Strait of Hormuz — a Renewed Blockade Impairs Dry-Bulk Crossings¶
inDry Bulk Market,International Shipping News07/08/2026
FREIGHT MARKET OVERVIEW | BDI & SEGMENT METRICS
Driven by a robust performance in the Capesize sector that offset softer results in the Supramax and Handysize segments, the BDI dipped slightly by 11 points to 2,732 (+59 day-on-day, −11 WoW). Specifically, Capesize continued its upward trend, pushing the BCI up to 4,564 (+268 day-on-day, +364 WoW) and boosting average C5TC earnings to around $37,892/day (+$3,305 WoW). The Panamax market also showed strength, with the BPI firming to 2,087 (+47 day-on-day, +63 WoW). In contrast, Supramax proved to be the week’s main underperformer, sliding to 1,609 (−1 day-on-day, −85 WoW), while Handysize also lost ground, easing to 887 (−3 day-on-day, −18 WoW).
All data reflect market conditions as of 31 Jul 2026 unless otherwise stated.
CAPESIZE | ANALYSIS
The BCI extended its rally to 4,564 (+268 day-on-day; +364 week-on-week), a second consecutive strong week, and average C5TC earnings rose to $37,892/day (+$2,435 day-on-day; +$3,305 week-on-week). The gains were Pacific-led: C5 (West Australia–Qingdao) jumped to $14.45/mt (+$1.82 WoW, about +14%), while C3 (Tubarao–Qingdao) firmed more modestly to $34.81/mt (+$0.45 WoW).
Supply / Demand – the forward read: As of 31 July 2026, expected demand on C3 (Tubarão–Qingdao) remains above projected vessel supply through most of August. The two curves converge around 27–29 August, after which projected supply moves above expected demand and the surplus widens into the first week of September. On C5 (West Australia–Qingdao), projected supply excluding laden vessels remains above expected demand through most of the 15-day window. The curves converge around 12–13 August, but total projected supply rises sharply thereafter and finishes well above expected demand by 15 August.
The global Capesize ballaster fleet increased to 605 vessels (+2% WoW). Australasia remained the largest ballast region with 224 vessels (+3% WoW), while the Indian Ocean/South Africa increased to 184 (+12% WoW). In contrast, ballast numbers fell in the North Atlantic (-13% WoW), South Atlantic (-8% WoW) and East Asia/NOPAC (-5% WoW). The regional distribution indicates that vessel availability remains weighted towards Australasia and the Indian Ocean, while ballast availability in the Atlantic continued to tighten.
Capesize tonne-mile demand held firm around 102–103%, but the VLOC index fell sharply to about 83% – the widest gap between the two classes in months.
PANAMAX | ANALYSIS
The BPI firmed to 2,087 (+47 day-on-day; +63 week-on-week). Earnings rose on the fronthaul and Atlantic routes — P1A_82 +5% WoW to $21,205/day, P2A_82 +5% to $30,840/day and P3A_82 +7% to $15,618/day — while P5_82 (−2%) and P6_82 (−2%) eased; the P5TC average rose 3% WoW to $18,780/day. Most routes trade well above year-ago levels (P6_82 +33% YoY).
The metrics carry a forward caution. ECSA ballasters climbed again to 323 (+8% WoW), and USG/USEC/ECCAN open tonnage jumped 45% WoW to 42.
Supply / Demand – the forward read: The balances look much like last week, but the implication is directional. P5 remains the segment’s anchor, with cumulative supply well below expected demand across the window – the main reason the Pacific round can hold even as ballasters build. P3 keeps a clear supply surplus that should cap the transatlantic; P1/P2/P7 tighten only later in the window; and P6 sits close to balance. Net, the curve supports the Pacific but leaves the Atlantic exposed if the ECSA tonnage build persists.
Panamax and Post-Panamax tonne-mile indices declined to around 96–100% by the end of July, from above 113–120% in mid-month. Despite the softer tonne-mile reading, Panamax spot rates continued to strengthen. Whether those freight gains can be sustained will depend on a recovery in tonne-mile demand over the coming weeks.
