Tanker Market: Can Kazakh Crude Fill the Gaps?¶
inHellenic Shipping News10/08/2026
According to Gibson, “loadings halted three times in July, first on the 21st after a drone struck a tanker on the mooring. Barely two days later, further strikes hit two tankers, with one catching fire whilst loading. Kazakhstan, with few and constrained alternative export routes, was forced to briefly cut production as its main outlet came under pressure. So far, each outage has cleared within days, with damage to infrastructure remaining limited. July exports consequently fell to around 1.3 mbd, still above levels seen during the winter months, but well down from the May peak of roughly 1.9 mbd and below the 2025 average of about 1.5 mbd. Loadings have continued to decline into August as periodic outages disrupt the programme. Flows have come under pressure evenly, with volumes to the Med, Northwest Europe, and Asia declining”.
Source: Gibson Shipbrokers Ltd
The shipbroker added that “as the security situation has deteriorated, some vessels have gone dark to load. At the same time, the number of vessels working the region has risen, with the growing freight premium drawing more owners into the trade. Others are staying away, deterred by the apparently indiscriminate nature of the attacks. Vessels have been hit despite their owners having no prior involvement in Russian trade, and in some cases despite those owners being domiciled in countries allied to Ukraine. That lack of an obvious pattern has added to the uncertainty. TD6 has risen to over WS530, which equates to around $400,000/day on a round voyage basis, rivalling rates seen in the Middle East. West Africa’s TD20, the Suezmax benchmark, meanwhile, has eased in recent weeks, widening the Black Sea premium to over $300,000/day. Cargo war risk cover for CPC has jumped roughly fivefold in three weeks, from around 0.2% of cargo value to around 1%”.
“So far restarts have taken mere days, and with Kazakh crude having nowhere else to go at scale, any damage to infrastructure will be repaired as a priority. Yet, disruptions have in recent times lasted longer than anticipated, with last winter’s running to three months. Should attacks successfully strike the SBMs, the port, or the pipeline itself, another relief valve for the global oil market could disappear. Suezmaxes have so far benefitted from the disruption, but any longer-term decline in volumes from yet another outlet could cut both ways. A prolonged campaign striking tankers trying to load at CPC could have a similar effect”, Gibson concluded.Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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