The calm before the storm¶
Core Argument¶
In this chapter, Alan Woods analyses the volatile situation in Egypt on 26 January 2011, the day after mass demonstrations erupted across the country. The core argument is that the Mubarak regime is terminally unstable and that the revolutionary movement, though still in its early stages, has the potential to overthrow it — provided the working class intervenes decisively. Woods contrasts the superficial assessments of Western politicians and media with the more sober calculations of capital’s strategic thinkers.
Key claims include the following. First, the regime is cracking from within: unconfirmed reports that Gamal Mubarak fled the country with his family, and that Suzanne Mubarak was spotted at Heathrow, are treated as indicative of panic and internal decay, even if unverified. Second, the Western establishment — exemplified by Hillary Clinton’s claim that the Egyptian government is “stable” and a BBC “expert” who ruled out revolt due to high illiteracy and low internet penetration — is dangerously out of touch. Woods quotes the Washington Post editorial at length to show that serious bourgeois strategists recognise the regime is finished and that Washington must manage the transition, not prop up Mubarak. Third, the Muslim Brotherhood played no role in organising the protests and initially opposed them, only belatedly allowing members to attend; this is used as a polemic against European “Marxists” who tail-end Islamists.
The chapter draws on the historical precedent of the 1977 bread riots in Egypt and the 2009 Iranian Green Movement, noting that spontaneity without organisation and leadership can allow a regime to survive. Woods argues that the Egyptian movement’s strength lies in the working class, which has been schooled by a wave of strikes in recent years. The task is to generalise these into a national political general strike, coordinated through action committees in every factory, district and village. These committees could form an alternative power structure.
The polemical targets are multiple: Western politicians and media who misread the situation; the Muslim Brotherhood, exposed as a conservative force; and pseudo-Marxists who uncritically support Islamist movements. The chapter ends by projecting a revolutionary programme: a workers’ and peasants’ government, expropriation of imperialist property, and a Socialist Federation of the Middle East and Maghreb. The tone is urgent and partisan, written from within the unfolding events.