Marxism and the Struggle Against Imperialism Third World in Crisis

Marxist Theory · 2026-05-13

Core Argument

This article argues that the collapse of Stalinism and the intensification of imperialist exploitation after 1991 have not produced the stable "New World Order" promised by US imperialism, but instead have created the conditions for a new revolutionary wave across the colonial and semi-colonial world. The central thesis is that the theory of the permanent revolution — developed by Trotsky and confirmed by the October Revolution — remains the only adequate framework for understanding the revolutionary process in the Third World. The national bourgeoisie in these countries is incapable of carrying through even the bourgeois-democratic tasks of national unification, land reform, and genuine independence, because it is tied by a thousand threads to imperialism and the landed oligarchy. Only the working class, leading the poor peasants and urban masses, can solve these problems — and in doing so, it will be compelled to pass over to socialist measures. The article insists that the peculiar phenomenon of "proletarian bonapartism" (deformed workers' states established by peasant armies or military coups, as in China, Cuba, Vietnam, and later Ethiopia, Angola, and Afghanistan) was a historically necessary but distorted variant of the permanent revolution, made possible by the delay of revolution in the West and the existence of the Stalinist model. With the collapse of that model and the onset of a new world economic crisis, the article predicts that new revolutionary situations will arise — but this time, the working class is far stronger numerically and organisationally, and the possibility of a classical proletarian revolution on the model of October 1917 is once again on the agenda.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis is rooted in the classical Marxist tradition as developed by Marx, Engels, Lenin, and Trotsky, and explicitly positions itself against both Stalinist and reformist deviations. The key theoretical pillars are:

The theory of the permanent revolution. The article draws heavily on Trotsky's 1904 formulation and its confirmation in 1917. It argues that in the epoch of imperialism, the "national bourgeoisie" in backward countries cannot play a progressive role — a position Marx himself took toward the German bourgeoisie in 1848. The revolution must therefore be led by the proletariat, which carries through the bourgeois-democratic tasks and then, without pause, passes over to socialist tasks. The revolution is "permanent" in two senses: it passes from one stage to the next without interruption, and it cannot be confined to one country but must spread internationally.

The theory of combined and uneven development. This explains why a powerful working class can exist in a backward country like tsarist Russia or contemporary Indonesia, and why the most modern industries can coexist with semi-feudal agriculture. This unevenness creates the objective possibility for the proletariat to take power before the workers of the advanced countries.

The critique of the "two stages" theory. The article systematically attacks the Stalinist and Menshevik position that the bourgeois-democratic revolution must be led by the bourgeoisie, with the socialist revolution postponed to a distant future. This policy, it argues, led to catastrophic defeats in China (1925-27), Indonesia (1965-66), Sudan, Iraq, and elsewhere, where Communist Parties allied with "progressive" bourgeois or military figures who then liquidated them.

The theory of proletarian bonapartism. This is the article's most distinctive theoretical contribution. It argues that the Chinese Revolution of 1949, and later Cuba, Vietnam, Ethiopia, Angola, and Afghanistan, produced not healthy workers' states but "monstrously deformed" ones, where a peasant army or military caste abolished capitalism and established a bureaucratic collectivist regime in the image of Stalin's Russia. This was not foreseen by the classics of Marxism, but it can be explained by the complete impasse of these societies, the delay of revolution in the West, and the powerful example of Stalinism. The article insists that such regimes, while a step forward compared to capitalism and imperialism, require a political revolution to establish workers' democracy.

The law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall and the export of capital. The article uses Marx's analysis in Volume III of Capital to explain the dynamics of investment in Asia: the first capitalists to invest in low-wage economies obtain super-profits, but over-investment leads to overproduction, a fall in the mass of profit, and crisis. The Asian "miracle" was always a temporary phenomenon, and its collapse confirms the classical laws of capitalist development.

