Fukuyamas second thoughts socialism ought to come back

Marxist Analysis · 2026-05-13

Core Argument

The article argues that Francis Fukuyama's recent recantation of his "end of history" thesis is symptomatic of a deeper, objective crisis of the capitalist system itself — not merely a crisis of neoliberalism as a policy regime. Fukuyama's belated admission that Marx was right about capitalist crisis, overproduction, and the impoverishment of workers is treated not as a conversion to socialism but as evidence that even the most committed bourgeois ideologues can no longer sustain faith in capitalism's future. The central claim is that the system has entered a terminal phase from which there is no capitalist exit, and that the political instability, war, and "populist" ferment sweeping the globe are surface expressions of this underlying reality. Fukuyama's theoretical hopelessness is presented as the mirror of the bourgeoisie's own historical exhaustion.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis draws on classical Marxist crisis theory, specifically Marx's analysis of overproduction and the contradiction between the social character of production and private appropriation. Woods distinguishes Marx's theory from Keynesian underconsumptionism, noting that Fukuyama conflates the two — a telling sign of the limits of bourgeois economic understanding even when it concedes ground. The argument also deploys Trotsky's insight that a nationalised planned economy requires workers' democracy to function, using the Soviet and Venezuelan experiences as negative examples. The piece situates itself within the Marxist tradition's long-standing critique of Stalinism and state capitalism, rejecting both the bureaucratic model and the Chinese variant as viable alternatives to capitalism. The theoretical framework is thus one of revolutionary Marxism as opposed to both reformist social democracy and authoritarian state capitalism.

Conjunctural Relevance

The article was published in October 2018, a moment of acute political turbulence: the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the Brexit referendum, Trump's election, the escalation of US-China trade war, and the ongoing devastation of the Syrian and Yemeni conflicts. Woods points to specific data: China's growth rate falling to 6.5 percent against a required 8 percent to absorb population growth; the Congo civil war's 5 million dead receiving minimal coverage; Trump's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and the INF treaty. The conjuncture is defined by the breakdown of the post-Cold War settlement — the "peace dividend" never materialised, austerity was imposed on southern Europe by Germany, and the oligarchic class consolidated its power everywhere. Fukuyama's own trajectory — from neoconservative Iraq War supporter to critic of financial deregulation and the euro — is used as a barometer of the system's legitimacy crisis.

Where the Argument Continues

The article leaves several threads open. The relationship between overproduction and the tendency of the rate of profit to fall is gestured at but not developed — Woods corrects Fukuyama's Keynesian confusion but does not elaborate the full Marxist theory of crisis. The analysis of China as state capitalism is asserted rather than argued in depth; the reader would need to consult other IDOM articles on China's economic contradictions and the nature of the Chinese state. The question of how the working class will move from experience to revolutionary consciousness — the "hard school" of learning — is stated as a general principle but not concretised for the current conjuncture. The critique of "populism" as an empty category could be extended into a more systematic analysis of the far right's relationship to capitalist crisis. These threads are taken up in other IDOM articles on the trade war, the nature of Trumpism, and the crisis of social democracy.

Connections

• Marx, Capital Volume III — the tendency of the rate of profit to fall and the theory of crisis
• Trotsky, The Revolution Betrayed — the analysis of bureaucratic degeneration and the need for workers' democracy in a planned economy
• Alan Woods, The History of Philosophy — the broader philosophical framework of dialectical materialism against which Fukuyama's Hegelianism is implicitly measured
• IDOM articles on China — for the state capitalism thesis and the contradictions of Chinese accumulation
• IDOM articles on the 2008 crisis and austerity — for the concrete analysis of financialisation and the eurozone
• Against the Stream episodes on Trump, Brexit, and the far right — for the conjunctural analysis of "populism" and political instability

Key Quotes

1. "It is significant that such a prominent defender of capitalism and critic of socialism should now draw the conclusion that Marxist analysis of capitalist crisis was basically correct, that the unrestrained pursuit of free-market economics has led to mass impoverishment on the one hand and the complete domination of the world by an irresponsible and obscenely rich capitalist oligarchy on the other."

2. "Fukuyama behaves like a doctor who, after giving a very comprehensive list of the symptoms of his patient, fails to provide a prescription for a cure."

3. "The political and social ferment that is shaking the whole world to its foundations is only a symptom of a far deeper crisis: not the crisis of neoliberalism, which is only a particular form of capitalism, but a terminal crisis of the capitalist system itself."

4. "Trotsky pointed out that the nationalised planned economy needs democracy, just as the human body needs oxygen."

5. "This former liberal has lost all faith in the future of capitalism, but cannot see any viable alternative to it. His theoretical hopelessness is the expression of the hopelessness of the system itself."

6. "The future belongs, not to the effete and bankrupt bourgeoisie, that can see no further than the end of its own nose, but to the only really progressive force in society, that force which alone produces all the wealth of society: the working class."