2006 world revolution and the tasks of the Marxists

Marxist Perspectives · 2006-09-15

Core Argument

The central thesis is that capitalism has entered a period of terminal historical decline, and that the world has entered the most turbulent period in history — characterised by extreme instability at every level: economic, social, political, diplomatic and military. The argument claims that the boom of the early 2000s is fundamentally different from previous capitalist upswings: it is based on fictitious capital, unprecedented indebtedness, and intensified exploitation rather than rising living standards. This boom is preparing the ground for a serious slump, and the political and social convulsions already visible — from Latin America to Europe to the Middle East — are the early symptoms of a revolutionary epoch. The key barrier to revolutionary victory is not objective conditions, which are more favourable than at any time since the 1930s, but the crisis of proletarian leadership: the mass organisations of the working class have been converted into obstacles in its path.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis is grounded in the classical Marxist tradition, drawing directly on Marx's law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall, his analysis of credit and crisis in Volume III of Capital, and Lenin's dictum that politics is concentrated economics. The document explicitly rejects economic determinism, citing Trotsky's 1924 preface to The First Five Years of the Communist International to argue that political-psychological processes have their own inner logic. The theory of the permanent revolution — Trotsky's 1904 formulation — provides the strategic framework for understanding Latin America, where the bourgeoisie is incapable of completing even the democratic tasks of national unification and agrarian reform. The analysis of the relationship between economic cycles and political consciousness draws on the distinction between periods of capitalist upswing (which produce reformism) and periods of senile decay (which produce revolutionary turbulence). The document situates itself within the tradition of the Fourth International, treating the crisis of leadership as the central problem of the epoch.

Conjunctural Relevance

The argument connects directly to the specific conjuncture of 2005-2006. Economically, it identifies the US housing bubble as the biggest speculative boom in history, larger than 1929, with consumer spending and residential construction representing 90% of US GDP growth. It notes that US corporate profits as a share of national income were at an all-time high while investment remained weak — a contradiction the IMF itself had warned about. Politically, the document analyses: the French banlieues riots; the defeat of the European Constitution in French and Dutch referendums; the electoral victory of Evo Morales in Bolivia with 54% of the vote; the Venezuelan revolution's trajectory through the 2004 recall referendum and the 2005 legislative elections; the mass immigrant demonstrations in the US in spring 2006; the insurrectionary movements in Ecuador and Bolivia that overthrew governments; the crisis of the Italian economy under the euro; and the deepening quagmire in Iraq, where 72% of US troops surveyed wanted withdrawal within a year. Geopolitically, it identifies the emerging rivalry between the US and China, the split between the US and Europe, and the limits of US power exposed in Iraq and Latin America.

Where the Argument Continues

The article leaves several questions open for further development. The analysis of China's internal contradictions — the rise in mass protests from 10,000 in 1994 to 74,000 in 2004 — is flagged but not developed theoretically. The relationship between the indigenous movement and the working class is identified as a key question requiring further Marxist elaboration, particularly around the national question and the agrarian revolution. The analysis of Cuba's internal dynamics — the threat of capitalist restoration from within, the role of workers' democracy — is explicitly noted as requiring a separate document. The question of the tempo of revolutionary development — why Venezuela proceeds in "slow motion" compared to Russia in 1917 — is posed but not fully resolved. These threads are taken up in subsequent IDOM articles on China, the Bolivarian process, and the indigenous question, as well as in Against the Stream episodes analysing specific conjunctural developments in Latin America and Europe.

Connections

The document should be read alongside Trotsky's The Transitional Programme (1938) and The Death Agony of Capitalism and the Tasks of the Fourth International for the strategic framework. Lenin's Inflammable Material in World Politics provides the methodological approach to reading symptoms of crisis. The analysis of the housing bubble and fictitious capital connects to Marx's discussion of credit in Volume III of Capital, particularly chapters on the role of credit in crises. The analysis of the Bolivarian process connects to Trotsky's writings on the Spanish Revolution (1931-37) as a comparative case. The critique of the ultra-left position on the Bolivian elections connects to Lenin's Left-Wing Communism: An Infantile Disorder. The document's treatment of the indigenous question should be read alongside the Fourth International's 1934 theses on Latin America cited within the text.

Key Quotes

1. "The present boom is based on unsound foundations. The whole world is dependent on the USA and now, to a lesser extent, on China. But the present feverish rate of growth in China is unsustainable and prepares the way for a serious crisis of overproduction."

2. "In the USA, the so-called American Dream — work hard, get rich — has been exposed as nonsense. In the first decade of the 21st century, American capitalism is not a dream but a nightmare for millions of people."

3. "The character of the present boom bears no relation to the booms of the past. It has not led to an improvement in living standards. On the contrary, it is based on a general intensification of exploitation, longer hours of work, speed-ups and cuts."

4. "The central problem is that those mass organisations — communist, socialist and trade union — that were created by the working class to change society have been converted into powerful obstacles in its path. In the words of Leon Trotsky, the crisis of humanity can be reduced to the crisis of leadership of the proletariat."

5. "The Bolivarian revolution, despite its incompleteness, its confusions, its internal contradictions, serves as an example to the rest of Latin America... The slogan 'For a Socialist Federation of Latin America' now acquires a vital importance."

6. "The task of the Marxists, the most conscious and resolute section of the class, is to make conscious the unconscious or semi-conscious strivings of the workers to change society."