US tightens the noose on Venezuela will the coup succeed

Marxist Theory · 2026-05-13

Core Argument¶

The article argues that the United States is executing a carefully calibrated, multi-stage coup against the Venezuelan government, moving from diplomatic isolation through economic strangulation toward potential military intervention. The central thesis is that this imperialist offensive will succeed unless the Maduro government abandons its reformist, conciliatory approach and adopts revolutionary measures: expropriating multinational property, arming a workers' and peasants' militia, and placing the economy under democratic popular control. The author claims that the outcome is not predetermined but depends on whether the Venezuelan leadership chooses to mobilise the revolutionary energy of the masses or continues down the "road to disaster" of negotiation and concession.

Theoretical Grounding¶

The analysis draws on the Leninist theory of imperialism as the highest stage of capitalism, treating the Venezuelan crisis not as a discrete geopolitical dispute but as a necessary expression of capital's drive to subordinate or destroy any state that threatens the free movement of multinational capital and the US dollar's dominance in global oil markets. The article explicitly invokes the Chilean precedent of 1970-73, using Allende's appointment of Pinochet as a warning against trusting the institutional loyalty of the armed forces, and the Cuban Revolution of 1959-62 as the positive model of how to defeat imperialist aggression.

The theoretical framework is grounded in the Marxist distinction between reform and revolution. The author treats Maduro's appeals for dialogue with the Trump administration and his reluctance to arrest Guaidó not as tactical errors but as the logical outcome of a political line that seeks accommodation with capital at home while hoping for protection from Russia and China abroad. This situates the article within the Trotskyist tradition's critique of Stalinist and nationalist "anti-imperialism" that fails to break with capitalist property relations, and within the broader Marxist analysis of Bonapartism — the argument that the Venezuelan armed forces' loyalty is purchased through economic concessions and corruption, making them a unreliable instrument for defending working-class interests.

Conjunctural Relevance¶

The article was written in January 2019, at the peak of the US-led diplomatic offensive against the Maduro government. The specific conjuncture it analyses includes:

Economic warfare: The US sanctions on PDVSA, seizing $7bn in assets and blocking $11bn in annual oil revenue, combined with the Bank of England's seizure of $1.2bn in Venezuelan gold reserves. The article notes that 80-90% of PDVSA's cash income came from US sales, making the sanctions potentially crippling.
Diplomatic encirclement: The rapid alignment of the European Union, the Lima Group (including Bolsonaro's Brazil), and the OAS behind Guaidó's self-proclamation. The article highlights the hypocrisy of Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez demanding elections in Venezuela while Spain's monarchy is unelected.
Military provocation: John Bolton's theatrical display of a notepad reading "5,000 troops to Colombia" at the sanctions press conference, alongside reports of US Southern Command visits to Colombia and paramilitary incursions across the border.
Internal balance of forces: The opposition's failure to mobilise working-class barrios, the armed forces' public loyalty to Maduro, and the absence of significant protests in poor areas despite hyperinflation and collapsing living standards.

The article's relevance to the current conjuncture lies in its analysis of a pattern that has since been repeated in Nicaragua, Bolivia (2020), and the broader US strategy of "maximum pressure" campaigns. The specific tactics — sanctions designed to "make the economy scream", recognition of alternative presidents, asset seizures, and the threat of military intervention — have become standard instruments of US imperialist policy.

Where the Argument Continues¶

The article leaves several questions open that are developed elsewhere in the IDOM corpus:

The role of Russia and China: The article notes their material interests in Venezuela but treats their support as conditional and unreliable. Later IDOM articles on Venezuela track the evolution of Russian and Chinese positions as the crisis deepened, including their role in debt renegotiations and oil-for-loan arrangements.
The internal dynamics of the Venezuelan armed forces: The article warns against assuming institutional loyalty but does not analyse the specific factional struggles within the FANB. Subsequent IDOM pieces examine the purges, the rise of the "Bolivarian" officer corps, and the corruption scandals that have eroded the military's cohesion.
The question of a negotiated transition: The article raises the possibility of the army brokering a "solution from within Venezuela." Later coverage tracks the Oslo and Barbados dialogues, the role of Norway as mediator, and the eventual breakdown of negotiations.
The response of the international left: The article calls for a solidarity movement but does not detail the splits within the international left over Venezuela — between those defending Maduro uncritically and those demanding revolutionary measures. This debate is taken up in IDOM articles on the "anti-imperialist" camp and in Against the Stream episodes.

Connections¶

Trotsky, The Revolution Betrayed: The analysis of a workers' state degenerated by bureaucratic corruption and concession to capital echoes Trotsky's critique of the Stalinist degeneration.
Maitan, The Theory of Permanent Revolution in Latin America: The article's insistence on the necessity of socialist measures to defend a bourgeois-democratic revolution against imperialism draws on the permanent revolution tradition.
IDOM, "Venezuela: The Revolution at a Crossroads" (2017): Earlier analysis of the 2017 opposition protests and the failure of the right to break into the barrios.
IDOM, "The Lessons of Chile" (2023): A retrospective on the Allende period that deepens the comparison with Venezuela.
Against the Stream, "Venezuela: Five Years After the Coup Attempt" (2024): An assessment of the long-term consequences of the 2019 offensive and the state of the Bolivarian process.
Lucha de Clases (Venezuelan Marxist Current): The article explicitly references the line being agitated by the Venezuelan section of the IMT, whose materials provide the on-the-ground analysis of working-class consciousness and organisation.

Key Quotes¶

"The sanctions are designed to cause maximum damage, 'to make the economy scream', as Nixon said when he ordered the CIA to prepare the overthrow of Allende in Chile."
"As long as the Maduro government guarantees them these positions they will be loyal. If they reach the conclusion that he is about to be removed they will queue up to jump ship."
"The only way to defeat it is by relying on the revolutionary people, striking blows against the ruling class and making a clear appeal to the workers and peasants across the continent and beyond to come to the aid of the Bolivarian revolution."
"Instead, Maduro seems to be following in war (and this is what we are talking about) the same failed policy he followed in peace: appeals for negotiations, concessions to the capitalists and a slow and constant undermining of the conquests of the revolution. This is the road to disaster."
"Russia, like any other power, has no permanent friends but permanent interests. Let us not forget that Moscow hedged its bets at the beginning of the Syrian crisis and only came out decisively in support of Assad when it was clear he was not going to be immediately overthrown."
"In order to mobilise the revolutionary energy of workers and peasants, a policy is needed that puts their needs first: repudiate the foreign debt, expropriate the food distribution chain, give the land to the peasants and arm them to defend it; and plan the economy democratically under workers and peasants' control to fulfill the needs of the people."