Against the Stream: Trump's UN Speech & Italy Rises for Palestine

Against The Stream · 2025-09-25

Core Argument

The central thesis of this episode is that a new global wave of class struggle is emerging, synchronised across both the former colonial world and the advanced capitalist heartlands, and that the Palestinian cause is acting as a catalyst for this convergence. The hosts argue that the ruling classes—particularly in Europe—are trapped: they must impose brutal austerity to service debt and fund militarisation, but they lack the political authority to do so, having lost the material basis for the social concessions that bought stability in the post-war period. Trump's UN speech is analysed not primarily for its content but as a symptom of US imperial decline and the intensifying pressure Washington is placing on its European rivals, forcing them to bear the costs of a war they cannot win and an economic model they can no longer sustain.

The episode's political claim is that the Italian general strike called by the USB union, and the subsequent forced left-turn by the CGIL, represents a qualitative shift—a potential "Hot Autumn" moment in which rank-and-file militancy forces the official labour bureaucracy to move or be bypassed. The argument is that Gaza has become the lens through which accumulated class anger is now being refracted.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis draws on several classical Marxist concepts, though it deploys them through concrete political reporting rather than abstract exposition:

Imperialism and uneven development: The hosts situate the current conjuncture within Lenin's framework of inter-imperialist rivalry, arguing that the US is now squeezing its European allies—forcing them to buy expensive American energy and weapons, pay for the Ukraine war, and accept the social consequences—just as the British Empire once drained its colonies. This is presented as a symptom of relative US decline, not strength.

The labour aristocracy thesis: Trotsky's argument that imperialist super-profits allowed the metropolitan bourgeoisie to bribe a layer of the working class is invoked to explain why European living standards are now being destroyed. The hosts argue that the material basis for this "social peace" has collapsed, and that the European working class will therefore face attacks without historical precedent.

Combined and uneven development: The episode notes that revolutionary movements now learn from each other across borders—the "Block Everything" tactic from France appearing in Italy, the burning of parliament buildings spreading from Sri Lanka to Nepal—suggesting a global synchronisation of struggle that was absent in earlier periods.

The accumulation of misery: Marx's formulation from Capital is quoted directly: the hosts argue that the grotesque flaunting of wealth on social media alongside the immiseration of youth is a living confirmation of Marx's law of capitalist accumulation, not a refutation of it.

The episode sits within the Trotskyist tradition, specifically the Revolutionary Communist International's analysis of the current period as one of "pre-revolutionary" turbulence in which the objective conditions for revolution are ripening but the subjective factor—a revolutionary party—remains absent. The rejection of reformism is not argued but assumed: the point is that the system cannot be fixed, only overthrown.

Conjunctural Relevance

The episode is tightly anchored to specific events and data:

Trump's UN speech (September 2025): The hosts note that Trump's rambling performance—his attacks on Europe, his scapegoating of immigrants, his boasts about an economy that is actually stagnating—reflects a president who has failed to deliver on any of his major promises (ending the Ukraine and Gaza wars, reducing inflation, creating jobs). They cite specific figures: US food inflation at 3.2%, unemployment at its highest since 2021, real wages not growing as claimed.

The Ukraine war: The hosts argue that Trump's Truth Social posts—threatening sanctions on Russia while simultaneously telling Europe to pay for its own defence—represent a strategic withdrawal. They note that The Economist estimates a $45-60 billion shortfall in Ukraine's 2026 budget, and ask where Europe will find this money given France's debt crisis (servicing costs now exceeding Greek levels) and Italy's debt at 140% of GDP.

The Italian general strike (September 2025): The USB union called a strike in solidarity with the Gaza flotilla; half a million people turned out across 80 cities, including 100,000 in Rome. The CGIL, the main trade union confederation, had called a separate two-hour strike days earlier—an attempt to pre-empt the mobilisation—but was humiliated by the scale of the response. The hosts report that CGIL bureaucrats are now "depressed" and have been forced to threaten a general strike if the flotilla is attacked.

