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Against the Stream: German Elections, the European Madhouse, and the US-Ukraine Mineral Deal

Against The Stream · 2025-02-28

Core Argument

The central thesis of this episode is that the German federal election of February 2025 represents not a victory for the establishment but a profound crisis of legitimacy for the entire German political order, and by extension for European capitalism as a whole. The hosts argue that Friedrich Merz's CDU/CSU, despite "winning" the election, received its second-worst result since 1945, while the SPD collapsed to levels not seen since the 1880s. The real story is the surge of anti-establishment parties on both right and left — the AfD doubling its vote to 20.8% and Die Linke recovering to 9% — reflecting a working class in revolt against a system that offers no出路.

This domestic crisis is situated within a broader geopolitical realignment. The episode argues that the US under Trump has abandoned even the pretence of liberal internationalism and is now openly treating Europe as a rival to be divided and dominated. Macron's humiliating visit to Washington, the UN Security Council vote where the US sided with Russia and China against European allies, and the proposed Ukraine mineral deal — which the hosts characterise as a colonial extraction agreement — all demonstrate that the era of US "protection" of Europe is over, replaced by a naked great-power carve-up.

The connecting thread is the crisis of capitalism itself. The German economic model — built on cheap Russian gas, exports to China, labour exploitation via Hartz reforms, and a weak euro — has collapsed. Deindustrialisation is accelerating, with Volkswagen closing German factories for the first time in history. The political class offers only more austerity, more militarisation, and more attacks on living standards. The result is a volatile, polarised situation where working-class anger finds expression through distorted channels — the AfD on the right, Die Linke on the left — while the establishment parties haemorrhage support.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis draws on classical Marxist understandings of the capitalist state and its relationship to crisis, though it does so implicitly rather than through explicit theoretical exposition. Several key Marxist concepts underpin the argument:

The nation-state as a barrier to productive forces: The hosts explicitly invoke Marx and Engels' observation that the nation-state, once a progressive force for unifying markets, has become a fetter on further development. They apply this to contemporary Europe, arguing that the continent's fragmentation into competing nation-states — each with its own ruling class pursuing "Germany First" or "France First" strategies — prevents the unified response that might otherwise be possible. This is a sophisticated application of the theory of combined and uneven development to the current conjuncture.

The crisis of legitimacy: While not using Gramscian terminology, the episode describes a classic organic crisis — a situation where the ruling class can no longer rule in the old way, and the masses can no longer live in the old way. The collapse of the SPD's working-class vote, the rise of the AfD among industrial workers, and the generational divide (voters under 45 overwhelmingly reject establishment parties) all point to a rupture in the normal mechanisms of bourgeois democratic consent.

Imperialism and the carving up of the world: The treatment of the Ukraine war and the mineral deal draws on Lenin's analysis of interimperialist rivalry. The hosts argue that Ukraine was never truly independent — it was either a pawn of Western imperialism or within Russia's sphere of influence. The current carve-up, with the US extracting mineral wealth and Russia securing territorial gains, is presented as a classic case of great powers dividing spheres of influence, with the rights of small nations used as rhetorical cover.

The labour aristocracy and the betrayal of social democracy: The SPD's transformation from a Marxist party in the 1880s to an enforcer of austerity is presented as a cautionary tale. The hosts note that Die Linke's previous electoral successes were squandered through participation in coalition governments that implemented austerity — a pattern that echoes the broader Marxist critique of social democracy's integration into the capitalist state.

The analysis sits within the revolutionary Marxist tradition, specifically the strain that rejects both reformism and social democracy as dead ends. The RCI's position — that only a revolutionary working-class party can offer a genuine alternative — is implicit throughout, particularly in the discussion of Die Linke's limitations and the need to "build a real genuine revolutionary force."

Conjunctural Relevance

The episode is remarkably specific about the data and events that ground its analysis:

German election results: The hosts provide precise figures — CDU/CSU 28.5% (second worst since 1945), SPD 16.4% (lowest since 1880s), AfD 20.8% (doubled), Greens 11.6%, FDP 4.6% (out of parliament), Die Linke 9%, BSW 4.97% (just below threshold). They note that 1.8 million new AfD voters came from previous abstainers, 1 million from the CDU, 890,000 from the FDP, and 720,000 from the SPD.

Class composition of the AfD vote: Crucially, the hosts cite polling showing that among blue-collar industrial workers, the AfD is now the first party with 37% (up from 21% in 2021), while the SPD has collapsed from 26% to 12%. They correlate AfD support with low GDP per capita and high industrial employment, demonstrating that this is not simply a "cultural backlash" but a class phenomenon.

German economic crisis: The episode cites a 20% decline in industrial production, with another 20% predicted. Volkswagen is closing German factories for the first time in history and planning 10% workforce cuts with 10% wage reductions. ThyssenKrupp is cutting 11,000 jobs. The town of Gelsenkirchen has the lowest average income in Germany (under €18,000 per year) and 24% unemployment.

Geopolitical realignment: The hosts reference JD Vance's Munich speech supporting the AfD, Macron's failed Washington visit (described by an EU official as "completely useless"), the UN Security Council vote where the US, Russia, and China voted together against European allies, and the proposed Ukraine mineral deal requiring 50% of future resource revenues to go to a US-managed fund.

