Could America Go Communist? — Against the Stream

Against The Stream · 2026-06-11

Core Argument

The central thesis is that the United States is undergoing a profound shift in working-class consciousness, driven by the objective failures of both major bourgeois parties to address the deepening crisis of capitalism. Trump's second term is not the arrival of fascism but the exposure of a declining imperial power whose bluff has been called — militarily in Iran, economically in the tariff war with China, and politically in the growing disillusionment of the working-class base that elected him.

The argument claims that Trump's popularity was never a sign of working-class embrace of the far right, but rather an expression of anti-establishment anger in the absence of a credible left alternative. As Trump is forced to govern in the interests of capital — pursuing war, presiding over inflation, breaking promises on living standards — that base is fragmenting. The vacuum this creates is being filled both by left-reformist figures (Mamani, Raman) and by far-right forces, but the deeper dynamic is a radicalisation that creates the conditions for a revolutionary communist project.

The episode's title question is answered affirmatively but conditionally: America could go communist, but only if revolutionaries build a party capable of connecting the advanced layers of radicalised youth with the wider working class, and avoid the traps of lesser-evilism and reformism that destroyed previous left formations.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis draws on classical Marxist political economy and the Marxist theory of the state, but deploys these concepts through conjunctural analysis rather than abstract deduction.

The tendency of the rate of profit to fall is present implicitly in the discussion of the post-war boom giving way to fifty years of wage compression. The episode describes a "long-term process of shifting of wealth from wages to profits" as the mechanism by which capital restored profitability after the crises of the 1970s — a clear reference to Marx's analysis of how capital attempts to counteract the falling rate of profit by intensifying exploitation.

The theory of Bonapartism is not named but is structurally present. Trump is analysed not as a fascist but as a bourgeois politician who temporarily captures working-class support through demagogy while being structurally incapable of delivering on his promises because he cannot "change the nature of capitalism." This is a classic Bonapartist pattern — a strongman who appears to stand above the parties but ultimately governs in the interests of the ruling class.

The critique of reformism and lesser-evilism is grounded in the historical experience of the Italian Communist Party (PCI) and Rifondazione Comunista. The argument draws on the Marxist tradition's understanding that reformist parties, when they enter bourgeois governments, become managers of austerity and thereby discredit the very idea of working-class politics. This is not presented as abstract theory but as a concrete lesson from the destruction of the strongest communist party in Western Europe.

The theory of combined and uneven development underpins the analysis of US decline. The episode situates Trump's tariffs not as the policy of a strong state but as the response of a declining hegemon that can no longer compete in an open world market — a phenomenon Marxists have analysed since Lenin's Imperialism.

Conjunctural Relevance

The episode is set at 500 days into Trump's second term (mid-2026) and is rich in specific conjunctural data:

Economic indicators: - Official inflation at 3.8% (May 2026), with wholesale inflation at 6% threatening further rises - 70% of Americans report tariffs have increased their costs - Over 100,000 manufacturing jobs lost in 2025 - 46% say cost of living is the worst they can remember - Fuel prices at $4.50–$5 per gallon - A significant layer of families cannot absorb an extra $1,000 annual expense

Political developments: - Trump's approval rating in steep decline, particularly among under-30 voters who voted for him (54-point net negative swing in first eight months) - The MAGA movement splintering: Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Megan Kelly breaking with Trump over Iran - Tucker Carlson publicly apologising for urging people to vote for Trump - The Democrats at an all-time low in popularity, second only to ICE in public disapproval - 55% of Americans say they would vote for a third party if one existed - Left-reformist candidates gaining traction: Mamani in New York, Raman in Los Angeles (DSA member projected to come second)

Class struggle indicators: - The Minneapolis general strike (largest in 80 years) - The March 4 No Kings protests with millions participating - The Kimberly Clark warehouse burning, "hugely popular" among a layer - 41% of 18–29 year olds viewing Luigi Mangione's actions as acceptable - 62% of young Americans holding a favourable view of socialism; 34% favourable view of communism

