The meaning of the rise of China

Marxist Analysis · 2026-05-13

Core Argument

The central thesis is that China's rise as a world industrial and technological power is a product of capitalism's uneven and combined development, mediated by a uniquely powerful Bonapartist state. The article argues that China's success is neither a vindication of "socialism with Chinese characteristics" nor simply a story of market liberalisation, but rather the outcome of a specific historical conjuncture: a backward economy that could leapfrog stages of development, combined with a state apparatus that retained sufficient independence from the bourgeoisie to discipline capital and direct investment strategically. However, this success is fundamentally limited by the contradictions of capitalism itself — overproduction, declining profitability, and the inevitable pressure on the working class — which no amount of state intervention can ultimately resolve.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis is firmly rooted in the Marxist theory of uneven and combined development, drawing directly on Trotsky's formulation of the "privilege of historic backwardness." This concept explains how late-developing capitalist economies can adopt the most advanced techniques without passing through intermediate stages, while older imperialist powers remain burdened by accumulated contradictions and sunk costs.

The article also deploys Marx's analysis of Bonapartism, though with careful specification of how the Chinese case differs from the classic form. Marx's Bonapartism arose from a deadlock in class struggle; China's variant stems from a bureaucratic layer that restored capitalism while preserving its own dictatorial power, creating a state that stands above both classes — disciplining the bourgeoisie while suppressing the proletariat.

The theoretical framework draws on Lenin's analysis of monopoly capitalism and crisis, particularly the tendency for new industries to attract overinvestment, driving down profits and producing crises of overproduction. The article explicitly rejects any notion that China represents a planned economy, arguing that despite state direction, production remains driven by profit and market competition — the defining features of capitalism.

Conjunctural Relevance

The article was written in October 2025, at a moment when US-China rivalry has become the central axis of world politics. It cites specific data: China accounts for 30 percent of world manufacturing, more than the US, Germany, Japan and South Korea combined; seven of the world's top ten research institutions are Chinese; China has more industrial robots installed than the rest of the world combined.

The analysis connects directly to the current conjuncture of stagnation in the older imperialist powers — US growth at 2.8 percent, EU stagnation at 0.1 percent — against China's five percent growth. It highlights specific flashpoints: the semiconductor blockade, where US export controls are accelerating Chinese self-sufficiency; the electric vehicle price wars, where state subsidies created massive overcapacity (49.5 percent capacity utilisation in 2024); and the Evergrande crisis, which the state contained but cannot resolve.

The article also situates China's rise within the broader crisis of world capitalism, arguing that no country can fully extricate itself from this crisis, however well-managed its domestic economy appears.

Where the Argument Continues

The article opens several lines of analysis that require further development. The relationship between China's Bonapartist state and the global capitalist system is stated but not fully theorised — how does this state form interact with the internationalisation of capital? The article mentions but does not explore the implications of China's military modernisation for interimperialist rivalry. The question of how the Chinese working class will develop class consciousness — given the combination of nationalist sentiment, rising living standards, and authoritarian suppression — is posed but left open.

These themes are developed in other IDOM articles on China, particularly those examining the nature of the Chinese state, the trajectory of US-China trade war, and the prospects for working-class struggle in East Asia. The broader theoretical questions about Bonapartism and state capitalism are addressed in the Marxist tradition's debates on the Soviet Union and post-Soviet states.

Connections

The article should be read alongside Trotsky's The History of the Russian Revolution for the theory of uneven and combined development, and Marx's The Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte for the theory of Bonapartism. Lenin's Imperialism: the Highest Stage of Capitalism provides the framework for understanding monopoly capitalism and interimperialist rivalry.

Within the IDOM corpus, this article connects to analyses of the US-China trade war, the nature of the Chinese state, and the crisis of world capitalism. It also engages with broader Marxist debates on state capitalism and the class character of post-revolutionary states.

Key Quotes

1. "The privilege of historic backwardness – and such a privilege exists – permits, or rather compels, the adoption of whatever is ready in advance of any specified date, skipping a whole series of intermediate stages."

2. "The CCP bureaucracy has to permanently balance between the bourgeoisie and the working class – which Marxists refer to as 'Bonapartism', where the state raises itself above any one class and rules directly by police methods – in order to preserve the existing system as a whole."

3. "Despite heavy state intervention, it is the pressures of the market and profitability, two basic pillars of a capitalist economy, that ultimately determine how the economy functions."

4. "As long as the economic system remains on the basis of an anarchic market, production for profit, the nation state, and private property, no amount of state regulation can forestall the inevitable result of a crisis of overproduction."

5. "China is rising while world capitalism is in its most serious crisis in history. It may be able to defend itself from world crises or competition from US imperialism to a certain extent, but it cannot fully extricate itself from the crisis of world capitalism."

6. "The Chinese proletariat – massively strengthened alongside the economy – occupies an unparalleled position on the world stage. Sooner or later, the world will be even more awestruck by the movement of the Chinese working class than it is today by China's technological advancements."