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Beware the Ides of March comethfor capitalism

Marxist Analysis · 2026-05-13

Core Argument

The central thesis is that British capitalism is entering a pre-revolutionary phase, where the surface-level drama of political betrayals and leadership crises masks a deeper class polarisation. Rob Sewell argues that the strike wave of 2022–23 is not a cyclical uptick but a qualitative shift: workers are being driven beyond the limits of what reformism can deliver. The article claims that Keir Starmer's Labour government — should it win the next election — will not restore social peace but will instead accelerate confrontation, because capitalism can no longer afford the reforms of the post-war settlement. The Ides of March metaphor is not decorative: it signals that the system itself is the target, and that the task is not to replace one faction of the ruling class with another, but to overthrow the mode of production.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis draws on the classical Marxist understanding of the relationship between economic crisis and political instability. It does not deploy the tendency of the rate of profit to fall or overaccumulation explicitly, but the argument is implicitly grounded in the recognition that inflation at over 10%, combined with a decade of austerity, represents a structural crisis of capital accumulation — not a policy error. The piece sits firmly in the Trotskyist tradition, particularly the theory of the united front and the critique of centrism: the Labour left is condemned not for its intentions but for its refusal to break with the right when it had the chance, thereby demoralising its own base. The article also draws on the Marxist theory of the state, treating Starmer's purge of Corbyn not as a personal betrayal but as the ruling class reasserting control over the labour movement's political expression. The reference to the "school of Sir Keir Starmer" echoes Lenin's argument that the masses learn through disappointment with reformist leaders.

Conjunctural Relevance

The article is written in February 2023, at a specific conjuncture: the aftermath of the 1 February day of action, the RCN and UCU pausing strikes to negotiate, Sunak's offer of a 5% pay rise, and Nicola Sturgeon's sudden resignation. The piece correctly identifies that the strike wave — measured by working days lost — had reached levels not seen since the miners' strikes of the 1980s. It notes that the SNP's poll lead over Labour in Scotland had collapsed to just two points (29% to 27%), and that only 30% of Scots rated the Holyrood government positively. The article also situates the Northern Ireland protocol negotiations as a site of intra-bourgeois conflict, with Sunak facing revolt from both the DUP and Tory Brexiteers. The key conjunctural claim is that Starmer's coming government will be a "government of crisis" — not because of his personal failings, but because the objective limits of capitalist reform have been reached. The data on inflation, food prices, and the scale of strike action is used to support this, rather than to predict electoral outcomes.

Where the Argument Continues

The article leaves several threads open. First, it does not analyse the internal dynamics of the strike wave in detail — which unions are leading, what rank-and-file committees exist, and how the bureaucracy is containing or channelling the movement. This is taken up in other IDOM articles from early 2023, particularly those covering the RCN ballot disputes and the UCU's four-day strike strategy. Second, the piece gestures towards Scotland but does not develop a full analysis of the SNP's crisis or the relationship between the independence movement and class struggle — a gap filled by Against the Stream episodes from March and April 2023. Third, the article does not address the international dimension: the crisis of British capitalism is part of a broader global downturn, and readers should consult IDOM's coverage of the French pension strikes and the German rail disputes from the same period. The argument about Starmer's government of crisis is developed further in Sewell's subsequent piece, "Starmer's Labour: The Prisoner of Capitalism" (April 2023).

Connections

  • Lenin, Left-Wing Communism: An Infantile Disorder — for the theory of how masses learn through disappointment with reformists.
  • Trotsky, The Transitional Program — for the strategic orientation towards united fronts and the refusal to tail the trade union bureaucracy.
  • IDOM, "The Strike Wave and the Role of the Trade Union Bureaucracy" (January 2023) — for a deeper analysis of the internal dynamics of the 2022–23 strikes.
  • IDOM, "Starmer's Labour: The Prisoner of Capitalism" (April 2023) — for the continuation of the argument about the coming government of crisis.
  • Against the Stream, Episode 12 (March 2023) — for the discussion of the SNP crisis and the Scottish independence movement.
  • The Economist, "The New Moderation" (February 2023) — the liberal commentary the article explicitly rebuts; useful as a counterpoint.

Key Quotes

  1. "The fact is that capitalism can no longer afford the reforms of the past."

  2. "Starmer is clearly in the pocket of big business. He will do their bidding. Nevertheless, workers will likely vote for his party without enthusiasm, holding their nose, so as to get the Tories out."

  3. "The 'left' within the Labour Party represents no more than a frightened shadow. They are responsible for the right's victory. When they were in control, they were terrified of clearing out the Blairites, as we argued for. Instead, they talked about 'unity' and a 'broad church'. Now they are paying the price for their spinelessness."

  4. "Millions will be radicalised, having gone through the 'school' of Sir Keir Starmer. Many will draw revolutionary conclusions."

  5. "The crisis we have today is only a foretaste of what is to come."

  6. "The Ides of March has arrived for capitalism. This is no Shakespearian play, but the daily experience for millions of working people."