From humanitarian aid to a nationwide blackout what next for Trumps coup in Vene

Marxist Theory · 2019-02-23

Core Argument

The article argues that the US-backed coup attempt in Venezuela suffered a decisive strategic defeat on 23 February 2019, when the "humanitarian aid" provocation failed to trigger either mass defections from the armed forces or a popular uprising. The nationwide blackout of 7 March is analysed not as an accidental infrastructure failure but as a deliberate escalation by US imperialism — a cyberattack timed to rescue a stalled coup, manufactured to create the conditions for military intervention. The central claim is that Washington's strategy has shifted from relying on a quick political defection within the Venezuelan state to a longer-term campaign of economic strangulation, sabotage, and the potential creation of a proxy armed force, precisely because its initial calculations proved catastrophically wrong.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis is grounded in the Leninist theory of imperialism as the highest stage of capitalism, applied concretely to the mechanics of regime change in the twenty-first century. It draws on the Marxist understanding of the state as an instrument of class rule, rejecting any notion that the Venezuelan crisis is a simple "democracy versus dictatorship" conflict. Instead, it frames the struggle as an imperialist war against a government that, despite its bureaucratic degeneration, still represents a barrier to the full recolonisation of Venezuela's oil wealth.

The article deploys a materialist analysis of the balance of forces — examining the actual class composition of the opposition (pro-imperialist, demoralised, reliant on foreign intervention), the contradictory position of the armed forces (under pressure but not yet broken), and the objective interests of regional bourgeois states like Brazil (which oppose military intervention not out of principle but out of fear of spillover effects). This is consistent with Trotsky's method of analysing the concrete situation in its concrete specificity, rather than applying abstract formulas about "Bonapartism" or "dual power."

The piece also implicitly critiques the reformist position that the crisis can be resolved through dialogue or electoral mechanisms. It argues that only revolutionary measures — arming the militias, workers' control, expropriation of the oligarchy — can defeat the coup, situating itself within the revolutionary Marxist tradition that rejects both Stalinist accommodation and liberal "defence of democracy" frameworks.

Conjunctural Relevance

The article was written at a specific inflection point in the Venezuelan crisis. The "humanitarian aid" provocation of 23 February 2019 had been the most ambitious attempt yet to break the stalemate, and its failure was palpable. The Lima Group meeting in Bogotá on 25 February revealed deep divisions among regional bourgeois governments — Chile, Brazil, and Paraguay publicly ruled out military intervention. The Wall Street Journal reported that Piñera openly berated Guaidó for overpromising and underdelivering.

The blackout itself hit 18 of 24 states, crippling Caracas's metro, water supply, and telecommunications. The article notes the precise timing: days before the EU International Contact Group was due to arrive to investigate the "humanitarian crisis." It also highlights the role of specific US officials — Marco Rubio, John Bolton, Elliot Abrams — and their documented willingness to lie (Rubio falsely claiming 80 babies had died in a Maracaibo hospital; Bolton blaming Maduro for burning aid trucks that opposition supporters had set alight).

The broader geopolitical context includes the US's inability to secure UN Security Council authorisation, the split within Bolsonaro's own cabinet between the far-right president and the Brazilian generals, and the looming 2020 US election, which the article argues creates urgency for a resolution. The piece also references the Stuxnet precedent to establish the technical plausibility of a cyberattack on Venezuela's power grid.

Where the Argument Continues

The article leaves several questions open. It does not resolve the debate within the Venezuelan left about the character of the Maduro government — whether it remains a bourgeois-democratic regime with anti-imperialist features or has become a bureaucratic obstacle to the revolution. This question is taken up in other IDOM articles, particularly those analysing the role of the bureaucracy in undermining workers' control in the electricity sector.

The argument about the armed forces' loyalty is left deliberately provisional — "it is impossible to say what is actually happening in the military barracks." Subsequent IDOM coverage tracks the defections, purges, and counter-purges within the officer corps, as well as the development of the "El Picure" plan for a US-backed proxy force in Colombia.

The article's call for revolutionary measures — arming militias, workers' control, expropriation — is not developed into a concrete programme. This is addressed in broader Marxist texts on the Venezuelan revolution, particularly the writings of Jorge Martin and Alan Woods on the need for a revolutionary party to lead the struggle, and in Against the Stream episodes that debate the tactical orientation of the revolutionary left inside Venezuela.

Connections

This article sits within a dense corpus of Marxist analysis on Venezuela. It should be read alongside:

• Trotsky's "The Permanent Revolution" — for the theoretical framework on how anti-imperialist struggles can develop into socialist revolutions, and how they are betrayed by bourgeois-nationalist leaderships.
• Alan Woods, "The Venezuelan Revolution: A Marxist Perspective" — the most comprehensive IDOM text on the historical trajectory of Chavismo.
• Jorge Martin's earlier IDOM articles on the 2017 opposition protests and the 2018 election — which track the shifting balance of forces and the degeneration of the Bolivarian process.
• IDOM's coverage of the 2019-2020 period — including analyses of the "El Picure" paramilitary plan, the role of the Colombian state, and the impact of US sanctions.
• Against the Stream episodes from early 2019 — which debated the tactical line of the RCI in Venezuela, including the question of whether to call for a vote for Maduro or for a revolutionary workers' alternative.

The article also connects to broader Marxist literature on imperialism and sabotage, including analyses of the Stuxnet attack on Iran and the use of economic sanctions as a weapon of war.

Key Quotes

1. "The idea was never to actually deliver 'humanitarian aid' into the country, but rather to create a 'people's power' moment, where large crowds of opposition supporters on both sides of the border defied the Venezuelan armed forces, which, when faced with a large crowd of peaceful demonstrators, would then switch sides and join Trump's puppet Juan Guaidó."

2. "The campaign is very revealing as to the character of the opposition (pro-imperialist and traitors to their own country), but also as to the morale of their ranks (they do not think they are the agents of 'change' but rather invest all their hopes in Trump)."

3. "The hawks in Trump's administration — Bolton, Pompeo and Abrams — made a series of fatal miscalculations. First, they assumed Maduro had no support whatsoever, underestimating the strength of anti-imperialist feeling in the face of a brazen US coup attempt... Second, they thought that the opposition was able to mobilise large numbers of people who are prepared to go all the way in an open clash with the government."

4. "The country's main electricity generator, the Simon Bolivar Hydroelectric plant, known as El Guri Dam, had crashed... The government's claim is that there was a cyberattack against the system that controls the El Guri turbines and regulates power generation and supply... For those tempted to dismiss these accusations as a 'conspiracy theory', let us look at the following facts."

5. "As we have argued before, this ongoing imperialist coup attempt can only be fought back with revolutionary measures, striking blows against the coup plotters at home and their puppet masters abroad. That means arresting them and putting them on trial. Expropriating the coup-plotting oligarchy as well as the multinationals. Above all, the revolutionary organisation of the people from below needs to be strengthened by arming and developing the militias in every working-class neighbourhood."

6. "The lesson is: 'question everything Washington and the mass media tell you about a government they want to overthrow.'"