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Crisis and Class Struggle: World Perspectives 2016

Marxist Perspectives · 2016-03-26

Core Argument

The central thesis is that capitalism has entered a prolonged period of structural crisis — not merely a cyclical downturn — which will fundamentally reshape class struggle, political consciousness, and international relations for decades. The article claims that the 2008 financial crisis was not an exceptional event from which recovery was possible, but the opening phase of a new historical epoch comparable to the interwar period (1914–1945). This epoch is characterised by permanent austerity, the exhaustion of all bourgeois policy tools (monetary, fiscal, and political), and the inevitable radicalisation of the working class as reformist illusions are burned away by events.

The argument proceeds dialectically: the very mechanisms that temporarily stabilised capitalism after 2008 — Chinese stimulus, quantitative easing, the expansion of debt — have now turned into their opposites, becoming the sources of the next, deeper crisis. The bourgeoisie has no way out within the framework of capitalism, and the working class has not yet found its way out either, but the objective conditions for revolutionary intervention are ripening.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis is rooted in classical Marxist political economy, particularly Marx's theory of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall and the crisis theory derived from it. The article explicitly rejects mechanical interpretations of long-wave theory (Kondratiev) in favour of a dialectical understanding of capitalist development as a series of booms and slumps within a broader secular decline. The key theoretical move is the insistence that the current period represents not a temporary interruption of growth but the exhaustion of capitalism's capacity to develop the productive forces on a world scale.

The article draws heavily on Trotsky's analysis of the interwar period, particularly his understanding of the relationship between economic crisis, political radicalisation, and the molecular process of revolutionary development. The concept of "permanent austerity" is a contemporary application of Trotsky's insight that capitalism in decline can offer the working class nothing but worsening conditions. The analysis of reformism — both right and left variants — is grounded in the Marxist understanding that reformism is not merely a mistaken strategy but a structural expression of working-class integration into capitalism during periods of expansion, which necessarily becomes a mechanism of betrayal when the system enters crisis.

The document also deploys Lenin's theory of imperialism to analyse the geopolitical contradictions between the US, China, Russia, and regional powers, arguing that interimperialist rivalry is intensifying but cannot find the traditional outlet of world war due to the changed correlation of class forces.

Conjunctural Relevance

The article was drafted in October 2015 and finalised in early 2016, and its conjunctural analysis is remarkably prescient. It identifies several dynamics that would define the subsequent period:

Economically, the article predicts a new global slump driven by the slowdown in China, the exhaustion of quantitative easing, and the mountain of global debt ($57tn increase since 2007). It notes that global debt had reached 286% of world GDP, higher than in 2007, and that the "emerging markets" — which had acted as the locomotive of world growth — were now the main source of danger. The IMF's repeated downgrades and the phenomenon of "secular stagnation" are cited as evidence that bourgeois economists themselves recognise the depth of the crisis.

Politically, the article identifies the rise of anti-establishment movements across the advanced capitalist world as the political expression of the crisis. It discusses Syriza's capitulation in Greece (which had occurred just months earlier), the emergence of Podemos in Spain, the election of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader, the Sanders and Trump phenomena in the US, and the rise of the National Front in France. The analysis of Syriza's betrayal is particularly sharp: Tsipras's surrender to the Troika is presented as the definitive proof that left reformism cannot deliver within the framework of capitalism.

Geopolitically, the article anticipates the Russian intervention in Syria (which began in September 2015), the deepening US-Russia confrontation over Ukraine, the Saudi-led war in Yemen, and the intensification of US-China rivalry in the South China Sea. It correctly identifies that the refugee crisis would tear apart the Schengen Agreement and accelerate the disintegration of the European Union. The analysis of Turkey's role in supporting Islamist forces in Syria, and the contradictions this creates with NATO, is particularly sharp.

Where the Argument Continues

This document is a world perspectives resolution, meaning it sets the strategic framework for the entire International Marxist Tendency (now the Revolutionary Communist International). The argument continues in several directions:

  1. The question of the European Union and Brexit: The article's prediction that the EU would face disintegration is developed in subsequent IDOM articles on the Greek crisis, the Brexit referendum, and the rise of the far right. The special resolution on Brexit, linked in the document, is a direct continuation.

  2. The analysis of reformism: The article's treatment of Syriza, Podemos, and Corbyn is the basis for ongoing strategic debates about how Marxists should relate to left-reformist formations. Later IDOM articles on Corbyn's Labour Party, the rise and fall of Podemos, and the trajectory of the Sanders campaign develop these themes.

  3. The geopolitical analysis: The article's framework for understanding US-China rivalry, the Syrian war, and the crisis of NATO is elaborated in subsequent analyses of the Ukraine war (2022), the Taiwan Strait tensions, and the realignment of Middle Eastern powers.

  4. The theory of permanent austerity: This concept is developed further in IDOM articles on the COVID-19 pandemic, the cost-of-living crisis, and the inflation debate of 2022–2023.

  5. The question of fascism and Bonapartism: The article's argument that fascism in its classical form is not an imminent danger, but that Bonapartist regimes are possible, is a strategic position that continues to be debated and refined in the RCI's internal documents and public interventions.

Connections

This article should be read alongside:

  • Trotsky's "The Death Agony of Capitalism and the Tasks of the Fourth International" (The Transitional Programme) — the theoretical foundation for the strategic perspective outlined here.
  • Trotsky's "Where is Britain Going?" — the analysis of Labour Party dynamics and the possibility of a left turn within reformist parties.
  • Marx's "Capital", Volume 3, Part 3 — the theory of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall, which underlies the crisis analysis.
  • Lenin's "Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism" — the framework for understanding interimperialist rivalry.
  • IDOM articles on the Greek crisis (2015) — the concrete analysis of Syriza's capitulation that informs the theoretical conclusions here.
  • IDOM articles on the 2008 crisis and its aftermath — the earlier analyses that this document synthesises and updates.
  • Against the Stream episodes on world economy and geopolitics — the ongoing development of the conjunctural analysis.

Key Quotes

  1. "The present world situation is characterised by crisis at all levels: economic, financial, social, political, diplomatic and military. The main cause of the crisis is the inability of capitalism to develop the productive forces on a world scale."

  2. "The capitalists have lost faith in the system. They sit on piles of trillions of dollars. What point is there in investing to boost production when they cannot use the productive capacity that they already have? Lower investment also means stagnant productivity of labour."

  3. "The problem for the bourgeois is that they have already used up the mechanisms they need to get out of a slump or lessen its impact. When the next slump occurs (and it is a question of when, not if) they lack the tools to respond."

  4. "The whole point of the austerity regime was to lower the volume of debt, particularly state debt. But figures show that this is far from being the case... global debt has increased by $57tn since 2007, or from 269% of world GDP to 286%."

  5. "The difference between right- and left-reformism is only relative. The essence of reformism – whether of the right or left variety – is the idea that it is not necessary to overthrow the capitalist system, that it is possible gradually to improve the conditions of the workers and oppressed within the framework of capitalism. But the experience of Greece, Venezuela, and everywhere else this has been attempted shows that this is not possible."

  6. "The new period into which we have entered will be far more similar to the stormy years of the inter-war period than to the last half century. But there are also profound differences... the crisis can be prolonged for far longer than in the past before the final denouement is reached. That does not mean that things will be more tranquil, but quite the opposite."