Skip to content

Netanyahu and the rules-based order Lebanon ceasefire Macron in trouble AGAIN

Against The Stream · 2024-11-29

Core Argument

The central thesis of this episode is that the international "rules-based order" is unravelling under the pressure of capitalist crisis and shifting imperialist rivalries, and that this unravelling is exposing the system's true nature to ever wider layers of the working class. The hosts argue that the ICC arrest warrant for Netanyahu, the Lebanon ceasefire, and the French political crisis are not separate events but expressions of the same underlying dynamic: the relative decline of US imperialist dominance, the weaponisation of international institutions by the very powers that created them, and the intensification of class struggle as ruling classes attempt to make workers pay for the system's deepening contradictions.

The episode makes three interconnected claims: first, that the ICC warrant reveals the hypocrisy of Western "international law" — a system designed to discipline enemies while protecting allies, now being forced to act against its own masters to maintain any remaining legitimacy; second, that the Lebanon ceasefire reflects Israel's military exhaustion and the shifting regional balance of forces, including the pressure of Trump's election and the limits of US willingness to be dragged into a wider war; third, that the French government crisis is a direct consequence of the ruling class's inability to impose austerity on a working class that is increasingly unwilling to pay for a crisis it did not create.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis draws on the Marxist understanding of the state and international law as instruments of class rule, not neutral arbiters. The hosts reject liberal notions of a "rules-based order" as a cover for imperialist domination, arguing that international institutions (ICC, UN, WTO, SWIFT system) were established in the post-Soviet period to reflect and enforce US hegemony. When that hegemony is challenged, the ruling class weaponises these institutions against rivals (Putin) while protecting its own (Netanyahu), thereby undermining the very legitimacy the institutions require to function.

The episode also deploys a materialist analysis of war and diplomacy. The Lebanon ceasefire is not explained through the lens of "peacemaking" or "humanitarian concern" but as a product of: military exhaustion (depletion of Israeli stockpiles, falling reserve turnout), the limits of air power against entrenched resistance (a point with echoes of Vietnam and Afghanistan), and the pressure of intra-imperialist rivalry (Trump wanting the war finished before his term begins). This is classical Marxist analysis of war as an extension of politics by other means, where the "politics" in question are the competing interests of capitalist states and classes.

The French crisis is grounded in the contradiction between the needs of capital accumulation (debt repayment, austerity, labour market "flexibility") and the resistance of the working class. The hosts note that the ruling class has been "afraid" to impose the full weight of cuts because of the anticipated reaction — a recognition that class struggle shapes the tempo and form of capitalist crisis management. The use of Article 49.3 (emergency powers) to bypass parliamentary democracy is presented not as an aberration but as the normal operation of the bourgeois state when its interests are threatened.

The broader theoretical framework is the Marxist understanding of the current conjuncture as one of transition between periods of imperialist stability and instability. The hosts argue that the post-Soviet unipolar moment is over, that the relative decline of US power is creating space for multiple imperialist rivals (China, Russia, regional powers like Iran), and that this realignment is generating wars, revolutions, and political crises on a world scale. This is explicitly linked to the Marxist concept of the struggle between "form and content" — the legal and political forms established under one balance of forces being violently broken by the changing material reality beneath them.

Conjunctural Relevance

The episode is tightly connected to the immediate conjuncture of late 2024. The ICC warrant for Netanyahu was issued in November 2024, and the hosts provide specific detail: the charges (starvation as a method of warfare, murder as a crime against humanity, inhumane acts), the evidence period (up to May 2024), and the subsequent six months of intensified siege in northern Gaza. They cite Save the Children's report of 130,000 children under 10 trapped without food or medical supplies, and note that Biden's 30-day ultimatum to Israel produced nothing.

The Lebanon ceasefire is analysed in its immediate context: the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the pager attacks, the displacement of 1 million people (one-fifth of Lebanon's population), and the specific terms of the agreement (Hezbollah withdrawal north of the Litani, Israeli withdrawal within 60 days, US letter of guarantee allowing Israel to claim self-defence at any time). The hosts identify Trump's election as a decisive factor — his demand that Netanyahu "finish the war before I come into power" is presented as the key pressure that forced the ceasefire.

The French crisis is located in specific data: 6.1% budget deficit (against EU 3% target), 112% debt-to-GDP ratio, 60 billion euros in proposed cuts (40 billion spending cuts, 20 billion tax increases), 150,000 industrial job losses announced, the Michelin and Auchan closures, and the use of Article 49.3 to bypass parliament. The hosts note that 68% of French people oppose the budget and 53% want the government to fall — figures that ground the analysis in concrete class sentiment.

