Skip to content

Analytical Summary: Against the Stream — "Who is the obstacle to peace in Ukraine and Trump's big beautiful bill"

Against The Stream · 2025-05-29

Core Argument

The central thesis is that the war in Ukraine has become a decisive battleground not merely between Russia and Ukraine, but between two contending factions of the Western ruling class. The "Atlanticist" wing — the dominant political establishment in the US and Europe that has governed for the past 80 years — is fighting for its survival. It cannot accept a negotiated peace because such a peace would be on Russia's terms, confirming the decline of US hegemony and accelerating the political crisis of the European establishment. Trump represents a different faction of capital, one that recognises the limits of US power and seeks to extricate itself from an unwinnable war. The establishment's response is to tie Trump down, to prevent any settlement, and to double down on a conflict that is bleeding Ukraine, Europe, and ultimately the working class, while the ruling class itself faces an insoluble economic contradiction: it cannot sustain its debt-fuelled model, but it cannot abandon it without triggering a crisis.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis draws on a classical Marxist understanding of the state as an expression of class rule, but with a crucial refinement: the ruling class is not monolithic. The episode distinguishes between the "Atlanticist" wing — the old liberal establishment that has dominated post-war capitalism — and the emergent populist-nationalist factions represented by Trump and Europe's far-right parties. Both serve capital, but they represent different strategies for managing the crisis of capitalism.

The argument is grounded in the materialist method: media distortions, diplomatic manoeuvres, and political posturing are traced back to the material interests of class fractions. The assassination of a Yanukovych aide in Madrid is not treated as a moral outrage but as evidence of which states can operate with impunity — a question of power, not justice.

The economic analysis draws on a Marxist understanding of the credit system and fictitious capital. The post-2008 and post-pandemic reliance on debt-fuelled stimulus is presented not as policy error but as the necessary response of a system that cannot resolve its internal contradictions. The "big beautiful bill" is analysed as a transfer of wealth upwards — tax cuts for capital and higher earners, paid for by cuts to healthcare and food stamps for the poor — which is the classic class logic of austerity dressed in populist clothing.

The episode also deploys a Leninist understanding of the conjuncture: the precondition for revolution is that the ruling class can no longer rule in the old way. The collapse of the centre-left/centre-right duopoly across Europe is presented as evidence that this precondition is being met, even if the working class has not yet found its own political expression.

Conjunctural Relevance

The episode is set in late May 2025 and addresses a specific conjuncture:

  • Ukraine war: Russia is advancing on multiple fronts (Pokrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy). Zelensky claims Russia mobilises 40-45,000 men per month to Ukraine's 25-27,000. The West is running out of options — Merz's suggestion of Taurus missiles (which can carry nuclear warheads) was quickly walked back. Negotiations have stalled, with a possible Vatican meeting mooted but uncertain.

  • US politics: The Lindsey Graham sanctions bill (500% tariffs on countries buying Russian energy) has 80 co-sponsors in the Senate, representing a bipartisan establishment effort to tie Trump's hands. Trump's own position is contradictory — he wants to end the war but is constrained by the funding already voted through by Biden.

  • European crisis: The Romanian election saw a pro-EU candidate win only after the previous election was cancelled and the front-runner arrested. Far-right parties (AfD, Le Pen, Kickl) are being kept out of power by establishment manoeuvres, but their support is growing. The FT's call for governments to "deliver" is exposed as hollow — there is nothing to deliver except austerity.

  • Economic crisis: US interest payments now consume 18% of the federal budget, projected to reach 30%. The "big beautiful bill" extends Trump's 2017 tax cuts (benefiting the top 10%) while cutting Medicaid (10 million lose coverage) and food stamps (5 million lose access). The gap between cuts and spending adds $400 billion annually to the deficit. Moody's has downgraded US debt. The Bank of England was forced by markets to taper. OECD interest payments on sovereign debt now exceed military spending in some countries.

  • Trade war: Trump's tariffs on China caused market panic, forcing a backtrack. The instability itself acts as a drag on investment — capital cannot plan under conditions of policy volatility.

Where the Argument Continues

The episode deliberately leaves open several threads:

  1. The nature of the populist parties: The episode argues they represent "burning anger against the establishment" but will fail because they serve the same system. This argument is developed in other Against the Stream episodes on the far right and the crisis of representation.

  2. The timing of the economic crisis: The hosts explicitly say they "don't have a crystal ball" on when the "perfect storm" of trade war, sovereign debt crisis, and corporate defaults will hit. This is a developing conjuncture that subsequent episodes will track.

  3. The question of working-class consciousness: The episode notes that anger is currently channelled through populist parties, but argues this will change when those parties fail. The question of how communists intervene in this process is the subject of the broader RCI corpus, including Spectre of Communism episodes on strategy and organisation.

  4. The developing world: The hosts note that interest rates in the global South are a separate topic requiring its own episode — this is an acknowledged gap.

Connections

  • Lenin, Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism: The analysis of inter-imperialist rivalry and the declining hegemon draws directly on Lenin's framework, though updated for the 21st century.

  • Trotsky, The Struggle for Power in Europe: The analysis of how war accelerates political crisis and polarises class forces echoes Trotsky's writings on the interwar period.

  • Other Against the Stream episodes: The episode references previous discussions on the nature of the European Union, the crisis of the left, and the rise of populism. These are part of an ongoing series that builds a cumulative analysis.

  • The RCI's theoretical work on the state: The distinction between different fractions of the ruling class and the concept of the "Atlanticist" organism is a developed position within the RCI's broader analysis of the current conjuncture.

  • Marx, Capital Volume 3: The analysis of the credit system and fictitious capital, though not explicitly referenced, is the theoretical foundation for the discussion of sovereign debt and market panic.

Key Quotes

  1. "The idea of demanding Russia accept a peace and withdraw is lunacy. But nevertheless, they do it. And I think the question is why? That is the question we have to ask."

  2. "This is their product and the more they have tied themselves to it the more desperately they need it to succeed because the defeat would accelerate this process which is inevitable — the downfall of this creature."

  3. "A precondition for revolution is that the ruling class can no longer rule in the way that they used to. And this is precisely what we're seeing in this present moment in time."

  4. "The whole economy is completely addicted to debt... the budget deficit is equivalent to five or six per cent of GDP. It's not very difficult maths to work out: if you cut the budget deficit to zero, that would bring the economy into recession."

  5. "The main question which is the whole point from our point of view is: who pays? And that's already what we're seeing in this big beautiful bill."