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The Kosovo Pogrom and the Balkan Powder-keg

Marxist Theory · 2026-05-13

Core Argument

The central thesis of this article is that the Kosovo pogrom of March 1998 is not an eruption of ancient ethnic hatreds but the logical product of the crisis of Stalinism and the reimposition of capitalism in the Balkans. Alan Woods argues that the break-up of Yugoslavia was driven by rival bureaucratic cliques in Belgrade, Zagreb and Ljubljana who deliberately fanned chauvinism to shore up their own positions. The catastrophe unfolding in Kosovo is therefore a direct consequence of the failure of both Stalinism and capitalism to solve the national question. The article insists that the only progressive solution is a socialist federation of the Balkan peoples, and that the so-called "right of self-determination" — mechanically invoked by sectarians — is in these conditions a recipe for endless war and ethnic slaughter.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis is rooted in the classical Marxist tradition on the national question, drawing explicitly on Lenin's formulation that the right of self-determination is not an absolute but is always subordinate to the interests of the proletariat and world revolution. Woods situates the Balkan crisis within the framework of the general crisis of capitalism, arguing that the post-1974 period of capitalist decline has created conditions more akin to the pre-1914 era than to the post-war boom. The article deploys the concept of Bonapartism implicitly in its treatment of Milosevic, who is presented as a figure balancing between the extreme chauvinism of Seselj and the pressures of Western imperialism. The analysis of Stalinism as inherently chauvinist — "nationalism and Stalinism are like siamese twins" — is a settled position of the Trotskyist tradition, tracing the degeneration of the Yugoslav federation to the bureaucratic and oppressive character of the Stalinist state. The article also draws on Trotsky's method of "foresight over astonishment," citing the tendency's earlier predictions to demonstrate the superiority of Marxist analysis over bourgeois commentary.

Conjunctural Relevance

The article was written in March 1998, at a specific conjuncture: the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) had established "free territory" in the Drenica region, Serb police had massacred at least 80 ethnic Albanians, and mass demonstrations of up to 300,000 had been met with police brutality. The Dayton Agreement of 1995 was unravelling, with Bosnia held in place only by 35,000 NATO troops and American money. The article identifies several concrete forces and dynamics:

  • Milosevic's dilemma: trapped between the need for Western sanctions relief and the impossibility of conceding Kosovo without being overthrown by the extreme chauvinist Seselj.
  • The KLA's turn to terrorism: presented as a symptom of desperation among educated youth facing mass unemployment — 10,000 university graduates in Kosovo could not find work.
  • The Macedonian tinderbox: the key to the entire Balkan situation, with its fragile ethnic balance, competing claims from Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece and Albania, and the risk of war between two NATO states (Greece and Turkey).
  • Russian manoeuvring: Moscow's courting of Macedonia, including promises to open faculties for the study of the Macedonian language, deliberately provoking Bulgaria.
  • US imperialism's contradictions: Washington's frustration with European allies, its reluctance to commit ground troops, and the emergence of isolationist sentiment in Congress.
  • The Albanian revolution of 1997: acted as a catalyst by flooding Kosovo with modern weapons from across the border.

The article's predictive power is demonstrated by its accurate forecast of the 1999 NATO bombing campaign and the subsequent escalation of the Kosovo conflict.

Where the Argument Continues

This article is part of a sustained body of analysis by the Marxist tendency on the Balkan question. The argument continues in several directions:

  • Earlier articles cited in the text: "Yugoslavia, A Statement" (June 1992), "From Serbia, democracy or counter-revolution" (January 1997), and "The Meaning of the Albanian Revolution" (March 1997) provide the theoretical and conjunctural foundation for the 1998 analysis.
  • Later developments: The article's warning that "the so-called Peace agreement is just a scrap of paper" is vindicated by the 1999 NATO bombing of Yugoslavia. Subsequent IDOM articles would analyse the bombing campaign, the establishment of the UN protectorate in Kosovo, and the eventual declaration of independence in 2008.
  • The broader theoretical framework: The article's treatment of the national question connects to the tendency's general position on self-determination, developed in other texts on the Basque Country, Catalonia, Scotland, and Palestine. The key principle — that the right of self-determination is subordinate to the class struggle and the fight for socialist federation — is elaborated in these parallel analyses.
  • Against the Stream episodes: The podcast has produced episodes on the Balkans, including discussions of the 1999 bombing, the 2008 financial crisis and its impact on the region, and the current conjuncture in Kosovo-Serbia relations.

Connections

This article should be read alongside:

  • Lenin, "The Right of Nations to Self-Determination" — the theoretical source for the article's position that self-determination is not an absolute right.
  • Trotsky, "The Balkan Wars" — Trotsky's reportage from the Balkan Wars of 1912-13 provides the historical precedent for Woods' method of concrete analysis.
  • Alan Woods, "The National Question" — a longer theoretical treatment of the question, situating the Balkan analysis within the broader Marxist tradition.
  • IDOM articles on the 1999 NATO bombing — the logical sequel to this piece, analysing the imperialist intervention that the article predicts.
  • IDOM articles on the 2008 Kosovo declaration of independence — testing the article's predictions against the actual outcome.
  • The tendency's analysis of Stalinism in Eastern Europe — providing the broader framework for understanding the degeneration of the Yugoslav federation.

Key Quotes

  1. "Nationalism and Stalinism are like siamese twins. Chauvinism—the very antithesis of Leninism—is implicit in the anti-Marxist 'theory' of 'socialism in one country'."

  2. "Lenin explained a thousand times that the right of self-determination was not an absolute right, but was always subordinate to the general interest of the proletariat and the world revolution. In the given conditions, so-called self-determination is a recipe for endless wars and ethnic slaughter in the Balkans."

  3. "The idea of a shooting war between Greece and Turkey may seem unthinkable. But so did the idea of war between Serbia and Croatia only a few years ago."

  4. "The ethnic slaughter carried out during the second world war (mainly against the Serbs, let us not forget) did not prevent Serbs and Croats from living together in harmony for decades after the War, when the nationalised planned economy was growing at ten percent a year."

  5. "The only way to prevent the further oppression of the people of Kosovo and to solve this question once and for all is through the revolutionary overthrow of Milosevic and his clique. But this can only be done by the Serbian working class."

  6. "Far from being 'utopian', the programme of the Socialist Federation of the Balkans, with full autonomy for all, is the only viable solution for the peoples of the Balkans."