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2019 new year new crisis

Marxist Analysis · 2026-05-13

Core Argument

The central thesis is that capitalism is entering a new and more dangerous phase of crisis — one qualitatively deeper than 2008 — and that the political convulsions across Europe, the US, and the emerging economies are not separate national dramas but concentrated expressions of the same underlying economic contradictions. Woods argues that the bourgeoisie has exhausted the traditional instruments for managing crises (near-zero interest rates, quantitative easing, state bailouts), leaving it without a plan and facing a breakdown of the post-war political order. The article claims that the spontaneous upsurge of mass movements — most dramatically in France — demonstrates the objective possibility of socialist revolution, but that this possibility remains unrealised due to the crisis of proletarian leadership. The political task of Marxists is therefore to provide that leadership before the convulsions of capitalism take an even more destructive form.

Theoretical Grounding

The analysis is rooted in the classical Marxist understanding of the relationship between economics and politics: "politics in the last analysis is concentrated economics." Woods draws on the Marxist theory of crisis, particularly the idea that capitalism's attempts to resolve one crisis merely displace and deepen the contradictions for the next. The argument that the bourgeoisie has "used up all the instruments" traditionally deployed against recession is a concrete application of the tendency for the means of crisis-management to become exhausted under the weight of their own contradictions — a dynamic Marx analysed in the context of credit and fictitious capital.

The article also deploys Trotsky's 1938 formulation that "the crisis of humanity reduces itself to the crisis of leadership of the proletariat," situating the current moment within the tradition of revolutionary Marxism's analysis of the relationship between objective revolutionary conditions and subjective revolutionary consciousness. The critique of reformism — that its "cowardly evasions and half measures" will impart a "more convulsive, painful and destructive character" to the crisis — reflects the classical Marxist position that reformism, far from mitigating capitalism's destructiveness, prolongs and intensifies it.

Conjunctural Relevance

The article is written at the start of 2019, and its analysis is tightly bound to that conjuncture. Woods identifies several concrete developments:

  • Brexit: The UK's political establishment is described as "completely bankrupt," with no plan for exit and the real possibility of a no-deal departure that would produce "unprecedented economic, social and political chaos."
  • France and the gilets jaunes: Macron's popularity collapse from over 70% to below 20% is presented as the direct result of mass revolutionary action. His €10bn concession is read as a sign of weakness, not strength.
  • Germany: Merkel's resignation as CDU leader is treated as a symptom of the collapse of the traditional two-party system and growing social polarisation.
  • Italy: The standoff between the Five Star–League government and the European Commission over the budget is described as unresolved and merely delayed, with the implicit threat of social explosion.
  • US–China trade war: The conflict is rooted in Chinese overproduction (particularly steel) and the slowing of China's growth rate to 6.5%, which is dangerously low for its demographic needs.
  • Stock market volatility: The S&P 500's 15% fall between November and December 2018, Apple's revenue warning, and the contraction of China's manufacturing sector are cited as evidence of "extreme nervousness" about the world economy.
  • Trump's isolationism: The withdrawal from Syria, the government shutdown, and the conflict with the Federal Reserve are read as signs of a US ruling class in disarray, with Trump's "lucky streak" about to end.

Where the Argument Continues

The article leaves several threads that are developed elsewhere in the IDOM corpus:

  • The crisis of leadership: This is the article's central political claim, but it is stated rather than developed. The argument that "only the Marxists are capable of providing the leadership" is a programmatic assertion that requires elaboration — which is provided in numerous IDOM articles on party-building, the united front, and the fight against reformism.
  • The gilets jaunes: The article treats the movement as a spontaneous explosion without a clear programme. Subsequent IDOM articles and Against the Stream episodes analysed the movement's trajectory, its internal contradictions, and the attempts by revolutionaries to intervene.
  • The eurozone crisis: The article notes that the Italy–EU standoff is "not resolved — only delayed." Later IDOM analysis followed the evolution of this conflict through the pandemic and the post-COVID recovery fund.
  • The trade war: The US–China conflict is identified as a "clear manifestation" of inter-imperialist rivalry. This is a theme developed in depth in subsequent IDOM articles on the new Cold War and the geopolitical realignment of the 2020s.

Connections

  • Trotsky, The Transitional Program (1938): The article's central political claim — that the crisis of humanity is the crisis of proletarian leadership — is drawn directly from this text.
  • Marx and Engels, The Communist Manifesto: Woods explicitly references the Manifesto's prediction of the unification of the world market as the theoretical foundation for his critique of isolationism.
  • Alan Woods, The History of Philosophy and Reason in Revolt: Woods's broader theoretical work on the relationship between objective conditions and subjective consciousness provides the philosophical underpinning for the article's analysis of spontaneity and leadership.
  • IDOM articles on the 2008 crisis: The article's claim that the 2008 crisis was never resolved but merely displaced is a recurring theme in the IDOM corpus, developed in articles from 2008–2012.
  • Against the Stream episodes on France and the gilets jaunes: The RCI's podcast series provides ongoing analysis of the movements the article identifies as key flashpoints.

Key Quotes

  1. "All the sacrifices and pain of the last 10 years have not solved the crisis, but only increased the suffering, impoverishment and desperation of the masses, while a tiny minority of parasites have acquired obscene levels of wealth."

  2. "A decade ago we predicted that all the attempts of governments to restore the economic equilibrium would only serve to destroy the social and political equilibrium."

  3. "Everything suggests that, when it comes, the next recession will be far worse than the crisis of 2008. The main reason for this is that, over the last decade, the bourgeoisie has used up all the instruments that have been traditionally utilised to prevent recessions, or to limit their duration and depth."

  4. "The cowardly evasions and half measures of the reformists, far from solving the crisis, will merely impart to it an even more convulsive, painful and destructive character."

  5. "In 1938, Trotsky wrote that one could reduce the crisis of humanity to the crisis of leadership of the proletariat. That statement is even more true today than when it was written."

  6. "For decades we have been swimming against the stream. Just to maintain our forces intact in that period was a considerable feat. But now the tide of history has begun to turn. Instead of swimming against the current, we are beginning to swim with it."