2,000-Jet Shortage: Boeing Warns Global Supply Squeeze Will Last Into The 2030s
American plane makerBoeinghas forecasted that it will see a continued increase in demand for bothnarrowbodyandwidebodyaircraft for the next few decades, and estimates that in 2026 alone, there is an undersupply of approximately 2,000 aircraft. Overall, the largest market remains China, which accounts for around 21% of all aircraft deliveries.
Boeing shared its current market forecast, which highlights strong global jet demand, and over the next two decades, the plane maker's forecast sits almost identical to what it did this time last year. With Boeing at theFarnborough Airshow, the company outlined a forecast of 43,625 aircraft deliveries between now and 2045.
Market Projection Released At The Farnborough Airshow¶
While Boeing andAirbusgo head to head to dominate the global aviation market, Boeing has suggested that the need for jetliners and freighters will continue to rise, and that alone the industry will need a total of 33,545 single-aisle jets between now and 2045, with an additional 7,715 widebody planes, 930 freighters, and 1,435 regional jets.
Overall,air passenger trafficis set to grow approximately 2.3% this year, which sits at less than half of the growth rate recorded in 2025. This rebound will continue to grow to approximately 6-7% by 2027, and then 5-6% in 2028. It is expected that over the next two decades, passenger traffic will grow by up to 4%. As reported by Reuters, Boeing Commercial Marketing Vice President Darren Hulstexplained:
"Our outlook is that passenger traffic globally will be where it would have been by the end of 2028."
"Our outlook is that passenger traffic globally will be where it would have been by the end of 2028."
Undersupply Of 2,000 Aircraft In 2026¶
Worldwide, the demand for new aircraft continues to exceed what planemakers can produce, and last year passenger numbers had achieved pre-pandemic levels; however, new jet production remains below the 2018 output. This means that close to 2,000 aircraft are undersupplied, with the majority of this number occupied bysingle-aisle aircraft.
It is forecasted that thisshortage of narrowbodieswill be unlikely to clear before the end of this decade, and that widebody shortages could remain until early in the 2030s. This undersupply is split between both replacement and growth demand, with Boeing expecting a total number of deliveries to reach 21,475 that will replace older planes, and an additional 22,150 are to support airline fleet expansion.
Overall, the global jet fleet will rise to 50,000 jets by 2045, an increase of 22,000 when compared to the estimated 28,000 planes operating in 2025. New generation planes have accelerated to 92% from 32% when analyzed byReuters.
China And Eurasia Demand The Largest Share Of New Aircraft Deliveries¶
Considering the global aircraft market demand, China remains the largest market where more than 21% of aircraft are on order. A full breakdown of the marketby Boeing is detailed in the table below:
Market
% Of Market Share For Aircraft Deliveries
China
21%
Eurasia
20%
North America
19%
South/Southeast Asia
19%
Middle East
10%
Africa
10%
Latin America
6%
Oceania
5%
Northeast Asia
5%
Boeing believes that this latest outlook is a reflection of the ongoing constraints in the global supply chain and manufacturing capacities. Additionally, the ongoing certification delays that the US plane maker has faced have slowed the output of MAX and 787 aircraft, while also stalling the737 MAX 7, MAX 10, and777-9family of airplanes.
As markets have continued to thaw post-pandemic, the increase in travel demand from both trade, tourism, and airline expansion has continued to fuel the demand for new aircraft, paired with the need from airlines to look at alternative ways to improve sustainability, lowering carbon emissions by retiring older aircraft, while also considering new aircraft types that cansupport thinner routes, such as the Boeing 787, MAX 10, andAirbus A321XLR.
While the current forecast does show that 2026 will still sit with an undersupply of approximately 2,000 aircraft, this continued aircraft pipeline of orders, building on the need for thousands of new jets across the next several decades, is a promising sign for Boeing, which over the last few years has faced challenging headwinds.