The mineral deal: The hosts describe the framework agreement as requiring 50% of proceeds from all new Ukrainian resource extraction (gas, oil, minerals, rare earths) to go to a fund jointly managed but effectively controlled by the US. They note Boris Johnson's characterisation of the original terms as "worse than the Versailles Treaty" — yet Johnson still supports the deal.

Where the Argument Continues

The episode deliberately leaves several threads open for further development:

The nature of the AfD: The hosts distinguish between the party's reactionary leadership and the progressive aspirations of its working-class base, but do not fully theorise how this contradiction will develop. This connects to broader discussions in the Marxist tradition about fascism, Bonapartism, and the relationship between mass base and leadership in right-wing populist movements. The RCI's analysis of Trump and Reform UK in previous episodes (referenced in the transcript) would be relevant here.

Die Linke's trajectory: The hosts note the party's electoral recovery but express deep scepticism about its leadership, citing Gregor Gysi's reformist statements. The question of whether Die Linke will repeat its previous pattern of joining coalition governments and losing support is left open. This connects to the broader Marxist critique of left reformism and the question of what a genuinely revolutionary party would look like in the German context.

The European disintegration: The hosts argue that Europe cannot unite against Trump because of centrifugal national tendencies, but do not fully explore the mechanisms by which this disintegration will unfold. The reference to Martin Wolf's Financial Times article ("The US is now the enemy of the West") provides a liberal counterpart to the Marxist analysis, but the episode leaves the concrete trajectory — which countries will align with which great power, and how — for future discussion.

The Ukraine carve-up: The hosts note that the mineral deal suits Russian interests, as it gives them leverage over European and American investments in Ukraine, but do not develop the implications for the post-war settlement. The reference to the 2022 Istanbul agreement as the basis for negotiations suggests a return to pre-war territorial arrangements, but the hosts leave the political status of Ukraine unresolved.

The rebuilding of the Soviet Union: The most provocative thread is the suggestion, attributed to a comrade at an RCI meeting, that "the only way to guarantee the sovereignty of Ukraine makes any sense is through the rebuilding of the Soviet Union." This is not developed in the episode, but clearly points towards a revolutionary internationalist position that transcends both Ukrainian nationalism and Russian great-power chauvinism.

Connections

This episode should be read alongside:

Other Against the Stream episodes: The hosts reference a previous episode on Reform UK and Trump, suggesting a series on the rise of right-wing populism in the context of capitalist crisis. The discussion of the European disintegration also connects to earlier episodes on the Ukraine war and the sanctions regime.

Lenin's "Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism": The analysis of the Ukraine mineral deal and the carve-up of spheres of influence is a direct application of Lenin's theory of interimperialist rivalry. The hosts' treatment of the "rights of small nations" as rhetorical cover for imperialist ambitions echoes Lenin's critique of the "self-determination" slogan in the context of World War I.

Trotsky's "The Death Agony of Capitalism and the Tasks of the Fourth International": The hosts' observation that "when it's time for a regime or a social system to go down, history will find the right leaders to do so" is attributed to Trotsky and captures the sense of terminal crisis that pervades the episode.

Marx and Engels on the nation-state: The hosts explicitly reference Marx and Engels' analysis of the nation-state as a barrier to productive forces, which can be found in "The Communist Manifesto" and Engels' "The Origin of the Family, Private Property and the State."

The RCI's theoretical corpus: The episode's treatment of the relationship between class consciousness and political organisation — the working class's anger finding distorted expression through the AfD for lack of a revolutionary alternative — is a recurring theme in RCI publications. The call to "build a real genuine revolutionary force" points towards the RCI's own project of constructing a revolutionary communist international.

Contemporary Marxist analysis of Germany: The episode's detailed class breakdown of the AfD vote and its correlation with deindustrialisation echoes the work of Marxist economists like Michael Roberts and the analysis of the German crisis by the Institute for Marxist Analysis in Berlin.

Key Quotes

  1. "This is being portrayed as a major victory for the CDU and CSU... but in reality this was a huge blow to his party and to the whole of the German establishment... this is a reflection of the crisis of the regime in Germany which has been brewing for some time."

  2. "The question that needs to be asked really is: why is no one giving an explanation of why things are going badly, why German capitalism is in crisis, and what is the alternative?"

  3. "This idea that you know we hear sometimes 'oh the rise of the right, society is moving right' — but with the slightest little squeak from the left they double their vote. If they'd done it before and in the next period continue down this line, they would go even further."

  4. "The only way to guarantee that the sovereignty of Ukraine makes any sense is through the rebuilding of the Soviet Union — the workers coming to power in Russia and Ukraine and rebuilding the bonds of friendship and brotherhood that existed in the past."

  5. "Our task is not to lose our heads and become pessimistic... what we need to do is build a real genuine revolutionary force based on the working class and the unity of the working class in order to face up to all of this — the crisis of capitalism, right-wing demagogues, anti-immigration moods, and above all the liberal establishment and the reactionary policies at home and abroad."