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China a trade war the bourgeois can get behind

Marxist Analysis · 2026-05-13

Core Argument

The central thesis is that Trump's trade war with China represents not an aberration from capitalist norms but a rational, if disruptive, adjustment of inter-imperialist relations driven by the crisis of world capitalism. The article argues that the US ruling class broadly supports the objective of containing China's technological advance, even if it disagrees with Trump's unilateral and chaotic tactics. The trade war is therefore a "trade war the bourgeois can get behind" — a calculated attempt to preserve the technological monopoly of the advanced capitalist powers, not a protectionist deviation from free-market orthodoxy. The deeper claim is that such protectionist tensions are inevitable expressions of the sharpening contradictions between imperialist powers as the global capitalist system enters a period of prolonged crisis.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis is rooted in the Marxist theory of imperialism, particularly Lenin's conception of inter-imperialist rivalry as an inherent feature of capitalism in its monopoly stage. The article draws on the classical Marxist understanding that the state serves the long-term interests of the capitalist class, even when individual capitalists or factions are temporarily harmed. This is deployed to explain why the US bourgeoisie accepts tariffs that hurt some multinationals: the strategic goal of blocking China's ascent to high-tech production outweighs short-term losses.

The piece also implicitly relies on the Marxist theory of combined and uneven development. China's rise is presented not as a challenge to capitalism but as the latest expression of how late-developing capitalist powers catch up through state intervention, technology transfer, and — crucially — the same methods the earlier imperialist powers used. The hypocrisy of Western complaints about Chinese state subsidies and intellectual property theft is exposed by showing that Britain, the US, and the EU all built their technological dominance through similar means.

There is also a clear application of the Marxist analysis of the capitalist state as an instrument of class rule. Trump's erratic behaviour is explained not as personal irrationality but as a symptom of the ruling class's loss of control over its own political representatives — a phenomenon the article links to the broader crisis of bourgeois democracy.

Conjunctural Relevance

The article was written in June 2018, at the precise moment when Trump's first tranche of tariffs on $46bn of Chinese goods was announced and China retaliated with equivalent measures. The analysis correctly identifies several features that have since become defining characteristics of the trade war:

  • The targeting of "industrially significant technologies" (semiconductors, plastics) rather than consumer goods, reflecting the strategic aim of blocking China's technological upgrading rather than reducing the trade deficit.
  • The bipartisan nature of anti-China sentiment in the US, exemplified by the Senate's 85-10 vote to block Trump's ZTE deal — a vote that cut across party lines.
  • China's asymmetric retaliatory capacity, forced to target agricultural and energy imports rather than high-tech components it cannot yet produce domestically.
  • The disruptive effect on established alliances, with Trump's simultaneous attacks on G7 allies preventing a united imperialist front against China.

The article's prediction that escalation would follow — that Trump would draw up a further $200bn list of tariffs — proved accurate. More importantly, the underlying thesis that these tensions reflect "contradictions between the main imperialist powers arising out of the crisis of world capitalism" has been borne out by the persistence and intensification of the trade war through successive US administrations.

Where the Argument Continues

The article leaves several threads that are developed elsewhere in the IDOM corpus:

  • The nature of the Chinese state: The article treats China as a capitalist power engaged in inter-imperialist rivalry, but does not elaborate on the specific character of Chinese state capitalism or its relationship to the global accumulation process. This is developed in other IDOM articles on China's economic model and the role of the Communist Party as a capitalist ruling party.

  • The crisis of bourgeois democracy: The observation that Trump, Brexit, and the Italian elections represent a "destabilising of the political regime" is stated but not theorised in depth. This connects to broader Marxist analyses of the crisis of bourgeois parliamentary democracy under conditions of capitalist stagnation.

  • The working class response: The article notes that the strength of the working class is one factor preventing open war between the major powers, but does not develop a strategic perspective on how the working class should respond to trade wars and inter-imperialist rivalry. This is taken up in articles on socialist internationalism and the need for a united working-class response to protectionism.

  • The trajectory of the trade war: The article's analysis of the initial 2018 tariffs is a starting point. Later IDOM articles trace the escalation through subsequent rounds of tariffs, the Phase One deal, and the ongoing technological decoupling in semiconductors and AI.

Connections

This article should be read alongside:

  • Lenin, Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism — The theoretical foundation for understanding inter-imperialist rivalry as an inevitable feature of monopoly capitalism.
  • Trotsky, The Permanent Revolution — For the theory of combined and uneven development that explains how late-developing capitalist powers like China can leapfrog stages.
  • Other IDOM articles on China's economic rise — Particularly those analysing the specific character of Chinese state capitalism and its insertion into the global division of labour.
  • IDOM analyses of the crisis of bourgeois democracy — Articles on Trump, Brexit, and the rise of the far right that develop the connection between capitalist stagnation and political instability.
  • Against the Stream episodes on US-China tensions — For more detailed discussion of the geopolitical and military dimensions of the rivalry, including the South China Sea and Taiwan.

Key Quotes

  1. "The US ruling class (as well as that of Europe and Japan) is worried about China developing new, high-tech production. They're particularly worried about Chinese state aid to high-tech sectors. The fear is that China will be able to compete in industries where the advanced capitalist countries have had an advantage up until now."

  2. "Of course, when the Chinese do it, it's theft, when the West does it, it's business. Rather than sharing out the wealth of human progress with the Chinese, the imperialist powers would like to keep their competitive edge and force the Chinese to work with yesterday's technologies."

  3. "There has been criticism of Trump's policy in US ruling circles, but it's mainly in the realm of how Trump is fighting the trade war, rather than the fact he is fighting it."

  4. "These protectionist tensions reflect contradictions between the main imperialist powers arising out of the crisis of world capitalism. The crisis sharpens competition over market shares between the imperialist powers. At the same time, it also sharpens the social contradictions within these nations as austerity bites."

  5. "Trump is a protectionist but his actions only reflect greater historical forces at play. He is both a result of the end of the post-war trade consensus and another nail in its coffin."

  6. "In the past this would have led to war; but nuclear weapons, the strength of the working class and the overwhelming military might of the US, mean that an open, armed conflict between the major powers is ruled out. Instead, they will have to resort to other forms of conflict, such as proxy wars, but also economic warfare, which is what the Trump is attempting to wage on the Chinese."