First Half 2026 Shipping Market Review: ClarkSea Index Up 61%¶
inInternational Shipping News04/07/2026
Strait of Hormuz closure continuing a theme of shipping at the “frontline” of geo-politicsStrong charter markets, with ClarkSea Index up 61% y-o-y at $38,717/dayLoss of volumes from Strait mitigated by alternative sources, disruption and distanceActive newbuild ordering, up 33% on the full year 2025 run rate with focus on tankers, gas and containersShipyard output up 14% y-o-y with Chinese shipbuilding capacity growingGreen transition consensus stalled with continued regulatory uncertainty
Geopolitical disruption was again the principal driver of market developments across first half 2026, as the Strait of Hormuz “closure” dominated the shipping landscape. With alternatives, distance and disruption more than mitigating loss in volumes through the Strait, the ClarkSea Index increased 61% y-o-y (+31% on 2H 2025) alongside very active S&P and newbuild market (>150 VLCCs ordered).The 95% drop in transits through the critical Strait of Hormuz “chokepoint” (20% of global oil supply) from March triggered material maritime disruption and operational stress, becoming the dominant issue for energy shipping and the global economy and continuing a theme of shipping at the “frontline” of geo-politics. Despite reduced cargo volumes (in oil, gas, chemicals, fertiliser), a range of mitigating factors have meant a ‘net positive’ impact on the overall shipping market “balance sheet”. Replacement volumes bypassing the Strait, additional energy exports from other sources (e.g. the US, sanctions waivers), a shift to longer-haul voyages (e.g. US-Asia, compounded by Panama Canal delays), the impact of ships stuck inside the Gulf (initially ~1,000 ‘internationally trading’ ships), waiting outside and re-positioning inefficiencies have all contributed. After the US-Iran deal in late June, traffic through the Strait has picked up (see SIN for latest) but remains below typical levels (oil and bunker prices are now at pre-conflict levels), leaving a complex set of potential scenarios ahead (see materials on SIN). A ‘reopening’ scenario from mid-year with good volume recovery but some lingering inefficiencies might be the best scenario for markets, with initial rate upside and improved volumes, a period of inventory re-stocking supportive to medium-term tanker demand, and (hopefully) avoiding “worst case” outcomes for the world economy. Longer-term impacts from the conflict are tricky to judge – potentially a further focus on energy security (e.g. offshore, diversification, storage, control of tonnage). Hormuz aside, other supply/demand factors have remained important, including continuing Red Sea re-routing, Russian energy trade patterns, the sanctioned fleet (~24% of tanker capacity), evolving US tariff policy, growing dry bulk volumes from Guinea, VLCC sector consolidation and developments in the Chinese economy.Across the sectors, tankers saw their strongest rate environment on record (avg. $82,000/day, albeit some easing through Q2), with “disruption upside” from the Middle East conflict amplifying already supportive “fundamentals” (strong OPEC volumes, low fleet growth, consolidation, sanctions). LPG carrier cargo volumes were down but day rates surged to an all-time high (VLGC peaking at close to $200,000/day and averaging $100,000/day in 1H), while LNG carrier spot rates were firm at $77,000/day in 1H, above soft pre-conflict levels. Impacts from the conflict in other markets have generally been more ‘regional’ than ‘global’, although logistical disruption, tariff and supply chain concerns have supported some ‘frontloading’ of container volumes into the early summer (freight rates now highest on record outside of Covid and mid-2024) while charter rates, already elevated, have edged further upwards (+5%). The bulker market firmed after a seasonally slow start, with 1H earnings averaging $17,000/day, led by Capesize strength (peaking >$40,000/day) supported by firm bauxite and iron ore volumes. Car carriers are seeing renewed momentum (rates +65% to $70,000/day, Chinese exports up 50%), while offshore oil and gas vessel markets edged up (Offshore Index +4%) through 1H (energy security focus supporting longer term?).The global fleet continues to steadily expand (2026f: +5%) and the orderbook has also grown (+10% since start year), with the strong “cash build” across the industry supporting investment. By mid-year the orderbook totalled 207m CGT / $657bn (a record high in $m but 8% lower in tonnage vs 2008) and is now 21% of the fleet (up from 10% in 2020, below the 55% in 2008). Ordering has been particularly strong in tankers (150 VLCCs ordered so far in 2026, already the largest annual tally since 1973), LPG (record orders in Q2) and containerships (only slightly down on record pace of recent years), while bulker newbuild orders have been more moderate (orderbook only 14% of fleet, vs 25% for tankers and 40% for containerships, LNG and LPG). Shipyard output is increasing (+14% y-o-y in CGT) amid strongly expanding capacity in China (plus much smaller additions elsewhere with shipbuilding increasingly geopolitically strategic) and we expect output next year to surpass previous 2010 peak levels (but at a lower share of the fleet). In first half 2026, Chinese yards delivery market share was 57% basis CGT. S&P volumes are easing after a very active Q1 (still with record tonnage changing hands in 1H; VLCC very active), while pricing has moved higher (tanker / bulker pricing up 26% / 16% since start 2026). Recycling remains limited, and along with an ageing non-eco fleet offers a “release valve” for markets. The world shipping fleet and orderbook is now valued at $2.4 trillion, although ship finance markets remain highly competitive.Green transition remains an underlying trend despite regulatory uncertainty, a stalled global decarbonisation consensus, and a market focus on managing disruption. Uptake of alternative fuels continues in some segments but broadly has slowed, though there remains good momentum in Energy Saving Technologies (now fitted on 48% of fleet tonnage).The shipping industry is in an exceptionally strong cash position given the length and depth of elevated (disruption driven) markets, with a short-term outlook suggesting further “disruption upside” is possible. The geo-political environment, growing shipyard capacity and ageing fleets are making longer term judgements increasingly difficult. Best wishes for the summer.Source: Clarksons Research
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