Skip to content

Nigerian elections postponed due to imperialist meddling

Marxist Theory · 2026-05-13

Core Argument

The article argues that the February 2019 postponement of Nigeria's presidential and national assembly elections was not primarily a domestic political manoeuvre by either of the two main bourgeois parties, but rather the result of intensifying inter-imperialist rivalry — specifically a struggle between Western imperialism (led by the US, UK, and France) and Chinese imperialism for control over Africa's largest economy. The INEC's decision, presented as a logistical necessity, is analysed as a concession to Western pressure, reflecting a deeper geopolitical realignment in which the Buhari-led APC had been tilting toward China, provoking a Western-backed counter-move to install a more pliable client. The article situates this within a broader claim that Nigeria is approaching a pre-revolutionary situation, where the ruling class can no longer govern in the old ways and the working class is increasingly unwilling to accept existing conditions.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis draws on the Leninist theory of imperialism as the highest stage of capitalism, applying it concretely to the Nigerian conjuncture. The central theoretical move is to treat the Nigerian state not as a sovereign actor but as a comprador formation — a local ruling elite whose function is to manage the interests of foreign capital. The article extends this by recognising that inter-imperialist rivalry is not a relic of the early twentieth century but a live feature of the current period, with Chinese imperialism now competing directly with Western powers for spheres of influence. This places the analysis within the tradition of Marxist writing on neo-colonialism and dependency, but without the mechanical determinism that sometimes accompanies such frameworks. The argument that the Nigerian ruling elite remains "a slave" regardless of which imperialist master it serves is a clear application of the theory of permanent revolution — no genuine national liberation is possible under capitalism, even when sections of the bourgeoisie adopt anti-Western rhetoric. The concluding appeal to build a mass working-class party rooted in the trade unions reflects the classical Trotskyist position on the need for a revolutionary party as an alternative to both bourgeois parties and reformist leadership.

Conjunctural Relevance

The article was written in February 2019, at a specific conjuncture defined by several concrete developments:

  • The Buhari regime had accelerated economic ties with China, including a currency swap agreement allowing the Yuan to be used directly by the Central Bank of Nigeria and end users — a move the article treats as a strategic realignment.
  • Western imperialist powers had responded with high-profile visits: Macron (France) and May (UK) both travelled to Nigeria, but the article judges these visits as having "little impact."
  • Former president Obasanjo, identified as a key representative of Western imperialist interests, had publicly and aggressively backed the PDP candidate Atiku Abubakar.
  • The Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El Rufai, had made the widely reported threat that foreigners attempting to influence the election would be returned "in body bags" — an indicator of how far the intra-elite conflict had escalated.
  • The two main bourgeois parties had taken opposing positions on the Venezuela crisis, with the APC opposing the Western-backed coup against Maduro and the PDP using Venezuela as a warning to the APC.

The article's claim that Nigeria is approaching a "pre-revolutionary situation" is grounded in the Leninist formula that a revolutionary situation exists when the ruling class cannot govern in the old way and the oppressed classes will not live in the old way. This was not an abstract assertion but a conjunctural assessment tied to the deepening crisis of Nigerian capitalism, the decay of both bourgeois parties, and the growing radicalisation of the masses.

Where the Argument Continues

The article explicitly references a previous IDOM piece — Nigeria: beyond the 2019 general election – what stage are we passing through? — which provides the longer-term analysis of Nigeria's political trajectory. The argument about the pre-revolutionary situation in Nigeria is developed further in subsequent IDOM articles covering the #EndSARS protests of 2020, the growing strike wave, and the deepening economic crisis under Buhari's second term. The broader theoretical framework — inter-imperialist rivalry in Africa, the role of comprador bourgeoisies, and the necessity of building revolutionary working-class parties — is a recurring theme across the Marxist.com corpus, with parallel analyses of developments in South Africa, Ghana, and Kenya. The article's treatment of Chinese imperialism as a distinct imperialist power, rather than as a progressive anti-imperialist force, is a position the RCI has defended in numerous theoretical articles and Against the Stream episodes, distinguishing it from both Stalinist and left-nationalist positions.

Connections

  • Lenin, Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism — the theoretical foundation for understanding inter-imperialist rivalry as a structural feature of capitalism in its monopoly phase.
  • Trotsky, The Permanent Revolution — the theoretical basis for the claim that the Nigerian bourgeoisie cannot lead a genuine national liberation struggle, regardless of which imperialist camp it aligns with.
  • IDOM, Nigeria: beyond the 2019 general election – what stage are we passing through? — the companion piece that provides the longer-term analysis of Nigeria's political crisis.
  • IDOM articles on the #EndSARS protests (2020) — these develop the argument about the pre-revolutionary situation and the role of the working class and youth in challenging the Nigerian state.
  • IDOM analyses of Venezuela (2019) — the article's reference to the Venezuela crisis connects to a broader RCI analysis of imperialist intervention and the role of the "international community" in legitimising coups.

Key Quotes

  1. "There has been a systematic acceleration of moves by the ruling APC regime towards Chinese imperialism at the expense of the western imperialist powers. A few months ago, president Buhari led an entourage to China on a business trip. The western imperialists, realising that their interests in Africa's largest economy might be threatened, responded by making a direct visit to Nigeria."

  2. "Since last July, the Central Bank of Nigeria has offered the Yuan directly to end users and banks under a policy termed Currency Swap with Yuan. This policy seems to have been the last straw, and has seriously and negatively affected the relationship between the ruling APC and their Western imperialist masters."

  3. "It may take the form of a fight against imperialism by the 'patriotic' ruling elite. In reality, this will be a struggle of the slave trying to change his slave master's mind. Whether it be Chinese imperialism or the western powers, the position of the Nigerian ruling elite still remains that of a slave."

  4. "As we have stated in our previous article, Nigeria is fast approaching a pre-revolutionary situation. The inability of the ruling class to govern in the old ways coincides with the unwillingness of the working class to continue to accept all the previous exploitative measures."

  5. "The corrupt ruling elites will continue to live in opulence at the expense of the masses, and they will seek this or that foreign master who can guarantee their continued existence as local errand boys of imperialism."

  6. "The trade union leaders will either have to give expression to the seething anger of the workers or be replaced by real working-class fighters. A shift to the left is inevitable at some point, as the masses seek a way out of the present nightmare."