The geopolitical dimension is explicitly linked to the changing balance of forces: the weaponisation of SWIFT and dollar systems against Russia, the freezing of $300 billion in Russian assets, the defunding of UNRWA, and the broader crisis of trust in US-dominated institutions. The hosts argue that by using these institutions as weapons against rivals, the US is destroying the very legitimacy that made them useful instruments of hegemony.

Where the Argument Continues

The episode deliberately leaves open several threads that are developed elsewhere in the Against the Stream corpus and in broader Marxist theory:

  • The nature of the ICC and international law: The hosts note that the US has never signed the ICC and passed the "Hague Invasion Act" (2002) authorising military action to free any US or allied personnel arrested by the court. This is a reference point for a broader Marxist analysis of imperialist "legalism" that is developed in other episodes dealing with the Ukraine war and the prosecution of Putin.

  • The crisis of the Israeli state: The hosts point to falling reserve turnout (from 100% to 85%), the split between far-right settlers and urban populations, and Netanyahu's personal interest in prolonging war to avoid prosecution. These themes are explored in depth in earlier episodes on the Gaza war and the internal contradictions of Israeli society.

  • The French class struggle: The December 11 national day of action called by the CGT, the railway strikes, and the broader wave of industrial action are flagged as developments to watch. The hosts reference an article by French comrades on marxist.com that provides more detailed sectoral analysis.

  • The European dimension: The collapse of the German government over similar budget disputes, the deindustrialisation of Germany, and the Spanish housing protests are mentioned as parallel developments. These are treated as part of a continent-wide pattern that will be returned to in future episodes.

  • The Trump factor: The hosts note that Trump's election changes the geopolitical calculus but refrain from predicting his specific policies, promising to analyse them as they unfold. This is consistent with the Marxist method of concrete analysis of concrete situations rather than abstract speculation.

The broader theoretical thread — the transition from unipolar to multipolar imperialism, the crisis of international institutions, and the intensification of class struggle — is developed across the Against the Stream and Spectre of Communism series, as well as in the RCI's theoretical journal and on marxist.com.

Connections

  • Lenin, Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism: The analysis of inter-imperialist rivalry and the weaponisation of international institutions draws directly on Lenin's theory of imperialism as a system of competing capitalist states.

  • Trotsky, The Permanent Revolution: The hosts' argument that the bourgeois programme of international law can only be completed by the working class — "expropriate the whole ruling class and arrest them" — echoes the permanent revolution's insistence that the democratic tasks of the bourgeois revolution can only be carried out by the proletariat.

  • Against the Stream episodes on Ukraine: The comparison between the ICC's treatment of Putin and Netanyahu, and the analysis of the weaponisation of SWIFT and dollar systems, connects to earlier episodes on the Ukraine war and the crisis of the post-Soviet order.

  • Spectre of Communism episodes on the Middle East: The detailed analysis of the regional balance of forces — Iran's rising influence, the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement, the decoupling of the Lebanon and Gaza fronts — builds on the RCI's ongoing coverage of the region.

  • Marxist.com articles on France: The hosts explicitly reference an article by French comrades on the strike wave and the political crisis, which provides the sectoral detail that the podcast format cannot accommodate.

  • The concept of "permanent revolution" in international law: The hosts' suggestion that the bourgeois legal order can only be realised through the revolutionary expropriation of the ruling class is a provocative theoretical claim that connects to broader debates about the relationship between law, state, and revolution in Marxist theory.

Key Quotes

  1. "The West is just as complicit — it's not enough from our point of view that Netanyahu is put on trial. All of the leaders of the West should be put on trial."

  2. "This is the rules-based world order, isn't it? There are certain rules for our friends, there are certain rules for our enemies."

  3. "By weaponizing all of these institutions — their own institutions which previously were allowed to function and were used by everyone — they're actually undermining them, they're undermining the whole notion of the International Community, the UN, international law, and they're actually showing to the whole world how it really works."

  4. "The ruling class in France needs a strong government, and what it has now is the weakest government in decades — which is a reflection of the rising class struggle."

  5. "The struggle between form and content in the class struggle is what causes a revolution. You have a situation where a certain balance of forces leads to a certain legal and political situation, a state is established, its legal basis is established — then the balance of forces changes underneath the surface, and sooner or later that will have a reflection, and that will be a violent one."