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Imperialism today and the character of Russia and China

Marxist Theory · 2026-05-13

Core Argument

The central thesis is that Russia and China today must be characterised as imperialist states, despite their historical origins as workers' states and their current economic backwardness relative to the United States. The article argues that the Marxist method — dialectical and materialist, attentive to change and the transformation of things into their opposites — compels this conclusion. It rejects the schematic division of the world into a fixed handful of imperialist powers (the US, Europe, Japan) and a mass of dependent nations, insisting that the law of uneven development produces new imperialist powers over time. China is presented as a fully-fledged imperialist power exhibiting all of Lenin's criteria: monopoly capitalism, the export of capital, overaccumulation, and aggressive expansion for markets and raw materials. Russia is characterised as a weaker, more limited imperialist power — closer to Tsarist-style imperialism — driven primarily by strategic and military considerations rather than economic expansion. The article's political claim is that Marxists in both countries must oppose their own ruling classes, not wave the anti-imperialist flag in a way that would align them with the national bourgeoisie.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis is grounded in Lenin's Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism, particularly its five defining features: monopoly, finance capital, export of capital, international monopolist associations, and territorial division. The article draws heavily on Lenin's dialectical method — his insistence that definitions have "conditional and relative value" and cannot "embrace all the concatenations of a phenomenon in its full development." It uses this to argue that Tsarist Russia, despite being economically backward and dependent on foreign capital, was correctly classified by Lenin as an imperialist power. This precedent is extended to contemporary Russia and China.

The article also draws on Trotsky's theory of permanent revolution, but in a specific way: it argues that the theory does not rule out capitalist development in backward countries, but rather explains the specific conditions under which that development occurs — distorted, Bonapartist, and ultimately leading to capitalist restoration. The theory is used to explain how the Chinese and Russian revolutions, though deformed, created the industrial base and working class that now underpin capitalist imperialism in those countries. Trotsky's writings on the Balkan Wars (1912-13) are deployed to show that economically backward, semi-feudal nations can simultaneously be oppressed by great powers and act as regional imperialists — a direct parallel to the article's argument about Russia and China.

Conjunctural Relevance

The article was written in 2016, but republished in March 2022 in direct response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Its conjunctural relevance is therefore twofold: it speaks to the immediate crisis of the Ukraine war, and to the longer-term restructuring of global capitalism.

On Ukraine, the article argues that Russia's intervention is not about markets or economic gain — "there is little prospect of economic gain from taking over the ruined Donbass" — but about strategic and military considerations: preventing NATO from absorbing Crimea and Sevastopol, reasserting control over former Soviet spheres of influence. It characterises Putin's regime as Bonapartist, balancing between classes and using nationalist rhetoric and foreign adventures to maintain popularity. The article insists that this is a conflict between two imperialist powers — Russia and the US/NATO — with no progressive content on either side.

On the longer conjuncture, the article identifies China as the more dynamic and dangerous imperialist rival to the US. It marshals extensive data: China's overcapacity in steel (803 million tonnes in 2015, more than the rest of the world combined), its dominance of global container ports (seven of the top ten), its status as the largest foreign holder of US Treasury securities ($1.224 trillion), and its massive capital exports through the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the "One Belt, One Road" initiative. The article argues that China's economic slowdown — growth "has reached its limit" — will exacerbate global contradictions, potentially dragging the world into depression.

Where the Argument Continues

The article is a 2016 internal discussion document republished in 2022. It leaves several questions open:

  1. The precise character of the Ukraine war: The article was written before the full-scale invasion. It argues that Russia's 2014 intervention in Crimea and Donbass was imperialist but limited. The 2022 escalation would require updating this analysis — does it represent a qualitative shift in Russian imperialism, or a continuation of the same logic?

  2. The trajectory of Chinese capitalism: The article notes that China's growth is slowing and that "it is highly unlikely that on a capitalist basis US imperialism could be supplanted by China." But it does not develop a detailed perspective on how the US-China rivalry will unfold — whether through trade war, military confrontation, or a new division of spheres.

  3. The relationship between Russia and China: The article notes their convergence against the US — Russia joining the AIIB, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation — but does not fully theorise whether this constitutes a stable bloc or a temporary tactical alignment.

These questions are addressed in subsequent IDOM articles on the Ukraine war, US-China tensions, and the crisis of global capitalism. The article also connects to broader Marxist debates on the nature of the BRICS, the theory of state capitalism, and the legacy of the Russian and Chinese revolutions.

Connections

  • Lenin, Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism: The foundational text, from which the article derives its criteria and method.
  • Trotsky, The Balkan Wars (1912-13): Used to establish the precedent of backward nations acting as regional imperialists.
  • Trotsky, The Revolution Betrayed: Quoted on the consequences of bureaucratic degeneration and the prediction that its fall would mean "a return to capitalist relations with a catastrophic decline of industry and culture."
  • Trotsky, The Tanaka Memorial: On Japanese imperialism as a backward but ferocious imperialist power.
  • IDOM articles on Ukraine (2022 onwards): These update the analysis for the full-scale war.
  • IDOM articles on China's economic crisis and US-China rivalry: These develop the perspective on the limits of Chinese capitalism.
  • The Marxist debate on state capitalism: The article implicitly engages with theories of state capitalism in Russia and China, though it does not use the term explicitly.

Key Quotes

  1. "Lenin himself was well aware of the limitations of definitions. He writes: 'If it were necessary to give the briefest possible definition of imperialism we should have to say that imperialism is the monopoly stage of capitalism.' But then he adds: 'without forgetting the conditional and relative value of all definitions in general, which can never embrace all the concatenations of a phenomenon in its full development.'"

  2. "There is no law that says that a poor, oppressed nation cannot become a vicious, predatory state once it is in a position to act like one. On the contrary, dialectics teaches us that things can turn into their opposite."

  3. "The Russian regime is a regime of bourgeois Bonapartism. A Bonapartist regime is a regime of crisis in which the contradictions of society cannot be resolved within the 'normal' functioning of bourgeois democracy. The state tends to rise above society in the person of a 'strong man' who claims to stand above classes and parties, representing 'the Nation.'"

  4. "Every American politician has expressed concern at the extent of the debts that the US government owes to Chinese lenders. This stands the relation between imperialism and colonies on its head. Since when did a poor dependent nation underwrite the debts of the mightiest imperialist power on earth?"

  5. "Our slogan in Russia (and in China) is not 'Down with imperialism' — a slogan that in these cases is devoid of any real content — but 'Down with the oligarchy! All power to the working class!'"

  6. "Lenin's theory that imperialism is driven by capitalist surpluses seems to hold true, oddly, in one of the last (ostensibly) Leninist countries in the world. It is no coincidence that the Silk Road strategy coincides with the aftermath of an investment boom that has left vast overcapacity and a need to find new markets abroad."