Perspectives for world capitalism 2012 Draft discussion document
Here is a structured analytical summary of the draft discussion document, Perspectives for world capitalism 2012, written for a well-read Marxist.
Core Argument¶
The central thesis is that the 2008 financial crash was not a cyclical downturn but the opening of a new epoch: the terminal, organic crisis of world capitalism. The document argues that the feeble "recovery" of 2009-2011 was the weakest in history, built on exhausted credit mechanisms and state bailouts that merely transferred private debt onto sovereign balance sheets. This has created an insoluble contradiction: the bourgeoisie can no longer use Keynesian stimulus (states are bankrupt) nor neoliberal austerity (which destroys demand and triggers revolt). The only way out for capital is to destroy the living standards and social conquests of the working class, but this path inevitably provokes mass resistance. The article claims we are entering the "opening chapter of world revolution," a protracted period of wars, revolutions, and counter-revolutions, where the decisive question is whether a revolutionary Marxist leadership can crystallise from the spontaneous movements of the workers and youth.
Theoretical Grounding¶
The analysis is firmly rooted in the Marxist theory of crisis, drawing directly on Marx's refutation of Say's Law and the concept of the contradiction between the productive forces and the capitalist relations of production (the "straitjacket" of private property and the nation-state). It explicitly rejects both Keynesian and neoclassical explanations, framing the crisis as a manifestation of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall, postponed but not resolved by a massive expansion of credit and fictitious capital (derivatives, securitised debt). The document sits within the Trotskyist tradition, applying the theory of permanent revolution to the Arab Spring and the theory of combined and uneven development to the global economy. It draws heavily on the historical analogy of the 1930s (the Great Depression, the collapse of the Credit-Anstalt) and the 1848 revolutions, but insists the current conjuncture is distinct because the working class is largely undefeated and its mass organisations intact. The political framework is a Leninist critique of reformism, arguing that social-democratic and Stalinist parties now function as the primary administrators of capitalist austerity, blocking the revolutionary potential of the masses.
Conjunctural Relevance¶
The document is a snapshot of the immediate post-2008 conjuncture, written in early 2012. It correctly identifies the key fault lines of the period: - The Eurozone Crisis: The article analyses the sovereign debt crisis as a "deadly contagion" spreading from Greece (the "weakest link") to Italy, Spain, and threatening France and Germany. It predicts a Greek default and possible ejection from the euro, warning of a domino effect on banks and a collapse of the EU itself. It notes the imposition of "technocratic" governments (Monti in Italy, Papademos in Greece) as a suspension of bourgeois democracy. - The Arab Spring: The document interprets the uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya as a fundamental turning point, proving the revolutionary potential of the masses. It critiques both the Stalinist left and the Islamist parties, arguing the revolution will go through stages of ebb and flow, with the Muslim Brotherhood eventually being exposed as a bourgeois force unable to deliver on the masses' demands. - The US and UK: It highlights the Occupy Wall Street movement and the Wisconsin protests as signs of a radicalising American working class, free from the dead weight of a reformist labour party. It notes the UK riots and the largest strikes since 1926 as evidence of deep social anger. - The BRICS Myth: The document debunks the idea that China, India, or Brazil could act as "locomotives" for the global economy. It points to China's slowing growth, rising debt, and massive internal inequality, arguing that its export model is dependent on collapsing Western markets.
Where the Argument Continues¶
This document is a draft for internal discussion within the International Marxist Tendency (IMT, now the RCI). The argument continues in several directions: - Subsequent World Perspectives Documents: The RCI publishes annual or biennial updates. The 2012 analysis is the baseline for later documents that track the actual trajectory of the Greek crisis, the rise of Syriza, the Brexit vote, and the COVID-19 crash. These later documents test the 2012 prediction of a "new and even steeper fall." - Against the Stream Episodes: The RCI's weekly podcast regularly revisits the themes of this document, providing concrete updates on the class struggle in specific countries (e.g., the French gilets jaunes, the Chilean uprising, the Sri Lankan collapse) and analysing them through the same theoretical lens. - Specific Theoretical Texts: The argument about the "weakest recovery in history" and the exhaustion of credit is developed in more detail in earlier texts referenced in the document, such as Ted Grant's Will There be a Slump? (1960) and the IMT's On a Knife's Edge (1999). The critique of "left reformism" is a constant thread in the RCI's polemics against figures like Bernie Sanders, Jeremy Corbyn, and Syriza's Alexis Tsipras.
Connections¶
This document should be read alongside: - Trotsky's The Death Agony of Capitalism and the Tasks of the Fourth International (The Transitional Program, 1938): The document explicitly models its analysis of the "organic crisis" on Trotsky's perspective of the 1930s. - Lenin's Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism: The analysis of finance capital, fictitious capital, and the parasitic nature of the boom is a direct application of Lenin's framework. - Marx's Capital, Volume III and Theories of Surplus Value: The theoretical grounding in the tendency of the rate of profit to fall and the critique of Say's Law is essential background. - Ernest Mandel's Late Capitalism: While not cited, the document's periodisation of capitalist history (post-war boom, 1970s crisis, neoliberal era) echoes Mandel's "long wave" theory.
Key Quotes¶
- "The 'recovery' that followed the slump of 2008-9 is indicative of this tendency. It is the weakest recovery in history—the weakest since 1830, according to the bourgeois economists—and merely paves the way for an even deeper slump."
- "The bourgeoisie avoided the collapse of the banks, but only at the cost of provoking the bankruptcy and collapse of entire states. They have turned the black hole of the private financial system into a black hole of public finance."
- "The problem faced by the bourgeois is easily stated: they can no longer use the usual instruments to get out of the slump as they have already used them up during the boom."
- "The Greek working people rose up in revolt against these impositions. Their example will be followed by the workers of Italy, Spain and every other country in Europe. Debt servicing (interest) is the third largest expense of the Spanish government, after healthcare and unemployment benefits: $35bn annually."
- "The fate of the sects should serve us as a warning. They are in crisis because all their attempts to build 'revolutionary' parties outside the traditional mass organizations of the proletariat have ended in ignominious failure, although the objective conditions for this were as favourable as they will ever be."
- "It is precisely the reformists who are implementing the cuts, either directly or by supporting the right-wing governments’ attacks on living standards as a 'patriotic duty'... Without the reformist leaders, capitalism could not last even for a week."