SUPRAMAX | ANALYSIS
The BSI fell to 1,609 (−1 day-on-day; −85 week-on-week), reversing recent gains. Average S10TC earnings dropped 6% WoW to $18,302/day, with declines across most routes — S2 −9%, S3TC_63 −7%, S4A −7% and S5 −6%. The US Gulf routes S1C ($28,418/day) and S4A ($27,311/day) led lower, though year-on-year comparisons remain strongly positive (S1B +59% YoY).
Net vessel supply remained concentrated in the US Gulf/US East Coast (S4A/S1C), with 121 available vessels, while the Continent (S4B) increased to 76 (+17% WoW). East Coast South America (ECSA) continued to tighten, with net vessel supply falling to 26 vessels (-28% WoW). Meanwhile, congestion in North and Central China remained elevated at 167 vessels (+4% WoW), limiting the amount of vessel capacity immediately available to the Pacific market.
Supply / Demand – the forward read: Little changed week-on-week, and that is the point: supply surpluses still dominate the curve. As of 31 July 2026, cumulative projected vessel supply remains above expected demand throughout the forecast period on S4A/S1C (US Gulf/US East Coast), S4B (Continent) and S8/S10 (Pacific), with the supply-demand gap persisting across the forecast window. S5 (East Coast South America) follows a different pattern, with cumulative expected demand exceeding projected vessel supply through most of the forecast period. The two curves converge during the final days of the forecast, when cumulative projected supply moves marginally above expected demand.
A softer forward outlook is reinforced by fading tonne-mile momentum across the geared classes. This trend is highlighted by Handymax pulling back from its recent peak toward 123–130% and Supramax easing to around 104%, while Handysize continues to languish near 90%.
HANDYSIZE | ANALYSIS
The BHSI eased to 887 (−3 day-on-day; −18 week-on-week). Average HS7TC earnings slipped 2% WoW to $15,969/day. The softness was led by the South Atlantic (HS3_38 −4%, HS4_38 −7% WoW), while the Continent/Baltic and Pacific routes (HS1, HS2, HS5, HS6, HS7) were nearly flat. Year-on-year gains remain strong (HS6_38 +38%, HS7_38 +36% YoY).
Net vessel supply was highest in the UK Continent/Baltic (HS1/HS2, 119, +7% WoW) and the Far East (HS7, 104, +8% WoW); congestion firmed on the Continent (31, +35% WoW) and in North China (38, +9% WoW).
Supply / Demand – the forward read: As last week, forward supply-demand projections indicate a cumulative vessel supply surplus on HS1/HS2, HS5 and HS6 throughout most of the forecast period. HS7 (Far East) remains the exception, with expected demand exceeding projected supply during the early part of the forecast before the two curves converge towards the end of the period. Net vessel supply also increased in the UK Continent/Baltic (+7% WoW) and the Far East (+8% WoW), reflecting higher vessel availability than a week earlier.
OVERALL MARKET TREND | CONCLUSIONS
Key takeaway: Capesize maintained positive momentum on Pacific iron ore activity, while Panamax freight strengthened despite softer tonne-mile demand. In contrast, forward supply continued to exceed expected demand across most Supramax and Handysize benchmark routes, consistent with weaker market conditions in both segments.
Key risk: Forward supply surpluses remain most evident on Panamax P3, Supramax S4A/S1C, S4B and S8/S10, and Handysize HS1/HS2 and HS5, while Capesize C5 still shows cumulative supply above expected demand in the far window. The renewed US naval blockade of Iran (see Spotlight) is the principal geopolitical watch-item: it has roughly halved dry-bulk transits of the Strait of Hormuz since 13 July, and any broadening of Gulf disruption or sustained re-routing would intensify the risk to regional flows and rates.
Methodology: Analysis is based on data from The Signal Ocean Platform and AXSMarine, covering market prices, Capesize, Panamax, Supramax and Handysize insights, tonne-mile charts, forward supply-demand balances and waypoint transit counts for the Strait of Hormuz.Source: By Maria Bertzeletou, Signal Ocean,https://www.thesignalgroup.com/newsroom/market-insights-a-renewed-chapter-on-the-strikes-the-capesize-pacific-in-focus
- tweet
- Share