After the lockdown what will capitalism look like
Core Argument¶
The central thesis is that the coronavirus pandemic has not created a new crisis ex nihilo, but has instead detonated the pre-existing contradictions of a capitalist system already in an epoch of decay. The lockdown is not a temporary interruption of normal functioning, but the trigger for a prolonged depression on the scale of the 1930s — and potentially worse, given the genuinely global integration of production and finance. The article explicitly rejects the 'V-shaped recovery' narrative as an ideological projection of capitalist wishfulness, arguing that the slump will be structural, not cyclical. The real question is not whether the system will rebound, but which class will pay for the destruction.
Theoretical Grounding¶
The analysis draws on the Marxist theory of crisis, specifically the concept of overproduction as the underlying cause of the slump. The article distinguishes between cyclical recessions — the "rhythmic breathing" of the business cycle — and an organic crisis of capitalism, a term derived from Gramsci but deployed here in its classical Marxist sense: a crisis in which the system's normal mechanisms of recovery (devaluation of capital, restoration of profitability) are blocked by the sheer scale of accumulated contradictions. The argument also deploys Marx's theory of money and value to explain why mass money-printing need not cause immediate inflation: money is "ultimately a representation of value," and with demand collapsing faster than supply, deflationary pressures dominate. The critique of Keynesianism is sharp: you cannot force capitalists to invest when the rate of profit is too low. This is a direct application of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall — not named explicitly, but present in the analysis of excess capacity, idle cash reserves, and the failure of quantitative easing to reach the real economy.
Conjunctural Relevance¶
The article was written in May 2020, at the peak of the first global lockdown, and is remarkably prescient about the trajectory that followed. It correctly identifies that the 2008 crash was not resolved but merely papered over by debt-fuelled expansion, leaving China and the advanced economies "drowning in debt" and without fiscal ammunition. The prediction that the slump would be genuinely global — unlike 2008, when China could act as a locomotive — has been borne out by the uneven and stuttering recovery. The article's warnings about zombie businesses kept alive by cheap credit, the existential threat to shale oil, and the contagion of debt defaults all proved accurate. Its analysis of inflation is particularly sophisticated: it predicted that inflation would not appear immediately but could emerge later as supply chains shattered and protectionism rose — exactly the dynamic that produced the 2021-2023 inflation spike. The article also foresaw the intensification of automation and remote working as weapons against labour, and the wave of strikes that would follow as workers sought to defend living standards.
Where the Argument Continues¶
The article leaves several threads open. The most important is the political question: how will the working class organise to resist the coming attacks? The article ends with a call to join the struggle, but does not develop a concrete strategy for the transition from resistance to revolution. This is taken up in subsequent IDOM articles on the need for a transitional programme, the role of the vanguard party, and the experience of the 2020-2023 strike wave. The analysis of inflation is also deepened in later pieces, particularly those examining the 2021-2022 cost-of-living crisis and the Bank of England's interest rate hikes. The question of geopolitical fragmentation — the breakdown of global supply chains and the rise of protectionism — is touched on but not fully developed; this is addressed in IDOM articles on the Ukraine war and the US-China trade conflict. The theoretical grounding in the law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall is made explicit in other IDOM texts, notably those by Alan Woods and Fred Weston.
Connections¶
This article should be read alongside Marx's Capital Volume 3, Part 3 on the law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall, and Engels's supplement on the stock exchange. Lenin's Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism provides the framework for understanding the epoch of decay. Within the IDOM corpus, Alan Woods's The Coronavirus Pandemic and the Crisis of Capitalism (2020) and Fred Weston's The Economic Crisis and the Fight for Socialism (2021) develop the same themes in greater theoretical depth. The article also connects to the broader Marxist tradition of crisis theory: Mandel's Late Capitalism, Shaikh's Capitalism: Competition, Conflict, Crises, and the work of the International Marxist Tendency on the 2008 crash. The Economist editorial cited in the article is worth reading as a primary source for bourgeois crisis management thinking.
Key Quotes¶
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"We are in an epoch of capitalist decay, facing an organic crisis of capitalism: one in which the system is caught in a vicious downward spiral; where falling employment leads to falling demand – which in turn leads to falling investment, and thus a further fall in employment, and so on and so forth."
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"Capitalism is a system of production for profit. The capitalists will only invest if it is profitable to do so. And for over a decade now, the world economy has been chiefly characterised by a glut of commodities, of idle corporate cash reserves, and of 'excess capacity'."
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"The vast bulk of money in the economy in fact comes in the form of credit, created by private banks in response to demands from businesses and households for loans and mortgages. But with 'effective demand' – in the form of investment and consumption – falling, the demand for credit is rapidly diminishing too."
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"What we can say for certain is that any vestiges of stability will quickly evaporate. Volatility and turbulence are the 'new normal' when it comes to the world economy. Bouts of inflation will be layered on top of a general picture of depression and deflation."
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"None of three suggested prongs of attack is 'neutral'. At the end of the day, there is a class question to answer. Taxes, for example, are not abstract numbers. They must fall either on the capitalist class or the working class."
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"The current slump, then, is no mere ephemeral episode. Rather, it represents a fundamental turning point in world history; in the development – and decline – of capitalism. This hard truth, if it hasn't already, will soon burn itself onto the brains of even the most thick-skulled of the capitalist class."