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Brazil confronting American aggression without relying on Chinese imperialism

Marxist Theory · 2025-08-01

Core Argument

The central thesis is that Trump's 50 percent tariffs on Brazil represent not a capricious act but a calculated imperialist offensive aimed at undermining China's growing penetration of the Brazilian economy. The article argues that Brazil's current "room for manoeuvre" — its ability to resist American pressure — is a product of the inter-imperialist rivalry between the US and China, not of any genuine national independence. The Lula government's response of deepening ties with China merely substitutes one imperialist master for another. The working class cannot align with either imperialism; only a socialist revolution led by an independent proletariat can achieve genuine national sovereignty.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis is firmly rooted in Lenin's theory of imperialism, particularly the concept of capital export as a defining feature of the imperialist stage. The article draws on Lenin's observation that when capital accumulation within the domestic market encounters limits imposed by the restricted consumption capacity of the masses, capital must seek more profitable outlets abroad. This is applied directly to China's current position: having achieved imperialist status, Chinese capital faces the contradiction of overaccumulation and must export to markets like Brazil.

The analysis also deploys the Marxist understanding of the state as an instrument of class rule, showing how the Brazilian state — under both PT and right-wing governments — has consistently prioritised debt repayment (almost 50 percent of the federal budget) and subordination to foreign capital. The concept of the "New Republic" as a bourgeois democratic framework that maintained the economic relations established under the dictatorship is used to periodise Brazilian political development since 1988.

The article situates itself within the Trotskyist tradition's insistence on class independence from all bourgeois nationalisms, rejecting both the "national-developmentalist" illusions of the left and the open subservience of the right. It explicitly rejects the notion of a "multipolar world" as progressive, arguing instead that it merely multiplies the poles of exploitation.

Conjunctural Relevance

The article was published in September 2025 and addresses a rapidly unfolding conjuncture:

  • Trade war escalation: Trump imposed 50 percent tariffs on Brazilian exports from 1 August 2025, the highest rate imposed on any country except China. This followed earlier 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminium in March 2025.

  • Direct political interference: Trump's letter to Lula explicitly demanded the release of Jair Bolsonaro, calling his trial an "international disgrace" — a direct intervention in Brazilian judicial sovereignty.

  • China's response: Beijing declared "unrestricted support" for Brazil, expanded commodity purchases, opened new RMB credit lines, and accredited 183 Brazilian coffee producers for the Chinese market. Chinese automaker GWM announced a R$10 billion factory investment in São Paulo state.

  • Brazil's strategic pivot: The May 2025 Lula-Xi summit produced 20 bilateral agreements including the Bioceanic Railway Project connecting Brazil's Atlantic coast to Peru's Pacific coast — a direct challenge to US control of the Panama Canal.

  • Domestic political crisis: Bolsonaro is under house arrest and ineligible for office; Senator Eduardo Bolsonaro fled to the US to coordinate counterattacks. The Brazilian bourgeoisie supports institutions like the STF not out of democratic principle but because legal predictability serves business interests.

  • Labour conditions under Chinese capital: The article cites the December 2024 rescue of 163 Chinese workers from "slave-like conditions" at BYD's Camaçari construction site, where workers were housed without mattresses, had passports confiscated, and worked exhausting hours under armed surveillance.

Where the Argument Continues

The article explicitly references earlier RCI analyses of the global economic crisis, the falling rate of profit, and Trump's electoral victory as foundational context. The argument about Chinese imperialism's character is developed further in RCI materials on the New Silk Road and China's role in Africa and Asia. The analysis of Brazil's Fiscal Framework and the politics of debt repayment connects to broader Marxist critiques of austerity and the "fiscal framework" as a mechanism of imperialist subordination.

The article's treatment of the 996 work regime (9am-9pm, six days per week) as a feature of Chinese-style capitalism that is now being exported to Brazil points toward ongoing RCI research on labour conditions under Chinese capital. The discussion of the Bioceanic Railway and the dispute over the Panama Canal connects to broader analyses of inter-imperialist rivalry over global trade routes.

Connections

  • Lenin, Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism — The theoretical foundation for understanding capital export and inter-imperialist rivalry.

  • Trotsky, The Permanent Revolution — The framework for understanding why national bourgeoisies cannot complete democratic tasks and why only the proletariat can achieve genuine national sovereignty.

  • RCI documents on the global economic crisis — Referenced as providing the broader context of falling profit rates driving imperialist aggression.

  • Against the Stream episodes on US-China rivalry — Likely develop the geopolitical analysis of the New Silk Road and the Panama Canal dispute.

  • Marxist analyses of the Brazilian "New Republic" — The periodisation from 1988 Constitution to the present, including the 2016 impeachment of Dilma Rousseff as a "palace coup."

Key Quotes

  1. "The main objective of Trump's tariffs, however, is to push Brazil into a crisis that will force the Lula government to negotiate favourable terms for the US at the expense of China. In other words, they sought to undermine China's position in relation to Brazil and restrict its ability to invest and exploit the Brazilian market."

  2. "For the Brazilian proletariat, replacing American domination with Chinese domination is not emancipation, but merely a change of masters."

  3. "The idea of a 'multipolar world' sounds seductive, but it only means the multiplication of imperialist 'poles' that exploit the wealth produced by workers."

  4. "The BYD case in Camaçari illustrates some characteristics of Chinese imperialism. Other imperialisms traditionally employ the workforce of the country where they settle and adapt to regional norms. Chinese capitalists do not just export their capital. Sometimes they also export managers, supervisory staff, and technical teams."

  5. "No sector of the Brazilian bourgeoisie, whether allied with American imperialism or associated with Chinese imperialism, is capable of defending national sovereignty. The proletariat can expect no benefit from American imperialism, Chinese imperialism, or its own cowardly and treacherous bourgeoisie."

  6. "Only the working class, organised in its own party, armed with the theory of communism and willing to break with the bourgeois order, can lead the country to true sovereignty through a socialist revolution."