Conjunctural Relevance

The article was written in June 1998, in the immediate aftermath of the Asian financial crisis and the fall of Suharto in Indonesia. Its conjunctural analysis is remarkably specific and prescient:

The Asian crisis as confirmation of Marxist crisis theory. The article argues that the "tiger economies" were never a refutation of Marxism but a confirmation of it. The super-profits obtained by early investors attracted massive over-investment, producing overcapacity in cars, semiconductors, consumer electronics, and petrochemicals. The crisis that followed — currency collapses, banking system insolvency, mass unemployment — is a classical capitalist crisis of overproduction. The article notes that South Korea, the eighth-largest economy in the world, saw a general strike in December 1996-January 1997, and that the rank and file of the KCTU union confederation rejected a tripartite agreement with the IMF and the government that would have allowed mass layoffs.

Indonesia as the new revolutionary epicentre. The article devotes extensive analysis to Indonesia, arguing that the fall of Suharto in May 1998 is the beginning of a revolutionary process, not its end. It notes that the economy shrank by 8.5% in the first quarter of 1998, the rupiah lost 80% of its value, inflation was expected to reach 80%, and the banking system was "bust." The article analyses the role of the PRD (People's Democratic Party) and criticises its leaders for appealing to bourgeois opposition figures like Megawati Sukarnoputri and Amien Rais to take power, rather than building independent workers' and peasants' councils. It draws a direct parallel with the February Revolution in Russia, where the Bolsheviks initially made the same mistake of supporting the Provisional Government before Lenin corrected the line in April 1917.

China on the eve of revolution. The article argues that China is facing a revolutionary crisis. It cites reports of mass unrest in Heilongjiang province in November-December 1997, where 105,000 workers participated in strikes and riots in four cities, with slogans including "All power and property belong to the people." It notes that 150 million Chinese workers are already unemployed, that the slowdown in Asia is hitting Chinese exports, and that a devaluation of the renminbi is likely. It predicts that a new revolutionary movement in China will not be isolated as Tiananmen was in 1989, because the workers are now far stronger and the bureaucracy has lost its margin of support.

The crisis of the African state. The article analyses the collapse of state structures in Somalia, Sierra Leone, and Afghanistan, and the inter-imperialist rivalry between France and the US in Central Africa (the wars in Congo-Brazzaville, the former Zaire, and the Great Lakes region). It notes that eight of the ten most indebted countries have suffered civil war since 1990, and that the Rwandan genocide was preceded by a steep fall in coffee prices that ruined Hutu peasants.

The Middle East and the class struggle in Israel. The article argues that the only solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict is a class-based appeal uniting Jewish and Arab workers. It cites the December 1997 general strike in Israel, in which 700,000 workers participated, and notes that Histadrut members forced their leaders to call the strike. It argues that the Intifada was a partial success precisely because it was a mass movement, not a guerrilla campaign, and that the key to victory is winning Jewish workers and soldiers to a class programme.

Nigeria after Abacha. The article was written just after the death of General Sani Abacha in June 1998. It predicts that the Nigerian bourgeoisie and imperialism will move to install a "democratic" government to head off revolution, but that the Nigerian working class — one of the most powerful in Africa — will not be satisfied with cosmetic changes. It insists on a policy of complete class independence, no support for bourgeois "democrats" like Abiola, and the building of committees of action with transitional demands.

South Africa. The article analyses the betrayal of the ANC leadership, which has presided over the enrichment of a tiny black elite while the majority of the black population remains in poverty. It notes that South Africa has the second-widest gap between rich and poor after Brazil, that the poorest 40% of the black population has seen its share of national income shrink by 48%, and that the ANC's GEAR plan is a programme of finance capital. It predicts that the growing frustration of the black working class will lead to splits in the ANC, COSATU, and the SACP.

Where the Argument Continues

This article is a comprehensive statement of the tendency's analysis of the colonial revolution, but it opens several lines of argument that are developed elsewhere in the corpus:

The theory of proletarian bonapartism is developed at greater length in Ted Grant's The Unbroken Thread and in the tendency's earlier writings on the Chinese Revolution, particularly the 1949 "Reply to David James" quoted in the article. The question of whether new regimes of proletarian bonapartism are possible in the current period — and whether Russia itself could revert to such a regime — is left open and is taken up in later IDOM articles on Russia and the former Soviet Union.

