Pakistan The ever growing power of China

Marxist Theory · 2026-05-13

Core Argument

The article argues that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is not a developmental lifeline for Pakistan but a mechanism for deepening imperialist exploitation under a new, crisis-ridden Chinese imperialism. While the Pakistani ruling class presents CPEC as a panacea for unemployment, poverty, and underdevelopment, the reality is that it saddles Pakistan with unsustainable debt, destroys domestic industry through Chinese competition, locks in exorbitant energy tariffs, and entrenches corruption. The central thesis is that Chinese capital, emerging in a period of global capitalist crisis rather than expansion, cannot play a progressive role comparable to earlier imperialisms — it will only intensify the misery of the masses and prepare the ground for a new inter-imperialist conflict in South Asia.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis is rooted in the classical Marxist tradition of imperialism, drawing on Lenin's characterisation of finance capital and inter-imperialist rivalry, and Marx's writings on British rule in India as a reference point for comparison. The article explicitly distinguishes Chinese imperialism from earlier forms: British capital in the 19th century, despite its brutality, had a progressive historical function in destroying pre-capitalist relations and introducing the capitalist mode of production. Chinese imperialism, by contrast, emerges from a bureaucratic counter-revolution — the dismantling of the planned economy — and operates in a period of global capitalist stagnation, not upswing. This means it cannot create new productive forces or a growing proletariat; instead, it destroys existing industry and throws society backwards.

The argument also deploys the Marxist critique of nationalism and the state. The Pakistani state is analysed not as a unified actor but as a site of internecine conflict between factions of the ruling class — civilian, military, intelligence agencies — each competing for a share of Chinese investment. This reflects a sophisticated understanding of the capitalist state as an arena of class and factional struggle, not a neutral instrument.

Conjunctural Relevance

The article was written in 2017, but its analysis remains acutely relevant to the current conjuncture. CPEC was then announced at $46 billion, later rising to $57 billion. Pakistan's external debt stood at $75 billion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 67.4 percent. The article warned that annual repayments of approximately $5.86 billion — equivalent to 2 percent of GDP — would cripple the economy. This prediction has been borne out: Pakistan's foreign exchange crisis in 2022-23, near-default, and renewed reliance on IMF bailouts occurred precisely as CPEC debt repayments came due.

Geopolitically, the article anticipated the intensification of US-China rivalry in the Indian Ocean, the strategic competition between Gwadar and India's Chabahar port in Iran, and China's growing influence over Pakistani state decisions — including the house arrest of Hafiz Saeed and China's use of its UN Security Council veto to block sanctions on Masood Azhar. The subsequent US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, the Taliban's return to power, and the deepening of China-Russia-Iran coordination have all validated the article's framing of a shifting regional balance of forces.

The article also foresaw that CPEC would accelerate deindustrialisation in Pakistan. Chinese textiles, steel, and manufactured goods — produced with massive overcapacity — have indeed flooded Pakistani markets, devastating local industry. The environmental consequences of coal-fired power plants, the displacement of Baloch fishing communities in Gwadar, and the repression of dissent in Gilgit-Baltistan have all materialised as predicted.

Where the Argument Continues

The article leaves several threads open. First, the internal dynamics of the Chinese economy — the crisis of overaccumulation, the falling rate of profit, and the contradictions of fictitious capital within China's state-capitalist system — are gestured at but not developed. These are explored in other IDOM articles on the Chinese economy, particularly those analysing the property bubble, local government debt, and the slowdown in manufacturing.

Second, the question of working-class resistance in Pakistan is raised but not elaborated. The article notes protests in Gilgit-Baltistan outside the control of established parties, and the potential for cross-border solidarity between Chinese and Pakistani workers, but does not provide a detailed account of strike waves or organisational developments. This connects to broader Marxist analyses of the labour movement in South Asia.

Third, the relationship between Chinese imperialism and the broader "One Belt One Road" project is only sketched. The article mentions the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Corridor and the Hambantota port in Sri Lanka, but a fuller treatment of the global strategy of Chinese capital — including its penetration of Africa and Latin America — is available in other IDOM articles and Against the Current episodes.

Connections

This article should be read alongside:

• Marx's "The British Rule in India" — the article explicitly invokes this as a comparison point for the progressive character of earlier imperialism versus the regressive character of Chinese imperialism in an era of capitalist decline.
• Lenin's "Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism" — the theoretical framework for analysing finance capital, inter-imperialist rivalry, and the export of capital.
• Trotsky's "The Permanent Revolution" — relevant for understanding the impossibility of bourgeois-democratic development in the periphery under conditions of imperialist domination.
• IDOM articles on the Chinese economy — particularly those analysing the crisis of overaccumulation, the property bubble, and the contradictions of state capitalism.
• IDOM articles on Pakistan's political economy — including analyses of the IMF debt trap, the energy crisis, and the Baloch insurgency.
• Against the Current episodes on South Asian geopolitics — for updates on the shifting balance of forces in Afghanistan, Iran, and the Indian Ocean.

Key Quotes

1. "Chinese Imperialism is emerging in a period when Capitalism is facing a severe crisis all over the globe rather than an upswing. The banks and other institutions it is building for domination are facing a severe crisis of Capitalism at their birth."

2. "If huge investments and infrastructural projects could have reduced poverty and misery under capitalism there should be no poor inside China."

3. "Rather than creating new jobs, CPEC will usher in the closure of thousands of industrial units which will not be able to compete with their Chinese rivals."

4. "The only progressive element in this whole project" is that "for the first time in the thousands of years of history of this region the working class in China and Pakistan will have contact with each other on a mass level."

5. "The Pakistani State is at a war with itself and different factions of the State continuously attack each other through their proxies and struggle to increase their share of the pie."

6. "A socialist revolution in Pakistan will have to fight not only against the ruling class of Pakistan, but also the imperialist powers of China, America and others."