offensive, marking an epoch of counter-reformism. Communist parties must grasp the situation as a whole, participate actively in all trade unions and defensive struggles, and intervene to win the majority of the working class. Victory is not automatic; civil war demands political and tactical manoeuvring, combining enthusiasm with icy calculation.