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Venezuela coup in progress Guaidó proclaims himself president

Marxist Theory · 2019-01-23

Core Argument

The article argues that the events of 23 January 2019 — Juan Guaidó's self-proclamation as "interim president" — represent a decisive escalation of an imperialist-backed coup d'état against the Venezuelan government. The central thesis is twofold: first, that the coup is being orchestrated by the Trump administration, its regional allies (Bolsonaro's Brazil, the Lima Group), and the OAS, using the Venezuelan opposition as a direct instrument; second, that the Maduro government's policy of class conciliation — making concessions to the bourgeoisie while the crisis deepens — has paralysed the revolutionary initiative of the masses and thereby opened the door for reaction. The article therefore rejects both the coup and the government's strategy, calling instead for a working-class response based on expropriation, worker control, and popular militias.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis is rooted in the Leninist theory of imperialism as the highest stage of capitalism, updated to account for the specific mechanisms of 21st-century intervention — economic sanctions, financial blockades, and diplomatic recognition games rather than direct military invasion. The article draws on the Marxist theory of the state as an instrument of class rule: Guaidó's claim to the presidency is not a constitutional dispute but a class offensive by the Venezuelan bourgeoisie, backed by US capital, to reverse the gains of the Bolivarian Revolution.

The argument also sits within the Trotskyist tradition of permanent revolution and the critique of class conciliation. The Maduro government is criticised not from the right but from the left: its error is not that it has been too radical but that it has sought to manage capitalism rather than break with it, thereby demobilising the working class and peasantry who are the only reliable bulwark against reaction. This places the article squarely in the tradition of Marxist analysis that sees the struggle against imperialism and the struggle for socialist revolution as inseparable.

Conjunctural Relevance

The article was published in January 2019, at the peak of the immediate coup attempt. The conjuncture was defined by several concrete factors:

  • The economic crisis: Hyperinflation, collapsing oil production, and severe shortages had devastated living standards, creating a fertile ground for opposition mobilisation.
  • US sanctions: The Trump administration had imposed escalating economic sanctions and financial blockades, strangling the Venezuelan economy and targeting the state oil company PDVSA.
  • Regional alignment: The Lima Group (including Brazil under newly elected Bolsonaro, Colombia, and others) had coordinated diplomatic recognition of Guaidó, while the OAS under Luis Almagro acted as a transmission belt for US policy.
  • The opposition's "transition plan": The article references the National Assembly's published plan for privatisation, mass public-sector dismissals, and pro-business restructuring — a concrete programme of capitalist restoration.

The article correctly identifies that the coup was not a spontaneous democratic uprising but a coordinated operation involving state and financial actors. The subsequent years — including the failure of the Guaidó initiative to actually seize state power, the persistence of sanctions, and the deepening of the humanitarian crisis — have borne out the analysis that the opposition lacked independent social weight and relied entirely on external pressure.

Where the Argument Continues

The article leaves several questions open that are developed elsewhere in the IDOM corpus:

  • The class character of Chavismo: The article criticises Maduro's conciliationism but does not fully theorise why the Bolivarian process degenerated from its early radical phase. This is taken up in later IDOM articles analysing the bureaucratic degeneration of the Venezuelan state and the role of the "Bolivarian bourgeoisie."
  • The strategy for workers' power: The call for militias, factory occupations, and expropriation is programmatic but not elaborated as a concrete transitional programme. The broader Marxist tradition — and subsequent IDOM pieces on Venezuela — develops the demand for a workers' and peasants' government as the alternative to both Maduro and Guaidó.
  • The international dimension: The article calls for protests at US and Canadian embassies but does not analyse the balance of forces globally — particularly the role of China, Russia, and other powers in countering or accommodating US intervention. Later IDOM analysis addresses the geopolitical triangulation.

Connections

  • Lucha de Clases (Venezuela): The article is published by the Venezuelan section of the International Marxist Tendency (now RCI). Their ongoing coverage of Venezuela provides the tactical and strategic follow-through.
  • Against the Stream episodes: Several episodes from the RCI's podcast have covered the Venezuelan crisis, including interviews with Venezuelan comrades and analysis of the sanctions regime.
  • Trotsky's The Permanent Revolution: The theoretical framework for understanding why a bourgeois-democratic revolution cannot be completed without breaking with capitalism altogether.
  • Lenin's Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism: The structural analysis of US intervention as a function of capitalist crisis and the search for spheres of influence.
  • Other IDOM articles on Venezuela: The corpus includes detailed analyses of the 2002 coup attempt, the economic crisis, and the degeneration of Chavismo, which together form a comprehensive Marxist account of the Venezuelan revolution and its contradictions.

Key Quotes

  1. "Lucha de Clases, the Venezuelan section of the International Marxist Tendency, has clearly indicated that we are against the policies of the Maduro government because class conciliation does nothing more than unload the burden of the crisis on the backs of working people, asphyxiates the revolutionary initiative of the masses, gives away conquests of the revolution and paves the way for the victory of reaction."

  2. "The coming to power of the reactionary opposition supported by imperialism would mean a disaster for the poor people and the workers from an economic, social, political and democratic point of view. We cannot fool ourselves with that."

  3. "The 'transition plan' drafted by the national assembly speaks openly of privatising all the nationalised companies, mass dismissals in the public sector and in general a clearly anti-worker and pro-business policy."

  4. "The only way to combat the reactionary coup is on the basis of the revolutionary energy of the working class and the poor peasantry. Militias must be set up in every neighbourhood, community and factory."

  5. "The task of combating the coup goes hand in hand with the resolution of the pressing needs of the working people, which can only be done by putting an end to the policy of pacts, negotiations and concessions to the bourgeoisie organising the coup."

  6. "Imperialism, which has been attacking the people of Venezuela through economic sanctions and financial blockades, has upped the ante and entered into a decisive phase of its coup plan."