The global wave: The episode lists simultaneous uprisings in Indonesia, Nepal, France, Italy, the Philippines, Peru, Madagascar, and Spain. It notes common features: youth leadership, attacks on state institutions (burning parliaments, occupying presidential palaces), and a rejection of all established parties.

European decline: Specific data points include Italy's average wage (€1,700, half of Germany's), youth unemployment at 22%, 70% of Italians changing food spending habits, and trust in parliament at 19%. France is described as facing a "Greek-type scenario" with €44 billion in announced cuts.

Where the Argument Continues

The episode deliberately leaves open several questions that are developed elsewhere in the RCI corpus:

The nature of the Italian movement: The hosts note that the USB is a "marginal" union without mass influence, and that the CGIL's forced left-turn is fragile. Whether this becomes a sustained revolutionary upsurge or another defeated wave is not resolved. This connects to broader RCI discussions about the relationship between spontaneous militancy and conscious leadership.

The fate of right-wing populism: The hosts predict that figures like Farage, Le Pen, and Meloni will eventually be exposed once they have to govern and implement austerity. This argument is developed more systematically in other Against the Stream episodes analysing the AfD and the British far-right.

The Palestinian question as catalyst: The episode argues that Gaza is acting as a "trigger" for class struggle in Europe, but does not fully theorise the relationship between anti-imperialist solidarity and domestic class politics. This thread is taken up in Spectre of Communism episodes on the flotilla and on the political economy of Zionism.

The missing subjective factor: The hosts repeatedly note that the missing element is a revolutionary party capable of giving leadership. This is the central political project of the RCI, and is developed across the entire corpus, particularly in episodes on party-building and the history of the communist movement.

Connections

Within the corpus: This episode should be read alongside Against the Stream episodes on the French "Block Everything" movement, the Indonesian uprising, and the crisis of European social democracy. The Spectre of Communism series on the law of value and the tendency of the rate of profit to fall provides the theoretical underpinning for the economic analysis here.

Broader Marxist texts: The analysis of inter-imperialist rivalry draws on Lenin's Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism. The discussion of the labour aristocracy and the material basis for reformism draws on Trotsky's The Transitional Programme and his writings on the post-war settlement. The invocation of Marx's "accumulation of misery" is from Capital, Volume I, Chapter 25.

Contemporary analysis: The hosts' argument that the post-war boom was an exception, not the norm, and that capitalism is now returning to its crisis-ridden default, echoes the work of Robert Brenner on the long downturn and the Monthly Review school on monopoly capital. The emphasis on the synchronisation of struggle across the global North and South is a distinctive RCI contribution.

Key Quotes

1. "The United Nations is the heads of all the governments of the world coming together. How can anybody with a minimum of intelligence think that if you take 180 gangsters and put them together, they're suddenly going to become nice people who go to church on Sunday and smile at you all the time?"

2. "What he's saying to the Europeans is basically, 'You can't count on America anymore.' NATO de facto is an alliance in which the biggest contributor, the one with the biggest army, the most powerful military force in this alliance, is saying to the others, 'You can't count on me. You got to do it yourselves. Pay up and build up your military. And by the way, as you haven't got the weaponry, the advanced weaponry, you got to buy it from us.'"

3. "The CGIL has been forced to make a sudden turn. The biggest Trade Union Confederation in Italy has announced that if the flotilla is attacked, they will call a general strike. Now, a general strike called by the biggest confederation. You know what this reminds me of? The Hot Autumn in 1969."

4. "Marx analysed capitalism. One of the things he explained was, there's the process of concentration of capital in the hands of fewer and fewer people at one end of society. But the effect of that at the other end was growing levels of poverty. Now for decades, the clever University academics and all these people who write about Marxism and try and interpret it, say that 'Marx got it wrong, because he predicted that people would get poorer, huh? Look at the post war boom.' You know? What Marx did was analyse a process which inevitably leads in a certain direction."

5. "The layer of particularly the young ones who are openly seeking communist ideas, they've realised that the system is rotten and that you cannot reform this system. It has to be removed. A revolution is necessary. Get rid of all of them. Well, the only way you can do that is with a united working class and with a leadership. That is actually the one element that's missing, and that's what needs to be built."