Trumps victory What does it mean A communist analysis with Alan Woods AGAINS

Against The Stream · 2024-11-06

Core Argument

The central thesis is that Trump's decisive victory in the 2024 US presidential election represents not a freak result or a triumph of fascism, but the political expression of a deep structural crisis within American capitalism. The argument proceeds on two levels.

First, the Democrats lost because they refused to address the material conditions of the working class. The party's entire campaign strategy — built around the "threat to democracy" narrative, identity politics, and the demonisation of Trump — was disconnected from the lived experience of ordinary Americans. The economy may have been "booming" in aggregate, but this masked a staggering increase in inequality: the top 1% take 21% of all personal income, more than double the share of the bottom 50%, while the bottom half own just 1% of all personal wealth. Working people felt worse off, and they voted accordingly. The CNN exit poll cited in the episode — 45% of voters said their family's financial situation was worse than four years ago, and 80% of those voted Trump — is presented as the decisive data point.

Second, Trump's victory is a symptom of the absence of a viable working-class alternative. The rage and discontent that propelled him are real, subterranean pressures built up over decades of declining living standards. Trump has tapped into this, but in a reactionary, demagogic way. The tragedy is that the left — exemplified by Bernie Sanders's capitulation to the Democratic establishment — vacated the field. Had a genuine working-class candidate been available, the same angry layers could have been won to a progressive programme. Instead, Trump is the only "anti-establishment" candidate on offer.

The episode also argues that Trump's victory will accelerate the turbulence already inherent in the global capitalist system. His isolationist instincts, hostility to NATO, tariff policies, and willingness to cut off funding for the Ukraine war will deepen the crisis of European capitalism and further strain an already overstretched American imperialism, which is running a $34 trillion national debt increasing by $1 trillion every three months.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis draws on classical Marxist understandings of the relationship between economics and politics, but does so through the lens of the conjuncture rather than as a mechanical application of categories.

The key theoretical move is the insistence that the economic base — the material conditions of the working class — must be the starting point for any political analysis. The episode explicitly rejects the liberal framing that treats politics as autonomous, as if elections are decided by messaging, media bias, or the personal qualities of candidates. Instead, it argues that the vast majority of Americans voted with their wallets, and that the Democrats' refusal to address this reality was their undoing.

The concept of class polarisation is central. The episode presents detailed data on inequality not as a static fact but as a dynamic process: the gap between rich and poor has created an "absolute unbridgeable abysm" that generates enormous social tension. This is presented in geological terms — "a colossal subterranean accumulation of rage" building up pressure that will eventually find an outlet. This is a recognisably Marxist understanding of how class antagonism drives political crisis.

The analysis of Trump as a Bonapartist or Caesarist figure is implicit rather than explicit, but it is present. Trump is described as a "loose cannon" who is unpredictable and therefore dangerous to the establishment precisely because he cannot be controlled. The episode notes that the entire bourgeois establishment was bitterly hostile to Trump, which would be inexplicable if he and Harris were simply identical. The implication is that Trump represents a rupture within the ruling class itself — a figure who, for his own reactionary purposes, appeals over the heads of the traditional political apparatus directly to the masses. This is the classic terrain of Bonapartism: a strongman who emerges when the normal mechanisms of bourgeois democracy are exhausted.

The analysis of American imperialism in decline draws on Lenin's theory of imperialism as the highest stage of capitalism, but updates it for the current conjuncture. The United States remains the most powerful nation on earth, but it is "overstretched" — militarily, economically, and fiscally. The $34 trillion national debt, the inability to supply Ukraine with the weapons it demands, the simultaneous entanglement in Europe and the Middle East and the Pacific: all point to an empire that has reached the limits of its capacity. The historical analogy with the decline and fall of the Roman Empire is explicitly invoked.

The episode also contains a clear statement of the Marxist critique of reformism and the "lesser evil" strategy. The argument that the left should have supported Harris to keep out Trump is rejected on two grounds: first, because the Biden-Harris administration was objectively worse for the working class than Trump's first term; second, because the "lesser evil" approach disarms the working class and leaves the field open for demagogues of the right. This is a settled position of the Revolutionary Communist International tradition, not an editorial stance requiring debate.

Conjunctural Relevance

The episode was recorded immediately after the 2024 US presidential election results became clear, and it engages directly with the specific data and events of that moment.

Economic data: The episode cites specific figures on inequality — top 1% take 21% of income, bottom 50% own 1% of wealth — and connects them to the lived experience of working Americans. The CNN exit poll showing 45% of voters felt worse off than four years ago, with 80% of those voting Trump, is presented as the key empirical finding. The episode also notes that 40% of Americans live in households that have recently taken on additional income just to make ends meet, and that 23% of those say even that does not cover their bills.

