Tectonic shifts in world relations provoke volcanic explosions

Marxist Perspectives · 2024-12-20

Core Argument¶

The central thesis is that the world is undergoing a tectonic shift in the relative strength of competing imperialist powers, driven above all by the relative decline of US imperialism and the rise of China as a dynamic, younger imperialist rival. This shift is not producing a stable multipolar equilibrium but rather intensifying inter-imperialist rivalry expressed through regional wars, trade wars, arms races, and diplomatic realignments. The article argues that these conflicts are not aberrations but the logical expression of Lenin's analysis of imperialism as a struggle for the redivision of the world on the basis of changing economic and military strength. The current conjuncture — Ukraine, the Middle East, the crisis in Europe, the rise of the BRICS — is a single interconnected process driven by this underlying dynamic. The working class cannot seek refuge in any camp within this rivalry; the only progressive way out is the revolutionary overthrow of capitalism and the establishment of a socialist federation of the Middle East and beyond.

Theoretical Grounding¶

The analysis is grounded in Lenin's Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism, specifically the understanding that the division of the world among imperialist powers is never settled once and for all, but is constantly renegotiated through "peaceful and non-peaceful struggle" as the relative strength of the participants changes. The article draws on the classical Marxist theory of imperialism as a system of competing national capitals, each driven by the logic of accumulation to seek spheres of influence, sources of raw materials, fields of investment, and markets. It rejects the notion that the present situation represents a progressive "multipolar" order, insisting instead that the rivalry between imperialist robbers offers nothing for the working class or oppressed nations.

The article also deploys concepts from Marxist crisis theory — overproduction, the rising organic composition of capital, the tendency of the rate of profit to fall — to explain China's slowing growth and the general stagnation of world trade. The analysis of European capitalism draws on the understanding that the EU is not a supranational entity but a collection of competing national ruling classes, whose contradictions are exposed in moments of crisis. The treatment of Russia's Bonapartist character — Putin as a "cunning, manoeuvring Bonapartist, who used gangster methods to impose his will" — situates the analysis within the Marxist tradition of analysing the state form under conditions of class and inter-imperialist instability.

Conjunctural Relevance¶

The article was published in December 2024 and addresses a rapidly unfolding conjuncture. It analyses the war in Ukraine as heading towards a humiliating defeat for US-NATO, with sanctions having failed and Russia having established closer economic ties with China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. It situates the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack and the subsequent Israeli genocide in Gaza within the broader weakening of US imperialism in the Middle East, the collapse of the Oslo Accords, and the desperation of the Zionist ruling class to reassert its deterrent power. The article was written before the fall of the Assad regime, but it includes a post-hoc analysis of that event, interpreting it as the result of Syria being hollowed out by sanctions, corruption, and sectarianism, and as a blow to Russia and Iran that strengthens Turkey and Israel.

The article identifies the collapse of the French and German governments as the latest manifestations of the crisis of European capitalism, and links the rise of right-wing populism across Europe to the economic consequences of the Ukraine war — higher energy prices, inflation, and loss of competitiveness. It notes that global military expenditure in 2023 reached over $2.44 trillion, the highest ever recorded, and that 2023 saw the highest number of wars since the end of WWII. The election of Donald Trump is interpreted as a reflection of the contradictions in world relations, with his "America First" programme representing a recognition of US relative decline, though the article warns that US imperialism cannot simply disentangle itself from global commitments.

Where the Argument Continues¶

The article is part of a broader corpus of analysis produced by the Revolutionary Communist International. It references a discussion of Lenin's ideas on imperialism published elsewhere on marxist.com, and a separate analysis of the rise of China as an imperialist power. The Draghi report on European competitiveness is discussed in another article. The argument about the crisis of European capitalism and the rise of right-wing populism is developed further in other IDOM articles analysing the political situation in France, Germany, and Italy. The perspective of a socialist federation of the Middle East as the only solution to the Palestinian national question is a recurring theme in the RCI's output, developed in more detail in articles on the Middle East and in episodes of Against the Stream. The analysis of the BRICS as a contradictory and unstable formation is continued in discussions of the geopolitics of de-dollarisation and the limits of anti-imperialist posturing by bourgeois states.

Connections¶

The article should be read alongside Lenin's Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism as its theoretical foundation. It connects to Trotsky's analysis of uneven and combined development, which is implicit in the treatment of China as a latecomer imperialist power that has compressed stages of development. The analysis of the crisis of European capitalism echoes Marx's discussion of the contradictions of the world market in Volume III of Capital. The treatment of the arms race and militarism connects to Rosa Luxemburg's The Accumulation of Capital and her analysis of militarism as a field of accumulation. The article's rejection of "multipolarity" as a progressive aim connects to the broader Marxist critique of bourgeois geopolitics, found in the writings of the International Marxist Tendency and the RCI. The analysis of the Middle East should be read alongside the RCI's other articles on Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria, and alongside Lenin's The Right of Nations to Self-Determination.

Key Quotes¶

"What we are witnessing is a shift of tectonic proportions in the relative strength of competing imperialist powers. And as with the movement of tectonic plates on the Earth's crust, such movements are accompanied by explosions of all sorts."
"The US still dominates the world economy through its control of financial markets. A massive 58 percent of the world's currency reserves are held in US dollars (while only two percent are held in Chinese renminbi), although the figure is down from 73 percent in 2001."
"China is facing a classic crisis of capitalist overproduction and the impact of the rising organic composition of capital. At the same time, Chinese exports are coming up against tariff barriers and protectionism at a time when the expansion of world trade has come to a halt."
"That the narrow personal interests of one man can have such an outsized effect on events is a reflection of the enormous instability of the whole of the world situation. The ruling class is not always capable of acting in a rational way, in its own best interests."
"The European working class, with its forces largely intact and undefeated, will not accept a new round of austerity cuts and mass layoffs without a fight. The stage is set for an explosion of the class struggle."
"There is nothing progressive in replacing the brutal and predatory domination of US imperialism by the domination of several imperialist powers fighting each other over the dead bodies of hundreds of thousands of workers and the poor, and millions of displaced."