The analysis of the Asian crisis is continued in subsequent IDOM articles on the Japanese recession, the Chinese slowdown, and the world economic outlook. The prediction that the Asian crisis would deepen and spread to Japan and then to the world economy is a recurring theme.

The Indonesian revolution is followed in detail in subsequent IDOM articles and Against the Current episodes, particularly the question of whether the PRD would develop into a genuine Leninist party or repeat the mistakes of the 1965 Indonesian Communist Party.

The question of the Constituent Assembly as a transitional demand in colonial and semi-colonial countries is developed in the tendency's writings on Nigeria, Pakistan, and the Middle East, and in the broader analysis of the relationship between democratic and socialist tasks.

The critique of guerrillaism is developed in earlier IDOM articles on Latin America and in the tendency's polemics against the various "Trotskyist" groups that advocated guerrilla warfare in the 1960s and 1970s.

Connections

This article should be read alongside:

Trotsky, The Permanent Revolution and Results and Prospects. The theoretical foundation for the entire analysis.

Lenin, Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism. The analysis of the export of capital and the division of the world is presupposed throughout.

Marx, The Bourgeoisie and the Counter-Revolution (1848) and the Address to the Central Committee of the Communist League (1850). The article quotes both extensively to establish the classical Marxist position on the bourgeoisie's counter-revolutionary role.

Ted Grant, The Unbroken Thread. The collection of the tendency's writings on the colonial revolution, including the 1949 analysis of China.

Alan Woods, The History of the Bolshevik Party and Reformism or Revolution. For the broader historical and theoretical context.

IDOM articles on specific countries: The articles on Nigeria (1998), Pakistan (1998), South Africa (1992-98), and the Middle East (1997-98) develop the analysis in greater detail.

The tendency's polemics against the "two stages" theory: The articles on the Sudanese and Iraqi Communist Parties, and on the Indonesian Communist Party's 1965 defeat, are essential companion pieces.

Key Quotes

1. "The theory of the permanent revolution was the most complete answer to the reformist and class collaborationist position of the right wing of the Russian workers' movement, the Mensheviks. The two stage theory was developed by the Mensheviks as their perspective for the Russian revolution. It basically states that, since the tasks of the revolution are those of the national democratic bourgeois revolution, the leadership of the revolution must be taken by the national democratic bourgeoisie."

2. "The phenomenon of proletarian bonapartism bears a similar relation to the theory of permanent revolution as do the processes that took place in Germany and Japan to the classical norm of the bourgeois-democratic revolution, that is as aberrations that arose from a specific historical concatenation of circumstances. This phenomenon can only be understood on the basis of the complete impasse of these societies and the delay of the revolution in the West."

3. "The classical laws of capitalism apply in this case as in all others. Two or three years ago the bourgeois were euphoric about SE Asia and China. But now they are facing massive over capacity, or, in other words, over-production. What has happened in the countries of SE Asia — and that was easily predictable from a Marxist point of view — is that now they are entering a normal capitalist situation. They face massive over-capacity in all sectors of production: cars, semiconductors, consumer electronics, micro-chips and chemical processing. This is a classical capitalist model as described by Marx."

4. "The huge amounts of investment have produced a vast glut of commodities which cannot be sold. The rapid expansion of capitalist production in Asia (the only area where such spectacular results were achieved) have come into collision with the limited purchasing power of the masses. Incidentally, low wages, in and of themselves are not necessarily a source of profits. There can be other factors which off-set the lower wages, for example low productivity."

5. "Our tactic: absolute lack of confidence; no support to the new government; suspect Kerensky especially; arming of the proletariat the sole guarantee; immediate elections to the Petrograd Duma; no rapprochement with other parties." (Lenin's telegram to the Bolsheviks in Petrograd, February 1917, quoted as the model for the Indonesian revolutionaries.)

6. "The workers and peasants have passed through the school of capitalism, and have drawn the necessary conclusions