2025 where is the world going a Marxist analysis
Core Argument¶
The central thesis is that 2025 marks a qualitative turning point in world history: the breakdown of the post-war US-led imperialist order and the opening of a new epoch defined by inter-imperialist rivalry, war, and intensified class struggle. The article claims that the globalised capitalist economy is being actively dismantled by the very powers that built it, as declining profitability and shrinking surplus value force each imperialist state to pursue its own interests at the expense of the system's previous coherence. Trump's second term is presented not as an aberration but as the logical expression of this deeper crisis: tariffs on allies, withdrawal from Ukraine, and the abandonment of Europe are symptoms of a system where the old rules of liberal internationalism no longer serve the dominant capitals. The argument is that this fragmentation is objectively revolutionary, because the instability, austerity, and war it generates will drive mass radicalisation and open the door to working-class intervention.
Theoretical Grounding¶
The analysis is rooted in the Leninist theory of imperialism as developed by Bukharin and refined by Trotsky, particularly the understanding that imperialism is not a policy but the highest stage of capitalism, and that inter-imperialist rivalry is an inescapable feature of the system once the world market is fully carved up. The article draws on the Marxist theory of crisis, implicitly invoking the tendency of the rate of profit to fall as the underlying driver of the shrinking surplus that forces each power to fight for a larger share. There is also a clear debt to Trotsky's theory of uneven and combined development, which explains how China and Russia could emerge as imperialist rivals to the US despite having been semi-colonial or backward economies within living memory. The analysis rejects any notion of a benign or stabilising multipolarity, insisting instead that the multiplication of imperialist centres intensifies competition and war. The political line is firmly anti-reformist: the article treats the state as an instrument of class rule and the capitalist system as incapable of resolving its own contradictions, pointing to revolution as the only way out.
Conjunctural Relevance¶
The article is written in June 2025, and its analysis is anchored in several concrete developments. Trump's second term is the immediate political context: the imposition of tariffs on both China and European allies, the attempted withdrawal from Ukraine, and the rhetorical abandonment of NATO partners are cited as evidence that US imperialism is no longer willing or able to bear the costs of global hegemony. The article references the crushing debt burden on developing nations, drawing on Financial Times data, and links this to the broader crisis of overaccumulation. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza are treated not as isolated conflicts but as expressions of the same underlying dynamic: inter-imperialist rivalry and the desperate search for markets and resources. The mass movements in Serbia, Turkey, and Greece, along with the global solidarity protests over Palestine, are presented as early indicators of a rising wave of class struggle. The article also mentions the repression of the Awaami Action Committee in Gilgit Baltistan, Pakistan, as a concrete example of state violence against workers' organisations in the Global South.
Where the Argument Continues¶
The article is a summary of a longer discussion on the Against the Stream podcast, and the full episode would develop these themes in greater depth. The argument about monopoly capitalism and the world economy is elaborated in a separate article on Marxist.com, which provides the theoretical backbone for the analysis of inter-imperialist rivalry. The repression in Pakistan is covered in two linked articles that detail the protests and the solidarity campaign, showing how the RCI is attempting to build practical internationalist solidarity alongside its theoretical work. The broader theoretical tradition is continued in the writings of Trotsky on imperialism and the transitional programme, as well as in the RCI's own documents leading up to its first congress. The article does not develop a detailed analysis of the internal dynamics of the Chinese or Russian economies, nor does it examine the specific class formations within those states — these are gaps that would need to be filled by other texts in the corpus.
Connections¶
This article should be read alongside Lenin's Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism and Bukharin's Imperialism and World Economy for the theoretical foundations. Trotsky's The War and the International and his writings on the inter-war period provide the historical analogue for the current conjuncture. Within the RCI's own output, the article on monopoly capitalism and the world economy is the direct companion piece. For the analysis of Trump and US decline, the work of Michael Hudson on financial imperialism and the work of Radhika Desai on geopolitical economy offer complementary perspectives, though from different theoretical traditions. The article on Pakistan connects to the broader literature on state repression and workers' movements in South Asia.
Key Quotes¶
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"The tectonic plates of international relations are shifting, the globalised world economy is being torn apart, and the entire capitalist order is being shaken to its foundations by political, economic, environmental and social crises."
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"For over half a century following the Second World War, America straddled the capitalist world as the sole imperialist hegemon. Now that has changed. China and Russia have emerged as imperialist powers in their own right, whereas the power of US imperialism has shown its limits."
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"These dramatic moves reveal something that has been building for a long time: as the capitalist crisis deepens, and with less loot to go around, it's every man for himself."
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"The strife between the powers is unravelling decades of globalisation and free trade, pouring gasoline on the fire of the economic crisis."
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"For the majority of the world's population, this means instability, austerity, and the horrors of war. But, at the same time, this very chaos is a recipe for class struggle."
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"The workers of the world won't take this lying down forever: already, the radicalisation over the genocide in Palestine and the mass movements in Serbia, Turkey and Greece signal that revolutionary explosions are on the horizon."