The failure of the Democratic campaign: The episode notes that out of 244 newspapers surveyed, 199 endorsed Harris and only 16 endorsed Trump, yet this had no effect because nobody believes the media anymore. The Gallup poll showing only 31% of Americans trust the mass media is cited. The episode also highlights the quote from a Democratic canvasser in Reading, Pennsylvania, who said he had not heard a single person talk about "saving democracy" — they were asking why gas and rent were so high.

Geopolitical implications: The episode argues that Trump's victory will have immediate consequences for the Ukraine war, which the episode treats as lost. Trump is expected to cut off funding and force a settlement, passing the bill to Europe. The episode also notes the crisis of German deindustrialisation — Volkswagen closing factories, the chemical industry shutting down — as a direct consequence of the Ukraine war and the severing of Russian energy supplies.

The crisis of European capitalism: The episode argues that Europe will be the biggest loser from Trump's victory. He will demand that Europeans pay for their own defence, impose tariffs on European goods, and show no concern for European interests. The episode describes this as America passing the bill to Europe, which is already in a "terrible state" economically.

The overstretch of American imperialism: The $34 trillion national debt, increasing by $1 trillion every three months, is presented as unsustainable. The episode argues that the US cannot simultaneously fund wars in Ukraine and the Middle East while confronting China, and that Trump's isolationist instincts will accelerate the process of imperial overreach.

Where the Argument Continues

The episode is a current affairs intervention, not a theoretical treatise, and it deliberately leaves several questions open.

What form will the working-class response take? The episode predicts that the turbulence unleashed by Trump's presidency will eventually generate a revolutionary force on the left, but it does not specify the form this will take or the timeframe. This is a deliberate openness — the episode ends with "watch this space." The broader argument about the necessity of building a revolutionary party is developed across the RCI's corpus, particularly in The Spectre of Communism podcast and in Alan Woods' longer works such as Marxism and the USA.

What will Trump actually do in the Middle East? The episode explicitly says it does not know what Trump will do on Gaza and Israel, and that Trump himself probably does not know. This question is left open for future analysis.

The crisis of European capitalism: The episode mentions the deindustrialisation of Germany and the economic crisis facing Europe, but does not develop this in detail. This thread is taken up in other Against the Stream episodes dealing with the Ukraine war and the European debt crisis.

The decline of American imperialism: The historical analogy with the Roman Empire is suggestive but not fully worked out. The question of whether the United States is approaching a terminal crisis of its imperial system is left as a question for further analysis. This is developed in Alan Woods' broader writings on the crisis of capitalism and in the RCI's theoretical journal.

Connections

Within the RCI corpus: The episode should be read alongside Alan Woods' article on the same subject published simultaneously on Marxist.com. It also connects to previous Against the Stream episodes on the Ukraine war, the crisis of European capitalism, and the analysis of Trump's first term. The Spectre of Communism podcast develops the theoretical framework of imperialism and the crisis of capitalism in greater depth.

Broader Marxist texts: The analysis of Bonapartism and Caesarism draws on Marx's The Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte, which remains the classic Marxist analysis of a strongman who emerges when class struggle reaches a stalemate. Lenin's Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism is the theoretical foundation for the analysis of American overstretch. Trotsky's writings on fascism and Bonapartism — particularly The Struggle Against Fascism in Germany — provide the framework for distinguishing between a reactionary demagogue like Trump and a genuine fascist movement.

Contemporary Marxist analysis: The episode shares common ground with analyses from the International Marxist Tendency (the RCI's predecessor) and with the work of economists like Michael Roberts on the crisis of profitability and the tendency of the rate of profit to fall, though the episode does not deploy these categories explicitly.

Key Quotes

1. "There's been a colossal increase, a staggering increase in inequality in recent years in the United States. The top 1% of Americans take 21% of all personal incomes in America, which is more than double the share of the bottom 50%. The same top 1% own 35% of all personal wealth, while the bottom 50% own just 1%."

2. "This colossal subterranean accumulation of rage that exists against the injustice of it all — the injustice of the poverty on the one hand and the extreme wealth and luxury and power on the other hand. It's a bit like geology: under the Earth's surface there is a building up of enormous pressure and colossal temperatures which is seeking a way out, and eventually this accumulation of discontent will find a way out and will explode one way or another."

3. "The argument of the so-called left — you must support the lesser evil — should be knocked on the head sharply and with a very heavy hammer. They got four years of Biden and Kamala, and what did that lead to? War in Ukraine, war in the Middle East, giving a blank check to slaughter people in Gaza, falling living standards for the workers, and more profits to the rich. What sort of lesser evil is that?"

4. "America is running a deficit of $34 trillion — a staggering amount. This colossal mountain of debt is increasing by the sum of one trillion dollars every three months. That is unsustainable. And yet the demands on American power are increasing all the time."

5. "Every action has an equal and opposite reaction. Out of this tremendous mass of contradictions, there will emerge a formidable force, a revolutionary force on the left. This whole discussion would have been unthinkable just ten years ago — people talking about revolution in the United States. Well, it's not unthinkable anymore."