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World perspectives 2018 a year of capitalist crisis

Marxist Perspectives · 2018-09-03

Core Argument

The central thesis is that the 2008 financial crash was not a normal cyclical crisis but the expression of an organic crisis of capitalism — a systemic impasse from which the system cannot genuinely recover. Ten years on, the "recovery" is the weakest in history, built on unprecedented debt, ultra-loose monetary policy, and asset bubbles rather than productive investment. Because politics is "concentrated economics" (Lenin), this economic stagnation has destroyed the political and social equilibrium across the globe, producing a cascade of convulsions: the rise of Trump, Brexit, the Corbyn phenomenon, the crisis of the EU, the fragmentation of traditional parties, and the molecular accumulation of revolutionary discontent beneath the surface. The article insists that the subjective factor — revolutionary leadership — remains the decisive missing element, but that the objective conditions for a worldwide revolutionary process are now present in every country without exception.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis is rooted in the classical Marxist theory of crisis, drawing centrally on Marx's explanation in Capital of how credit expansion temporarily suspends but ultimately intensifies the contradictions of overproduction and the tendency of the rate of profit to fall. The article deploys this not as a mechanical formula but as a living framework: the unprecedented levels of global debt ($217tn, 327% of GDP) and the stagnation of labour productivity growth (falling to zero between 2012-2014) are presented as empirical confirmations of Marx's analysis.

The argument sits firmly within the Trotskyist tradition, particularly in its insistence on the permanent revolution as a global process, its analysis of the Stalinist degeneration of the Soviet Union and its aftermath, and its emphasis on the "molecular process of revolution" — Trotsky's concept from the History of the Russian Revolution that mass consciousness changes not gradually but through the explosive accumulation of subterranean discontent. The article also draws on Lenin's method of analysing "conjunctures" — the concrete balance of forces at a given moment — and his theory of the split in the ruling class as a precondition for revolutionary situations.

The theoretical polemic is directed against two poles: reformism (which the article argues is bankrupt because it cannot deliver reforms under conditions of capitalist crisis) and sectarianism (criticised in the French context for splitting the left vote). The tradition invoked is that of revolutionary Marxism as opposed to both social democracy and Stalinism.

Conjunctural Relevance

The article was written in September 2018, a decade after the crash, and its predictions have been substantially borne out by subsequent events. The analysis of Trump as a symptom of a crisis of the US political regime — an elected president in open confrontation with the intelligence services and the media — proved prescient, anticipating the deepening institutional crisis that culminated in the January 6th insurrection. The warning that protectionism could "cause the whole fragile structure of world trade to come crashing down" anticipated the trade wars that escalated under Trump and have continued under Biden.

The article's treatment of China is particularly sharp: it identifies the debt-fuelled growth after 2008 as a temporary fix that "creates new contradictions that threaten the future stability of China and the entire world." The total debt ballooning from $6tn to $28tn between 2008 and 2016, the shadow banking system, and the slowing growth below 7% are all identified as ticking time bombs. The subsequent property crisis in China, the collapse of Evergrande, and the broader deflationary pressures bear out this analysis.

The assessment of Europe — that the euro crisis is "not resolved" and that the EU is being driven apart by national antagonisms — has been confirmed by the Brexit process, the rise of the AfD in Germany, the fragmentation of the Italian party system, and the repeated crises over fiscal discipline. The article's prediction that a Corbyn-led Labour government would face "fierce resistance from the ruling class and the active sabotage of the Blairite fifth column" was tested in the 2019 election, where the internal sabotage the article describes contributed to Labour's defeat.

The geopolitical analysis — that the US has been "defeated in Syria," that the old US-led order in the Middle East is "unravelling," and that China is filling the vacuum — has been confirmed by the subsequent normalisation of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran (brokered by China), the continued decline of US influence in the region, and the expansion of the BRICS grouping.

Where the Argument Continues

This article is a world perspectives document — a synthetic overview rather than a deep dive into any single question. The argument continues in several directions within the IDOM corpus:

  • The theory of crisis: The article's claim that the 2008 crash was "qualitatively different" is elaborated in earlier IDOM articles on the tendency of the rate of profit to fall and the nature of fictitious capital. The relationship between credit, overaccumulation, and stagnation is treated more systematically in the theoretical writings of Alan Woods and Ted Grant.

  • The crisis of reformism: The analysis of Syriza's betrayal, Podemos's vacillation, and Corbyn's limitations is developed in numerous subsequent articles tracking the fate of left reformist governments and movements. The 2019 Greek election, the collapse of Podemos's electoral support, and the 2019 UK general election are all analysed as confirmations of the article's framework.

  • Geopolitical shifts: The claim that "world war is ruled out by the class balance of forces" is revisited in later articles on Ukraine (2022) and Gaza (2023), where the argument is refined: the absence of world war does not mean the absence of war, and the danger increases as the crisis deepens.

  • The molecular process: The concept is developed in Against the Stream episodes and articles on the French Yellow Vests (2018-2019), the Chilean uprising (2019), the US George Floyd protests (2020), and the Sri Lankan revolution (2022), all presented as confirmations of the molecular accumulation of revolutionary energy.

Connections

This article should be read alongside:

  • Trotsky, The History of the Russian Revolution — the theoretical source for the "molecular process" and the analysis of how mass consciousness changes.
  • Marx, Capital Volume 3, Part 5 — on credit and fictitious capital, the theoretical basis for the analysis of debt.
  • Lenin, Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism — the framework for understanding interimperialist rivalry and the limits of the nation state.
  • Alan Woods, Reformism or Revolution — the systematic treatment of the crisis of reformism that this article applies concretely.
  • Ted Grant, The Unbroken Thread — the theoretical tradition within which the article's method is situated.
  • Earlier IDOM world perspectives documents (2014, 2016) — to trace the evolution of the analysis of the organic crisis.
  • The IDOM articles on the 2008 crash — for the theoretical foundations of the claim that this was not a normal cyclical crisis.

Key Quotes

  1. "This crisis was qualitatively different from any other in the past. It was not a normal cyclical crisis, but a reflection of the organic crisis of capitalism. A decade after the collapse of 2008, the bourgeoisie is still struggling to extricate itself from the crisis that destroyed the equilibrium of the capitalist system."

  2. "The system is literally drowning in a surfeit of wealth. It is like the sorcerer's apprentice who has conjured up forces that he cannot control. The productive forces have the potential to produce a mass of commodities that cannot be absorbed by the markets."

  3. "The reason for the present impasse is that, in the decades prior to 2008, capitalism not only reached its limits but went far beyond its 'natural' limits. The unprecedented expansion of credit and debt is partly what enabled capitalism to overcome the constraints of the market and overproduction."

  4. "Trotsky explained what he called the molecular process of revolution. ... The discontent of the masses accumulates unnoticed until it finally reaches that critical point when quantity is transformed into quality."

  5. "Lenin explained that a split in the ruling class is one of the conditions of a revolutionary process. Here we have an open split in the state. This is not a normal political crisis. It is a crisis of the regime."

  6. "The long period of capitalist upswing that followed the end of the Second World War set the final seal on the degeneration of the Social Democracy. ... For the masses, reformism with reforms makes sense. But reformism without reforms, or rather, reformism with counter-reforms, makes no sense at all."