Geopolitical: - The Iran war as a strategic quagmire exposing US military weakness - China matching tariffs and increasing exports globally except to the US - Russia holding its position in Ukraine despite US attempts to disengage - The broader pattern of US relative decline visible even to bourgeois analysts

International parallels: - Britain: Starmer at 21% approval, Reform UK at 25–29%, Greens at 12–14% - Germany: Merz in steep decline, AfD rising to 28%, Die Linke at 11% (25% among 18–24 year olds) - Italy: Meloni in decline, left-reformist AVS rising to 7–10%, general strike over Gaza

Where the Argument Continues

The episode deliberately leaves open several threads that are developed elsewhere in the corpus:

The long-term decline of US imperialism is referenced but not elaborated. Earlier Against the Stream episodes on the structural crisis of American capitalism provide the foundation for the claim that Trump is "managing the final decline."

The critique of left-reformism is illustrated through the Italian example but the episode gestures towards the Corbyn, Syriza, and Podemos experiences as parallel cases of betrayal. These are developed in other episodes and in the broader RCI literature on the crisis of social democracy.

The theory of fascism is implicitly challenged — the episode argues that the "fascism" framing was always a fear-mongering tactic that obscured the real dynamic of a vacuum on the left. This is a recurring theme in Against the Stream episodes from the 2020 and 2024 election periods.

The positive project of building revolutionary organisation is stated but not developed in detail. The episode references the Revolutionary Communists of America's third national congress (650 attendees, active in 70+ cities) and the target of 5,000 members, but the strategic question of how to connect advanced layers with the mass of workers is left for future episodes and internal documents.

The Spectre of Communism podcast series on the history of the Italian Communist Party provides the deeper theoretical and historical treatment of the lesser-evil strategy that this episode summarises.

Connections

Within the RCI corpus: - The 2020 article on lesser-evilism and the Italian Communist Party (linked in the episode description) - Earlier Against the Stream episodes on the structural decline of US capitalism - Spectre of Communism episodes on the PCI, Rifondazione, and the crisis of social democracy - Episodes on the Minneapolis general strike and the March 4 protests

Broader Marxist texts: - Marx, Capital Volume 3 — on the tendency of the rate of profit to fall and counteracting tendencies - Lenin, Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism — on the relationship between monopoly capitalism and state power - Trotsky, The Struggle Against Fascism in Germany — on Bonapartism and the distinction between bourgeois democracy and fascism - Gramsci, Prison Notebooks — on hegemony, crisis of authority, and the Italian context (though the episode's analysis of the PCI is critical of Gramscian strategy)

Contemporary analysis: - The episode engages seriously with bourgeois sources (Foreign Policy magazine, opinion poll data, economic statistics) while subjecting them to Marxist critique — a methodological point worth noting.

Key Quotes

1. "Trump will show his limitations because he cannot change the nature of capitalism. He can't change the fact that profit is made by exploiting working people. He's a bourgeois himself and he will be exposed particularly in the eyes of that working-class constituency that voted for him."

2. "Voting for the lesser evil does not stop the greater evil. It merely prepares the ground to strengthen it at a later stage. They defeated Trump and brought Biden to power, and then Biden prepared the return of Trump."

3. "If you look at what's been happening to the working class in America, not just this last 10 years but the last 50 years, it's a long-term process of shifting of wealth from wages to profits. The capitalists can get their profits back up again after that long-term process, but at the expense of the working class."

4. "The reason he was able to tap into this is the lack of a clear left alternative that can talk to the working class from a socialist Marxist point of view, explaining to the working class what is really happening in the economy. Trump comes along and says it's the foreigners who are unfairly trading, so we need tariffs and we'll bring the jobs back. The jobs don't come back."

5. "It's like two armies preparing to enter battle. The army of the working class numerically and objectively speaking is much stronger. But an army also needs good leaders, correct tactics. It needs to know what it's fighting for. If you build it in time, the perspectives are enormously positive. If you don't, then we're looking at barbarism."